Villanova 2007-2008 Season Preview

Jay Wright and Villanova come into the season in somewhat of an unusual situation. Despite graduating 3 senior starters that lead the team to an average of 25 wins a year during their tenure, Jay Wright is not exactly "rebuilding". At the same time, while he's got some talented freshman, he hasn't exactly "re-loaded" with a major roster overhaul. As it stands, we are ranked # 25 in the Pre-Season Coaches Poll and are expected to compete with the upper tier teams of the Big East and earn a fourth consecutive NCAA tourney appearance. For that to happen, Jay will have to find a way to blend the solid core of returning players who know his system with young newcomers that are loaded with talent. Luckily for everyone involved, he's got some help to lead the way in reigning Big East rookie of the year Scottie Reynolds, who averaged over 18 points per game in Big East conference games last season. Reynolds will team up with a pair of talented freshman (the Coreys) and a couple capable depth guys (Redding, Grant) to form one of the best (albeit the youngest) backcourts in the Big East. Jay has indicated that he will utilize this backcourt depth to run his signature 3/4 court trap more often, as seen in certain situations last year. As the unit gels together over the course of this season and into next season, they should become one of the best backcourts in the country. By January 2009 (if not earlier) they should remind you of the days of the 4-guard offense (although Jay will likely only play 3 of them at once) and the teams with Foye, Ray, Lowry and Nardi. These young guys are that good.

The frontcourt will be lead by 6' 8" Dante Cunningham and 6' 7" Shane Clark, both of whom are athletic and physical, but a bit undersized. Along with some young guys off the bench, they should be able to out-quick and out-jump most of their opponents but will likely struggle against bigger teams (Gtown, Lville, UConn, etc). But with most opponents keying on the backcourt and our 3-point shooters stretching the defense, they will have every opportunity to establish themselves in the paint. The frontcourt development, along with how quickly the freshman develop will determine how far this team can go. The range is literally NIT on the low end, all the way up to Sweet 16 and beyond on the high end. I expect somewhere in the middle - with the young guys struggling a bit early, but for Jay to have everyone firing on all cylinders by February, ending up with this team being a very dangerous 6 or 7 seed in the NCAA tournament. Either way, note that because this team has 0 seniors, from a fan's perspective this is somewhat of a dry run for Jay Wright to get any rotation and chemistry kinks worked out for next season, when this team will likely be a Top 10 team and competing for a Final Four (Similar to the elite eight team of 2006).

BACKCOURT
Scottie Reynolds, So. 6'2"
As a result of a humbling performance in the Pan American games this summer against quicker international guards, Scottie has slimmed down a bit, and as a result he is now even quicker going to the hoop. Expect him to pick up right where he left off last year - he will be this team's leader and go-to scorer but will also attract the opponent's top defender and plenty of help defense. However, if other guys can step up offensively as expected, it will be difficult for teams to focus solely on Reynolds. He will likely start the season as the primary point guard, but when Jay gets more comfortable with the freshmen running the show I expect that Scottie will play off the ball allowing Jay to set more plays and screens for him, all of which will make him more dangerous.

Corey Fisher, Fr. 6'1"
Meet your new favorite player. This kid is a Kyle Lowry clone. He's super quick and has that Lowry signature "you can't stop me" attitude, strength and toughness in taking the ball to the hoop over guys a foot taller than he is. He's also a premier defender like Lowry was, and you will love his hustle - he'll be diving all over the place out there. He's not as good as Lowry yet, but is already a better passer and has a much better outside shot than Kyle, so he has the potential to be better by the time he's done. He's been battling some minor tendinitis in his left knee and has missed some practice time so he will likely come off the bench early in the season, but I will be shocked if he's not this team's starting point guard by January.

Corey Stokes, Fr. 6'6"
This is the "other" Corey, who despite being a McDonald's All American, somehow didn't get as much hype as Fisher. But this kid could be a Villanova all-time great and the career 3-point shooting leader by the time he's done. That's IF he stays 4 years. And thats a big IF - he's a strong, athletic 6'6" kid with a great stroke and what they call an "NBA body" meaning he's got some bulk - if he develops a "drive to the basket" game, NBA scouts will have trouble keeping their hands off of him. Think of him as Allan Ray, but 4 inches taller. He's got incredible range and is also a great rebounder from the small forward position. He had 18 points and 10 rebounds in the exhibition game the other night, including four 3's. The only knocks on him have been that he doesn't always play hard every possession and that he kinda passively lets the game come to him instead of actively looking for his shot, but I'm sure Jay will set him straight. If he develops a Fisher/Reynolds type of intensity out there and learns to take over games, look out. He certainly has the talent to be a starter from day one but I can see Jay bringing him off the bench for a while until he improves his defensive intensity. Whether he starts or comes off the bench, he should be getting tons of minutes by the time the conference season starts.

Reggie Redding, So. 6'4"
Redding isn't supremely talented in any one area like some guys on this team but he does everything pretty well and Jay raves about his basketball IQ, his defense, and his poise on the court, so he figures to get a lot of minutes. He appears to be the new Will Sheridan, in that he won't overwhelm you with athleticism or scoring, but he works hard and does the little things - the prototypical "glue guy" that is great for team chemistry. And those guys are invaluable. Expect to see a lot of stat lines like 6pts, 4 rebs, 3 assts, 2 stls. That said, he's only a sophomore and if he keeps developing he could end up being a Mike Gansey (WVU) type player by the time he graduates. He will likely be the 6th man on this year's team, although he may start early in the season while the freshmen develop.

Malcolm Grant, Fr. 6'0"
Grant is the least heralded of the 3 freshman guards, but still a very good player (think Mike Nardi level talent). He's very quick and was the leading scorer in the NYC public league as a HS senior, which is no small feat - the guy knows how to score. After a post-grad year at prep school he's also developed a knack for running an offense and setting up teammates. He's a nice asset to have off the bench - and will be in the rotation as a freshman. He'll provide an offensive spark when he comes into the game and should push Fisher for point guard minutes.

FRONTCOURT
Dante Cunningham, Jr. 6'8"
With Curtis Sumpter gone, we will be relying on Cunningham to be our # 1 frontcourt threat. After averaging 8.7 pts and 5.4 rebounds a game last year, he will have every opportunity to emerge as a low-post scorer in Jay's "4-out, 1-in" offense. The guy's quickness and ability to jump out of the gym basically define the word "athleticism" - now he just needs to translate that into production on the court. With Scottie and Stokes' 3s stretching the defense, and the opportunities he will get from Fisher's drive and dish penetration, there is no reason he can't be a 12 pts, 8 rebs per game type player.

Shane Clark, Jr. 6'7"
Clark was highly touted coming out of HS, but hasn't had a breakout year yet. Last year he played through knee problems that got worse as the year went on. (If you didn't notice, his PPG slipped from around 11 in early January down to around 5 in March). I heard someone describe his play in March as "looking like he was playing on roller skates" in that he just never looked real comfortable moving around on the court and I tend to agree. But he had offseason knee surgery and is now healthy, so hopefully that will change. Reports are that he is much "bouncier" now and has been a beast on the boards in the early scrimmages. In a traditional lineup, he would probably be the small forward but given our lack of size in the frontcourt, Shane will likely be getting a lot of minutes at the "4" spot, where he will be expected to grab rebounds and defend bigger players. Offensively he will still primarly play on the perimeter and as a swing-man along the baseline, which should utilize his mid-range jumper and his ability to cut to the hoop and crash the boards. Hopefully he finally breaks out this year.

Antonio Pena, RFr. 6'8"
Pena is a 6'8" 230lb redshirt freshman, who sat out last year with a minor knee injury. The coaches are extremely high on his potential and given his developing 3-point shot, he has the chance to be a Sumpter-type inside-out player by the time he's done. This year, however, he will likely be playing a bit more inside given our lack of size and depth up front. Pena is built like a linebacker - and is a strong, tough banger who can use his superior athleticism to score and rebound in a variety of ways. He will get a lot of minutes off the bench this year and should be one of our top rebounders.

Cassiem Drummond, So. 6'10"
Cas has lost nearly 50 pounds since last season, which puts him in the 260 lb range this year and really says something about his hard work in the offseason. You might not recognize him. He's big, has great hands and some nice moves around the basket but he is still developing. He just needs to learn to play hard every possession and work on his defensive footwork (he picks up a lot of silly fouls b/c he is out of position or fatigued). Hopefully the better conditioning will help with some of that. In 2 years when he gets it all together, I think he will be a 15 pt, 9 rebound type of player for us. Until then, expect some great flashes off the bench combined with some turnovers and lots of fouls. He will be used a lot in games against big teams (Gtown, LVille, UConn, etc) but may not play at all in others against quicker teams. The sooner he gets it all together and earns himself a permanent spot in the rotation, the sooner this team takes the step to the next level. (Read: We will need his presence in the paint next year if we are gonna make a Final Four run).

Dwayne Anderson, Jr. 6'5"
It seems like we go through this every pre-season with Anderson. Just like last year, I'm hearing that he had a great summer, worked his butt off, Jay loves him and he's tearing it up in practice. But he never seems to show any consistency during the regular season. Last year he had 18 points against Iowa in the season opening tournament including four 3's and then proceeded to shoot about 22% over his next 10 games, which combined with his poor D to land him a permanent spot on the bench before January. The root of the problem is that, despite being a team captain (along with Scottie, Dante & Shane), a hard worker and a great athlete, he is a bit of a "tweener". At 6'5" he's too small and doesn't have the post moves to play the power forward slot, yet he also doesn't have the ball handling skills or lateral quickness to play in the backcourt - so he really has to play the small forward position if anything, which #1 Jay doesn't utilize as much cause he likes to go with 3 guards and # 2 it is a spot we just so happen to be loaded at (Stokes, Clark, Redding, Pena). A lot of people thought Dwayne was going to transfer this past offseason and I really think he could be a star for a mid-major team, but he decided that he loves going to school at Villanova so much that he's willing to stick it out whether he plays or not. Can't knock the kid for that. All of that said, Randy Foye, who was a pretty damn good athlete in his own right, was once asked by a reporter "Who is the best athlete on your team?" and he responded without hesitation, "Dwayne Anderson, easily". So who knows, maybe he puts it all together this year and finds a spot in the rotation, but I wouldn't bet on him beating out Stokes, Clark and Redding for minutes.

Andrew Ott, RFr. 6'10" and Frank Tchuisi, Jr. 6'10"
Ott and Tchuisi are 6'10" project type players that are still developing and will serve as depth guys this year. Ott is only a redshirt freshman and could be a nice contributor off the bench by the time he graduates. He is a poor man's Michael Bradley in the way he plays - not really a banger despite his size, but is a great passer for a big guy and can knock down the 15 footer - he just needs to develop his footwork and post moves. But I doubt he sees much time this season, barring injuries or Drummond taking a major step backwards.

And Tchuisi is basically here to provide size and depth in practice. It was a calculated strategy to give Tchuisi a scholarship 3 years ago - he was a good HS player though not great, but was a 4.0 student and had a Jay Wright type of "hustler/hard worker" attitude at St. Benedicts in NJ, which is a basketball powerhouse that Jay had been trying to crack in the recruiting game for a few years. We had an extra scholarship at the time and with the old "you can't teach size" thinking, some people thought he might be able to develop into a contributor off the bench (not likely at this point). It definitely paid off as Tchuisi is a great addition to the Villanova community (he's from Cameroon and speaks 6 languages), is a 4.0 student who will likely graduate in 3 years, and it gave us an "in" with St. Benedicts, which in turn helped land us Corey Stokes last fall and hopefully started a pipeline for future recruits.

3 major questions facing this team:
1. Will the frontcourt step up?
Despite being young, the backcourt is just about as talented as any team in the country, with a Big East Player of the year candidate and two HS All Americans leading the way. That leaves the lion's share of the question marks in the frontcourt, because for the 3rd year in a row, we have an undersized frontcourt. The good news is, we have more depth than in years' past. And despite losing Sumpter's 17 points and 7 rebounds per game, I think the froncourt will be improved over last year. There isn't one guy that will step up and replace all of Sumpter's numbers, but the production by committee approach should suffice as we have 4 quality big guys that will rotate up front. Our guys may struggle to score against bigger teams, but with our guards there to pick up the slack, the real concern becomes defending bigger teams. Sheridan did a great job over the last couple years, despite being undersized, but he had the luxury of being able to spend his fouls cause we didn't need him offensively. Cunningham could probably step into Sheridan's role and do a serviceable job, but do you really want your # 1 offensive post option guarding (and likely picking up fouls against) the likes of Hibbert, Padgett, Character, Thabeet, etc? It would be nice if Drummond's development accelerated a bit cause we could use his big body in there defensively, but I'm not counting on it. Interior defense will likely be Jay's biggest coaching challenge and unless he comes up with a successful solution (zone?) we will have a hard time competing with the top 3 or 4 teams in the Big East, cause they all out-size us up front.

2. How long will it take for the freshmen to develop?
This question mark is pretty obvious, given that this team will rely heavily on the young guys to contribute. If the freshmen live up to expectations, we have the chance to be a Top 15 team all season. On the other hand if they really struggle to adjust to the college game, we could be headed for the NIT. (See: Foye/Ray/Sumpter/Fraser freshman year who struggled with turnovers or UConn last year which started 4 freshman who couldn't find their shot). Expect somewhere in between. They will likely struggle a bit early while they adjust. Not everyone seems to remember that Scottie had some growing pains last year and that he was only averaging about 7 points a game before he exploded for 25 against DePaul in January and never looked back. Nobody is expecting these freshman to repeat Scottie's amazing performance from last year, but if they can play tough D, avoid turnovers and knock down enough shots to keep the pressure off Scottie, I think we will be very happy with them and the team overall.

3. Who else is going to score?
Luckily, this year we should have enough offensive weapons that we don't NEED Scottie to score 25 every night, unlike last year where he scored 40 out of necessity and we barely eeked out a win. This year, if he scores 40 in a game and everyone else is doing their job I expect us to win by 20. Other than Scottie, we probably won't have a guy averaging over 13-14 ppg, unlike last year when we had Sumpter and Reynolds both over 17 ppg in conference play. Instead, it will be much more balanced. I expect that any one of Cunningham, Clark, Fisher, Stokes, Redding, Pena and Grant could average between 8 and 12 points per game. I don't expect ALL of them to do it, but it won't surprise me if a few of them do. This is great, because opposing defenses can't shut down just one guy and stop us. At the same time, we need to develop another go-to scorer so that when we are in a must-score situation and everyone in the building knows our preference is Scottie taking the big shot, the defense can't just smother him. I'm hoping Cunningham steps up into that role, which would give us a nice inside-out game.

Obviously the rotation will depend on a lot of factors - injuries, chemistry, who's playing well, opponent, etc. But overall I see an 8.5 man rotation with Drummond being the 0.5, meaning that he will have a significant contribution against bigger teams, but then there will be games against smaller, quicker teams where Jay will want to press and Cas may not even play. Anyway, here is the way I see it shaping up by the end of the season:

STARTERS
PG Corey Fisher 9.3 ppg, 5.3 asts, 2.0 stls (28-32 mins per game)
SG Scottie Reynolds 16.2 ppg, 3.0 asts, 1.5 stls (30-34 mins per game)
G/F Corey Stokes 12.4 ppg, 5.0 rebs, 45% 3PT (25-30 mins per game)
F Shane Clark 9.7 ppg, 6.7 rebs, 1.5 asts (25-30 mins per game)
F Dante Cunningham 11.7 ppg, 7.9 rebs, 56% FG (25-30 mins per game)

BENCH (in order of minutes)
G/F Reggie Redding 6.4 ppg, 4.0 rebs, 2 asts (18-22 mins per game)
PF Antonio Pena 4.6 ppg, 4.8 rebs, 1.5 BLK (15-20 mins per game)
PG Malcolm Grant 4.8 ppg, 2.1 asts, 1.5 stls (15-18 mins per game)
F/C Cassiem Drummond 3.1 ppg, 3.4 rebs, 4 fouls (8-10 mins per game)