Now that the dust has settled on the Old Spice tourney and that heartbreaking loss on Sunday, I have had a few days to do some more objective analysis. There’s not a whole lot to say about the last second foul call – you usually don’t see a ref call a foul in that situation, but I’m not gonna pretend like its never happened before. In 2005 it happened to Nova twice, first against Georgetown and then in the Big East tournament against West Virginia. We lost both games on opponent’s free throws with under a second to play. (For an interesting objective look at it, check out Seth Davis’ article about the call and these types of situations in general). All of that said, bad call and all, the bottom line is that Nova lost that game due to horrid free throw shooting. Shooting 8-18 (44%) from the free throw line is not acceptable for the local 8th grade rec league team, much less a Top 25 ranked college team. If we had shot just 50% (still terrible), we win that game.
Anyway, despite the loss I think the Old Spice tourney was very good for this team. The young guys got lots of playing time given the 3 games in 4 days, a solid 9-man rotation started to take form and the team got a couple of solid wins against good competition. The George Mason win will look especially good in March, as they should be a solid NCAA tourney team and the NC St. loss is one of those character-building close games that hurts now, but could do wonders for this team’s poise in close games later in the season. Below is my team assessment after 5 games.
Positives
Cassiem Drummond has to be the biggest surprise so far in the young season. The big guy that lost over 50 pounds since last season is having a huge impact for this team on the boards, averaging nearly 10 rebounds per game. In my season preview I wrote “The sooner he gets it all together and earns himself a permanent spot in the rotation, the sooner this team takes the step to the next level.” I didn’t expect that to happen until late this season or next season, but consider it done. This development bodes very well for this team – both RIGHT NOW and in the future. Drummond is still somewhat of a defensive liability, but with his presence we have out-rebounded every team we’ve faced thus far.
Freshman guards Corey Fisher and Malcolm Grant have wasted no time in making their presence felt in the backcourt. They have shown no fear in taking big shots, haven’t turned the ball over and have been aggressive defensively. Jay Wright’s 3/4-quart press is an entirely different monster with these two quick guards in the game. Fisher has already shown that he is a Kyle Lowry-type star in the making and I expect him to earn the starting point guard role by mid-January (sliding Scottie over to the 2-guard spot and bumping Redding or Clark to the 6th man role). And Grant is instant offense off the bench, having already scored 13 points in 13 minutes against George Mason.
With the freshmen stepping up and guys like Clark, Redding and Cunningham contributing more offensively than in the past, I am no longer worried about who will step up and support Scottie in the scoring column. It may be a different guy every night, but we have about 6 or 7 guys on this team capable of going for 20 points on any given night. That is a very good thing to have.
Negatives
Much like early last season, we can’t seem to defend the 3-point line whatsoever as teams are shooting a scorching 44% against us. This is typical of both young teams and Jay Wright’s past teams early in the season, so I am not too worried about it. Jay’s man-to-man defense asks his guys to “switch” on nearly every screen, which prevents the initial shot but it leads to mis-matches which are easy for good teams to exploit with ball reversal and find open shots. In addition, when the young guys don’t know the proper defensive rotation and when to switch, it complicates the problem. But, they will learn both the defensive rotation and to fight through screens as the season progresses. Last year, we had the same problem early in the season with a much slower team. This year, we have a ton of perimeter quickness which should help remedy this problem.
Somehow we went from leading the nation in Free Throw shooting last year at 78%, to a team that is shooting an awful 63% so far this season. Overall I expect that to improve, but guys like Fisher (50%) and Drummond (33%) who should be key contributors at crunch time in a tight game, may be liabilities if that doesn’t improve.
Though the guards played relatively well in Orlando, they haven’t collectively shown that elite skill level that should make them one of the best backcourts in the country. There have been encouraging flashes of greatness from each of them individually, but when they put it all together and play well consistently, look out. Fisher is the only one that has consistently played extremely well so far. That said, I think Fisher’s presence is impacting Scottie’s play a little bit. Scottie has still been very good, don’t get me wrong, but I think he is struggling to adjust to playing off the ball and having other scorers in the backcourt. There were certain times during the tournament when he seemed to force some questionable shots early in the shot clock - which he had to do last year, and I know Jay would never tell him to stop shooting, but this year he can afford to be more patient given all the options we have. I have no problem with him taking the majority of the shots, provided they come within the structure and flow of the offense, as opposed to 25-footers with 25 seconds left on the shot clock. Just seems like he is forcing things a little bit. I am sure he will be fine – he is a stud offensively and its early in the season – there is time to adjust.
Corey Stokes, the McDonald’s All-American and the most highly-touted of our 3 freshmen, hasn’t really found his stroke or much of a rhythm offensively yet. He’s done some good things out there, but after scoring 18 points in the exhibition game against Bloomsburg, he seems hesitant to look for his shot. Hopefully it is just freshman jitters, because once he gets on track his spot-up shooting ability will add a whole ‘nother dimension to the offense.
Overall
I certainly didn’t expect that great play in the frontcourt would be our strength and free throw shooting and inconsistent play in the backcourt would be our weaknesses at this point in the season, but I think that actually bodes very well for this team. I have no doubt that the backcourt will get it together – they are so talented that it is only a matter of time. Combine that with the way the frontcourt is playing and this team will be very good THIS YEAR.
Shane Clark is out for a game or two with a strained/bruised quad muscle, which should give guys like Stokes and Pena more minutes to assert themselves and develop a better comfort level out there. Hopefully that will pay off later in the season. We are 4-1 (#21) and if we can get by some tough Big 5 games and the LSU game, in all of which we should be favored, we should enter Big East play in early January at 10-1 and ranked in the Top 15 in the country.
Plus/Minus
And finally, below are some “plus-minus” stats that I’ve calculated (yes, really…I’m that big of a dork). It is the hockey concept of "all stats aside, how does the team do when you are on the ice (floor)". I like it cause it accounts for things not always reflected in the box score (deflections, good D, hustle, good offensive flow, etc), as well as all the highly visible stats (points, rebounds, assists, etc). For example, Corey Fisher checked into the game against NC St. at the 14:13 mark of the 1st half with NC St. leading 9-7. When he checked back out of the game at the 8:07 mark, Nova was leading 20-16. Whether he had any points, assists, rebounds, steals, etc during that stretch doesn't matter - it is a 6 point swing in the positive direction (-2 to +4) when he was in the game. So that is a +6 for him for those 6 minutes. This is fairly easy to calculate using the "play by play" portion of the box score on villanova.com. Anyway, I know 5 games is a small sample size, but here's what I've got so far for the 9 rotation guys:
Avg +/- per game:
Clark, +10
Reynolds, +8.6
Cunningham, +7.6
Fisher, +6.25 (4 games)
Grant, +6.2
Redding, +6.2
Drummond, +4.0
Stokes, -0.20
Pena, -2.8
And perhaps more meaningful, +/- per minute:
Grant, +0.41
Clark, +0.37
Fisher, +0.28
Reynolds, +0.24
Cunningham, +0.24
Redding, +0.22
Drummond, +0.19
Stokes, -0.02
Pena, -0.34
I'm not saying this is an absolutely perfect evaluation formula, but it shows that so far our best lineup is the "3 point guard" lineup that they mentioned so much on TV last weekend, along with Clark and Cunningham. That also happens to be our quickest lineup and the one Jay likes to use his 3/4 court press with. Not to take anything away from the play of Drum so far, cause this smaller lineup would get killed on the boards if it was used predominantly throughout the game, but it seems like we have made the majority of our runs with those 5 on the floor. We'll see if this trend changes after another 5 games.
Friday, November 30, 2007
Monday, November 19, 2007
Old Spice Classic Preview
OVERVIEW
Villanova plays in the Old Spice Classic in Orlando, FL later this week. While the tournament takes a bit of a backseat to other Holiday tourneys like the NIT Tip-Off, Maui Invitational or Great Alaska Shootout, the 8-team field does feature three ranked teams and 2 more that are right on the cusp of the Top 25. Villanova enters the tourney ranked # 19 (#20 AP), followed by # 20 Kansas St. (#18 AP) and North Carolina St., which was ranked # 22 until an upset loss to New Orleans last night. And don't forget about George Mason and Central Florida (UCF), two mid-majors that bring senior-laden teams to the table that could cause trouble for the younger, higher-ranked teams in this field.
NOVA TV SCHEDULE
When the turkey and stuffing has been devoured and the football games are winding down on Thursday evening, flip over to ESPN2 to watch Nova take on UCF in a first round matchup. Assuming we win (which is not a sure thing), the schedule for the rest of the weekend is below.
Villanova plays in the Old Spice Classic in Orlando, FL later this week. While the tournament takes a bit of a backseat to other Holiday tourneys like the NIT Tip-Off, Maui Invitational or Great Alaska Shootout, the 8-team field does feature three ranked teams and 2 more that are right on the cusp of the Top 25. Villanova enters the tourney ranked # 19 (#20 AP), followed by # 20 Kansas St. (#18 AP) and North Carolina St., which was ranked # 22 until an upset loss to New Orleans last night. And don't forget about George Mason and Central Florida (UCF), two mid-majors that bring senior-laden teams to the table that could cause trouble for the younger, higher-ranked teams in this field.
NOVA TV SCHEDULE
When the turkey and stuffing has been devoured and the football games are winding down on Thursday evening, flip over to ESPN2 to watch Nova take on UCF in a first round matchup. Assuming we win (which is not a sure thing), the schedule for the rest of the weekend is below.
- First Round, Thursday, Nov. 22nd, 7:00pm ET, ESPN2 - Nova vs. Central Florida (UCF)
- Second Round, Friday, Nov. 23rd, 5:00pm ET, ESPN2 - Nova/UCF winner vs. Kansas St./G. Mason winner
- Championship, Sunday, November 25th, 6:30pm ET, ESPN2
Note: This TV schedule is the winner's bracket. The only thing that is set in stone is the First Round matchup. If we lose at any point along the way, that will change game times, matchups and TV coverage. You can find the full bracket HERE.
LIKELY NOVA OPPONENTS
Central Florida (UCF) - UCF is an experienced team that won 22 games last year and brings back 5 of their top 7 players. They are considered a bit of an up-and-comer in Conference USA where they face # 3 Memphis twice every season, so they won't be coming into this game wide-eyed and overwhelmed. Accordingly, this will not be a cakewalk for Nova. UCF has an experienced, poised backcourt that could cause us trouble if we shoot poorly or if our young backcourt struggles to defend the 3-point line as they have in the first two games this season. Nova has a considerable advantage in talent and athleticism but UCF has more experience if it comes down to a tight game.
Kansas St. - Kansas St. has Michael Beasley, who can best be described as this season's version of Kevin Durant. The 6' 9" freshman is averaging 30 points and 20 rebounds (that is not a typo!) through his first 3 collegiate games. Paired with super soph small forward Bill Walker, Beasley and K-St. have a considerable frontcourt advantage against most teams they face. Fortunately for the rest of the country, their backcourt leaves a little to be desired which has lead to a lot of turnovers and sloppy offensive organization. As a result, teams are able to let Beasley get his points and focus on stopping everybody else. But if their backcourt gets it together, look out.
George Mason - Last season started off as a bit of a rebuilding year for George Mason after the Final Four run in 2006, but a strong late-season surge had the Patriots just narrowly missing an NCAA tournament bid. This year Jim Larranaga's squad returns its top 6 scorers, including a trio of seniors that played key roles on the Final Four team two years ago. Senior Will Thomas leads the way, averaging 17.3 points per game and 14.0 rebounds per game. They are the definite sleeper of this tournament, with just enough talent and a boatload of experience to do some serious damage against the top teams or even win the whole tournament.
Note: The three teams above plus Villanova comprise the lower half of the bracket. The winner of this 4 team mini-tourney advances to the championship game. If Nova beats UCF in the first round, we will play the winner of Kansas St - George Mason in the 2nd round. If Nova loses to UCF in the first round, we will play the loser of Kansas St. - George Mason.
NC St. - Out of the 4 teams on the other side of the bracket (NC St., Rider, Penn St., South Carolina), NC. St. is by far the best and most talented team. I will be surprised if they don't end up in the championship game. They feature JJ Hickson, the other super frosh big-man in this tournament and the 6' 9" Power Forward is averaging 26.5 points and 10 rebounds through his first two collegiate games. Much like Kansas St, NC St's strength is all in its frontcourt, with 3 players taller than 6' 8" accounting for 75% of its offense and the backcourt not doing much of anything. If the backcourt doesn't turn the ball over, the frontcourt should be able to overpower most teams in this field.
NOVA OUTLOOK
Make no mistake, there will be no easy games in this tournament for Villanova, especially considering we are a young team that is still trying to define roles for everyone and gel as a unit. Expect to see a large rotation and lots of minutes for the young guys, as we play 3 games in 4 days. We certainly have enough talent offensively to win this tournament, but it will come down to how well Jay Wright gets the team to play defense against Top 25 competition.
In the first game, against UCF, the focus will be on defending the 3-point line, where we have been awful the first two games (opponents are shooting 46% from 3PT range against us thus far). That is to be expected from a young team early in the season, but it could become an achilles heel against teams like UCF and later against George Mason, which are two teams with experienced backcourts that know how to exploit sub-par perimeter defense.
Against Kansas St. or NC St., the focus shifts to interior defense and keeping our guys out of foul trouble. We won't be able to completely contain K-St's Beasley or NC St.'s Hickson, but if Cunningham, Clark and Drummond can make them work for shots and hold their own on the boards, we have a good shot to win, given our advantage in the backcourt. Should be fun to watch and a good early test for our young Wildcats.
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Villanova 2007-2008 Season Preview
Jay Wright and Villanova come into the season in somewhat of an unusual situation. Despite graduating 3 senior starters that lead the team to an average of 25 wins a year during their tenure, Jay Wright is not exactly "rebuilding". At the same time, while he's got some talented freshman, he hasn't exactly "re-loaded" with a major roster overhaul. As it stands, we are ranked # 25 in the Pre-Season Coaches Poll and are expected to compete with the upper tier teams of the Big East and earn a fourth consecutive NCAA tourney appearance. For that to happen, Jay will have to find a way to blend the solid core of returning players who know his system with young newcomers that are loaded with talent. Luckily for everyone involved, he's got some help to lead the way in reigning Big East rookie of the year Scottie Reynolds, who averaged over 18 points per game in Big East conference games last season. Reynolds will team up with a pair of talented freshman (the Coreys) and a couple capable depth guys (Redding, Grant) to form one of the best (albeit the youngest) backcourts in the Big East. Jay has indicated that he will utilize this backcourt depth to run his signature 3/4 court trap more often, as seen in certain situations last year. As the unit gels together over the course of this season and into next season, they should become one of the best backcourts in the country. By January 2009 (if not earlier) they should remind you of the days of the 4-guard offense (although Jay will likely only play 3 of them at once) and the teams with Foye, Ray, Lowry and Nardi. These young guys are that good.
The frontcourt will be lead by 6' 8" Dante Cunningham and 6' 7" Shane Clark, both of whom are athletic and physical, but a bit undersized. Along with some young guys off the bench, they should be able to out-quick and out-jump most of their opponents but will likely struggle against bigger teams (Gtown, Lville, UConn, etc). But with most opponents keying on the backcourt and our 3-point shooters stretching the defense, they will have every opportunity to establish themselves in the paint. The frontcourt development, along with how quickly the freshman develop will determine how far this team can go. The range is literally NIT on the low end, all the way up to Sweet 16 and beyond on the high end. I expect somewhere in the middle - with the young guys struggling a bit early, but for Jay to have everyone firing on all cylinders by February, ending up with this team being a very dangerous 6 or 7 seed in the NCAA tournament. Either way, note that because this team has 0 seniors, from a fan's perspective this is somewhat of a dry run for Jay Wright to get any rotation and chemistry kinks worked out for next season, when this team will likely be a Top 10 team and competing for a Final Four (Similar to the elite eight team of 2006).
BACKCOURT
Scottie Reynolds, So. 6'2"
As a result of a humbling performance in the Pan American games this summer against quicker international guards, Scottie has slimmed down a bit, and as a result he is now even quicker going to the hoop. Expect him to pick up right where he left off last year - he will be this team's leader and go-to scorer but will also attract the opponent's top defender and plenty of help defense. However, if other guys can step up offensively as expected, it will be difficult for teams to focus solely on Reynolds. He will likely start the season as the primary point guard, but when Jay gets more comfortable with the freshmen running the show I expect that Scottie will play off the ball allowing Jay to set more plays and screens for him, all of which will make him more dangerous.
Corey Fisher, Fr. 6'1"
Meet your new favorite player. This kid is a Kyle Lowry clone. He's super quick and has that Lowry signature "you can't stop me" attitude, strength and toughness in taking the ball to the hoop over guys a foot taller than he is. He's also a premier defender like Lowry was, and you will love his hustle - he'll be diving all over the place out there. He's not as good as Lowry yet, but is already a better passer and has a much better outside shot than Kyle, so he has the potential to be better by the time he's done. He's been battling some minor tendinitis in his left knee and has missed some practice time so he will likely come off the bench early in the season, but I will be shocked if he's not this team's starting point guard by January.
Corey Stokes, Fr. 6'6"
This is the "other" Corey, who despite being a McDonald's All American, somehow didn't get as much hype as Fisher. But this kid could be a Villanova all-time great and the career 3-point shooting leader by the time he's done. That's IF he stays 4 years. And thats a big IF - he's a strong, athletic 6'6" kid with a great stroke and what they call an "NBA body" meaning he's got some bulk - if he develops a "drive to the basket" game, NBA scouts will have trouble keeping their hands off of him. Think of him as Allan Ray, but 4 inches taller. He's got incredible range and is also a great rebounder from the small forward position. He had 18 points and 10 rebounds in the exhibition game the other night, including four 3's. The only knocks on him have been that he doesn't always play hard every possession and that he kinda passively lets the game come to him instead of actively looking for his shot, but I'm sure Jay will set him straight. If he develops a Fisher/Reynolds type of intensity out there and learns to take over games, look out. He certainly has the talent to be a starter from day one but I can see Jay bringing him off the bench for a while until he improves his defensive intensity. Whether he starts or comes off the bench, he should be getting tons of minutes by the time the conference season starts.
Reggie Redding, So. 6'4"
Redding isn't supremely talented in any one area like some guys on this team but he does everything pretty well and Jay raves about his basketball IQ, his defense, and his poise on the court, so he figures to get a lot of minutes. He appears to be the new Will Sheridan, in that he won't overwhelm you with athleticism or scoring, but he works hard and does the little things - the prototypical "glue guy" that is great for team chemistry. And those guys are invaluable. Expect to see a lot of stat lines like 6pts, 4 rebs, 3 assts, 2 stls. That said, he's only a sophomore and if he keeps developing he could end up being a Mike Gansey (WVU) type player by the time he graduates. He will likely be the 6th man on this year's team, although he may start early in the season while the freshmen develop.
Malcolm Grant, Fr. 6'0"
Grant is the least heralded of the 3 freshman guards, but still a very good player (think Mike Nardi level talent). He's very quick and was the leading scorer in the NYC public league as a HS senior, which is no small feat - the guy knows how to score. After a post-grad year at prep school he's also developed a knack for running an offense and setting up teammates. He's a nice asset to have off the bench - and will be in the rotation as a freshman. He'll provide an offensive spark when he comes into the game and should push Fisher for point guard minutes.
FRONTCOURT
Dante Cunningham, Jr. 6'8"
With Curtis Sumpter gone, we will be relying on Cunningham to be our # 1 frontcourt threat. After averaging 8.7 pts and 5.4 rebounds a game last year, he will have every opportunity to emerge as a low-post scorer in Jay's "4-out, 1-in" offense. The guy's quickness and ability to jump out of the gym basically define the word "athleticism" - now he just needs to translate that into production on the court. With Scottie and Stokes' 3s stretching the defense, and the opportunities he will get from Fisher's drive and dish penetration, there is no reason he can't be a 12 pts, 8 rebs per game type player.
Shane Clark, Jr. 6'7"
Clark was highly touted coming out of HS, but hasn't had a breakout year yet. Last year he played through knee problems that got worse as the year went on. (If you didn't notice, his PPG slipped from around 11 in early January down to around 5 in March). I heard someone describe his play in March as "looking like he was playing on roller skates" in that he just never looked real comfortable moving around on the court and I tend to agree. But he had offseason knee surgery and is now healthy, so hopefully that will change. Reports are that he is much "bouncier" now and has been a beast on the boards in the early scrimmages. In a traditional lineup, he would probably be the small forward but given our lack of size in the frontcourt, Shane will likely be getting a lot of minutes at the "4" spot, where he will be expected to grab rebounds and defend bigger players. Offensively he will still primarly play on the perimeter and as a swing-man along the baseline, which should utilize his mid-range jumper and his ability to cut to the hoop and crash the boards. Hopefully he finally breaks out this year.
Antonio Pena, RFr. 6'8"
Pena is a 6'8" 230lb redshirt freshman, who sat out last year with a minor knee injury. The coaches are extremely high on his potential and given his developing 3-point shot, he has the chance to be a Sumpter-type inside-out player by the time he's done. This year, however, he will likely be playing a bit more inside given our lack of size and depth up front. Pena is built like a linebacker - and is a strong, tough banger who can use his superior athleticism to score and rebound in a variety of ways. He will get a lot of minutes off the bench this year and should be one of our top rebounders.
Cassiem Drummond, So. 6'10"
Cas has lost nearly 50 pounds since last season, which puts him in the 260 lb range this year and really says something about his hard work in the offseason. You might not recognize him. He's big, has great hands and some nice moves around the basket but he is still developing. He just needs to learn to play hard every possession and work on his defensive footwork (he picks up a lot of silly fouls b/c he is out of position or fatigued). Hopefully the better conditioning will help with some of that. In 2 years when he gets it all together, I think he will be a 15 pt, 9 rebound type of player for us. Until then, expect some great flashes off the bench combined with some turnovers and lots of fouls. He will be used a lot in games against big teams (Gtown, LVille, UConn, etc) but may not play at all in others against quicker teams. The sooner he gets it all together and earns himself a permanent spot in the rotation, the sooner this team takes the step to the next level. (Read: We will need his presence in the paint next year if we are gonna make a Final Four run).
Dwayne Anderson, Jr. 6'5"
It seems like we go through this every pre-season with Anderson. Just like last year, I'm hearing that he had a great summer, worked his butt off, Jay loves him and he's tearing it up in practice. But he never seems to show any consistency during the regular season. Last year he had 18 points against Iowa in the season opening tournament including four 3's and then proceeded to shoot about 22% over his next 10 games, which combined with his poor D to land him a permanent spot on the bench before January. The root of the problem is that, despite being a team captain (along with Scottie, Dante & Shane), a hard worker and a great athlete, he is a bit of a "tweener". At 6'5" he's too small and doesn't have the post moves to play the power forward slot, yet he also doesn't have the ball handling skills or lateral quickness to play in the backcourt - so he really has to play the small forward position if anything, which #1 Jay doesn't utilize as much cause he likes to go with 3 guards and # 2 it is a spot we just so happen to be loaded at (Stokes, Clark, Redding, Pena). A lot of people thought Dwayne was going to transfer this past offseason and I really think he could be a star for a mid-major team, but he decided that he loves going to school at Villanova so much that he's willing to stick it out whether he plays or not. Can't knock the kid for that. All of that said, Randy Foye, who was a pretty damn good athlete in his own right, was once asked by a reporter "Who is the best athlete on your team?" and he responded without hesitation, "Dwayne Anderson, easily". So who knows, maybe he puts it all together this year and finds a spot in the rotation, but I wouldn't bet on him beating out Stokes, Clark and Redding for minutes.
Andrew Ott, RFr. 6'10" and Frank Tchuisi, Jr. 6'10"
Ott and Tchuisi are 6'10" project type players that are still developing and will serve as depth guys this year. Ott is only a redshirt freshman and could be a nice contributor off the bench by the time he graduates. He is a poor man's Michael Bradley in the way he plays - not really a banger despite his size, but is a great passer for a big guy and can knock down the 15 footer - he just needs to develop his footwork and post moves. But I doubt he sees much time this season, barring injuries or Drummond taking a major step backwards.
And Tchuisi is basically here to provide size and depth in practice. It was a calculated strategy to give Tchuisi a scholarship 3 years ago - he was a good HS player though not great, but was a 4.0 student and had a Jay Wright type of "hustler/hard worker" attitude at St. Benedicts in NJ, which is a basketball powerhouse that Jay had been trying to crack in the recruiting game for a few years. We had an extra scholarship at the time and with the old "you can't teach size" thinking, some people thought he might be able to develop into a contributor off the bench (not likely at this point). It definitely paid off as Tchuisi is a great addition to the Villanova community (he's from Cameroon and speaks 6 languages), is a 4.0 student who will likely graduate in 3 years, and it gave us an "in" with St. Benedicts, which in turn helped land us Corey Stokes last fall and hopefully started a pipeline for future recruits.
3 major questions facing this team:
1. Will the frontcourt step up?
Despite being young, the backcourt is just about as talented as any team in the country, with a Big East Player of the year candidate and two HS All Americans leading the way. That leaves the lion's share of the question marks in the frontcourt, because for the 3rd year in a row, we have an undersized frontcourt. The good news is, we have more depth than in years' past. And despite losing Sumpter's 17 points and 7 rebounds per game, I think the froncourt will be improved over last year. There isn't one guy that will step up and replace all of Sumpter's numbers, but the production by committee approach should suffice as we have 4 quality big guys that will rotate up front. Our guys may struggle to score against bigger teams, but with our guards there to pick up the slack, the real concern becomes defending bigger teams. Sheridan did a great job over the last couple years, despite being undersized, but he had the luxury of being able to spend his fouls cause we didn't need him offensively. Cunningham could probably step into Sheridan's role and do a serviceable job, but do you really want your # 1 offensive post option guarding (and likely picking up fouls against) the likes of Hibbert, Padgett, Character, Thabeet, etc? It would be nice if Drummond's development accelerated a bit cause we could use his big body in there defensively, but I'm not counting on it. Interior defense will likely be Jay's biggest coaching challenge and unless he comes up with a successful solution (zone?) we will have a hard time competing with the top 3 or 4 teams in the Big East, cause they all out-size us up front.
2. How long will it take for the freshmen to develop?
This question mark is pretty obvious, given that this team will rely heavily on the young guys to contribute. If the freshmen live up to expectations, we have the chance to be a Top 15 team all season. On the other hand if they really struggle to adjust to the college game, we could be headed for the NIT. (See: Foye/Ray/Sumpter/Fraser freshman year who struggled with turnovers or UConn last year which started 4 freshman who couldn't find their shot). Expect somewhere in between. They will likely struggle a bit early while they adjust. Not everyone seems to remember that Scottie had some growing pains last year and that he was only averaging about 7 points a game before he exploded for 25 against DePaul in January and never looked back. Nobody is expecting these freshman to repeat Scottie's amazing performance from last year, but if they can play tough D, avoid turnovers and knock down enough shots to keep the pressure off Scottie, I think we will be very happy with them and the team overall.
3. Who else is going to score?
Luckily, this year we should have enough offensive weapons that we don't NEED Scottie to score 25 every night, unlike last year where he scored 40 out of necessity and we barely eeked out a win. This year, if he scores 40 in a game and everyone else is doing their job I expect us to win by 20. Other than Scottie, we probably won't have a guy averaging over 13-14 ppg, unlike last year when we had Sumpter and Reynolds both over 17 ppg in conference play. Instead, it will be much more balanced. I expect that any one of Cunningham, Clark, Fisher, Stokes, Redding, Pena and Grant could average between 8 and 12 points per game. I don't expect ALL of them to do it, but it won't surprise me if a few of them do. This is great, because opposing defenses can't shut down just one guy and stop us. At the same time, we need to develop another go-to scorer so that when we are in a must-score situation and everyone in the building knows our preference is Scottie taking the big shot, the defense can't just smother him. I'm hoping Cunningham steps up into that role, which would give us a nice inside-out game.
Obviously the rotation will depend on a lot of factors - injuries, chemistry, who's playing well, opponent, etc. But overall I see an 8.5 man rotation with Drummond being the 0.5, meaning that he will have a significant contribution against bigger teams, but then there will be games against smaller, quicker teams where Jay will want to press and Cas may not even play. Anyway, here is the way I see it shaping up by the end of the season:
STARTERS
PG Corey Fisher 9.3 ppg, 5.3 asts, 2.0 stls (28-32 mins per game)
SG Scottie Reynolds 16.2 ppg, 3.0 asts, 1.5 stls (30-34 mins per game)
G/F Corey Stokes 12.4 ppg, 5.0 rebs, 45% 3PT (25-30 mins per game)
F Shane Clark 9.7 ppg, 6.7 rebs, 1.5 asts (25-30 mins per game)
F Dante Cunningham 11.7 ppg, 7.9 rebs, 56% FG (25-30 mins per game)
BENCH (in order of minutes)
G/F Reggie Redding 6.4 ppg, 4.0 rebs, 2 asts (18-22 mins per game)
PF Antonio Pena 4.6 ppg, 4.8 rebs, 1.5 BLK (15-20 mins per game)
PG Malcolm Grant 4.8 ppg, 2.1 asts, 1.5 stls (15-18 mins per game)
F/C Cassiem Drummond 3.1 ppg, 3.4 rebs, 4 fouls (8-10 mins per game)
The frontcourt will be lead by 6' 8" Dante Cunningham and 6' 7" Shane Clark, both of whom are athletic and physical, but a bit undersized. Along with some young guys off the bench, they should be able to out-quick and out-jump most of their opponents but will likely struggle against bigger teams (Gtown, Lville, UConn, etc). But with most opponents keying on the backcourt and our 3-point shooters stretching the defense, they will have every opportunity to establish themselves in the paint. The frontcourt development, along with how quickly the freshman develop will determine how far this team can go. The range is literally NIT on the low end, all the way up to Sweet 16 and beyond on the high end. I expect somewhere in the middle - with the young guys struggling a bit early, but for Jay to have everyone firing on all cylinders by February, ending up with this team being a very dangerous 6 or 7 seed in the NCAA tournament. Either way, note that because this team has 0 seniors, from a fan's perspective this is somewhat of a dry run for Jay Wright to get any rotation and chemistry kinks worked out for next season, when this team will likely be a Top 10 team and competing for a Final Four (Similar to the elite eight team of 2006).
BACKCOURT
Scottie Reynolds, So. 6'2"
As a result of a humbling performance in the Pan American games this summer against quicker international guards, Scottie has slimmed down a bit, and as a result he is now even quicker going to the hoop. Expect him to pick up right where he left off last year - he will be this team's leader and go-to scorer but will also attract the opponent's top defender and plenty of help defense. However, if other guys can step up offensively as expected, it will be difficult for teams to focus solely on Reynolds. He will likely start the season as the primary point guard, but when Jay gets more comfortable with the freshmen running the show I expect that Scottie will play off the ball allowing Jay to set more plays and screens for him, all of which will make him more dangerous.
Corey Fisher, Fr. 6'1"
Meet your new favorite player. This kid is a Kyle Lowry clone. He's super quick and has that Lowry signature "you can't stop me" attitude, strength and toughness in taking the ball to the hoop over guys a foot taller than he is. He's also a premier defender like Lowry was, and you will love his hustle - he'll be diving all over the place out there. He's not as good as Lowry yet, but is already a better passer and has a much better outside shot than Kyle, so he has the potential to be better by the time he's done. He's been battling some minor tendinitis in his left knee and has missed some practice time so he will likely come off the bench early in the season, but I will be shocked if he's not this team's starting point guard by January.
Corey Stokes, Fr. 6'6"
This is the "other" Corey, who despite being a McDonald's All American, somehow didn't get as much hype as Fisher. But this kid could be a Villanova all-time great and the career 3-point shooting leader by the time he's done. That's IF he stays 4 years. And thats a big IF - he's a strong, athletic 6'6" kid with a great stroke and what they call an "NBA body" meaning he's got some bulk - if he develops a "drive to the basket" game, NBA scouts will have trouble keeping their hands off of him. Think of him as Allan Ray, but 4 inches taller. He's got incredible range and is also a great rebounder from the small forward position. He had 18 points and 10 rebounds in the exhibition game the other night, including four 3's. The only knocks on him have been that he doesn't always play hard every possession and that he kinda passively lets the game come to him instead of actively looking for his shot, but I'm sure Jay will set him straight. If he develops a Fisher/Reynolds type of intensity out there and learns to take over games, look out. He certainly has the talent to be a starter from day one but I can see Jay bringing him off the bench for a while until he improves his defensive intensity. Whether he starts or comes off the bench, he should be getting tons of minutes by the time the conference season starts.
Reggie Redding, So. 6'4"
Redding isn't supremely talented in any one area like some guys on this team but he does everything pretty well and Jay raves about his basketball IQ, his defense, and his poise on the court, so he figures to get a lot of minutes. He appears to be the new Will Sheridan, in that he won't overwhelm you with athleticism or scoring, but he works hard and does the little things - the prototypical "glue guy" that is great for team chemistry. And those guys are invaluable. Expect to see a lot of stat lines like 6pts, 4 rebs, 3 assts, 2 stls. That said, he's only a sophomore and if he keeps developing he could end up being a Mike Gansey (WVU) type player by the time he graduates. He will likely be the 6th man on this year's team, although he may start early in the season while the freshmen develop.
Malcolm Grant, Fr. 6'0"
Grant is the least heralded of the 3 freshman guards, but still a very good player (think Mike Nardi level talent). He's very quick and was the leading scorer in the NYC public league as a HS senior, which is no small feat - the guy knows how to score. After a post-grad year at prep school he's also developed a knack for running an offense and setting up teammates. He's a nice asset to have off the bench - and will be in the rotation as a freshman. He'll provide an offensive spark when he comes into the game and should push Fisher for point guard minutes.
FRONTCOURT
Dante Cunningham, Jr. 6'8"
With Curtis Sumpter gone, we will be relying on Cunningham to be our # 1 frontcourt threat. After averaging 8.7 pts and 5.4 rebounds a game last year, he will have every opportunity to emerge as a low-post scorer in Jay's "4-out, 1-in" offense. The guy's quickness and ability to jump out of the gym basically define the word "athleticism" - now he just needs to translate that into production on the court. With Scottie and Stokes' 3s stretching the defense, and the opportunities he will get from Fisher's drive and dish penetration, there is no reason he can't be a 12 pts, 8 rebs per game type player.
Shane Clark, Jr. 6'7"
Clark was highly touted coming out of HS, but hasn't had a breakout year yet. Last year he played through knee problems that got worse as the year went on. (If you didn't notice, his PPG slipped from around 11 in early January down to around 5 in March). I heard someone describe his play in March as "looking like he was playing on roller skates" in that he just never looked real comfortable moving around on the court and I tend to agree. But he had offseason knee surgery and is now healthy, so hopefully that will change. Reports are that he is much "bouncier" now and has been a beast on the boards in the early scrimmages. In a traditional lineup, he would probably be the small forward but given our lack of size in the frontcourt, Shane will likely be getting a lot of minutes at the "4" spot, where he will be expected to grab rebounds and defend bigger players. Offensively he will still primarly play on the perimeter and as a swing-man along the baseline, which should utilize his mid-range jumper and his ability to cut to the hoop and crash the boards. Hopefully he finally breaks out this year.
Antonio Pena, RFr. 6'8"
Pena is a 6'8" 230lb redshirt freshman, who sat out last year with a minor knee injury. The coaches are extremely high on his potential and given his developing 3-point shot, he has the chance to be a Sumpter-type inside-out player by the time he's done. This year, however, he will likely be playing a bit more inside given our lack of size and depth up front. Pena is built like a linebacker - and is a strong, tough banger who can use his superior athleticism to score and rebound in a variety of ways. He will get a lot of minutes off the bench this year and should be one of our top rebounders.
Cassiem Drummond, So. 6'10"
Cas has lost nearly 50 pounds since last season, which puts him in the 260 lb range this year and really says something about his hard work in the offseason. You might not recognize him. He's big, has great hands and some nice moves around the basket but he is still developing. He just needs to learn to play hard every possession and work on his defensive footwork (he picks up a lot of silly fouls b/c he is out of position or fatigued). Hopefully the better conditioning will help with some of that. In 2 years when he gets it all together, I think he will be a 15 pt, 9 rebound type of player for us. Until then, expect some great flashes off the bench combined with some turnovers and lots of fouls. He will be used a lot in games against big teams (Gtown, LVille, UConn, etc) but may not play at all in others against quicker teams. The sooner he gets it all together and earns himself a permanent spot in the rotation, the sooner this team takes the step to the next level. (Read: We will need his presence in the paint next year if we are gonna make a Final Four run).
Dwayne Anderson, Jr. 6'5"
It seems like we go through this every pre-season with Anderson. Just like last year, I'm hearing that he had a great summer, worked his butt off, Jay loves him and he's tearing it up in practice. But he never seems to show any consistency during the regular season. Last year he had 18 points against Iowa in the season opening tournament including four 3's and then proceeded to shoot about 22% over his next 10 games, which combined with his poor D to land him a permanent spot on the bench before January. The root of the problem is that, despite being a team captain (along with Scottie, Dante & Shane), a hard worker and a great athlete, he is a bit of a "tweener". At 6'5" he's too small and doesn't have the post moves to play the power forward slot, yet he also doesn't have the ball handling skills or lateral quickness to play in the backcourt - so he really has to play the small forward position if anything, which #1 Jay doesn't utilize as much cause he likes to go with 3 guards and # 2 it is a spot we just so happen to be loaded at (Stokes, Clark, Redding, Pena). A lot of people thought Dwayne was going to transfer this past offseason and I really think he could be a star for a mid-major team, but he decided that he loves going to school at Villanova so much that he's willing to stick it out whether he plays or not. Can't knock the kid for that. All of that said, Randy Foye, who was a pretty damn good athlete in his own right, was once asked by a reporter "Who is the best athlete on your team?" and he responded without hesitation, "Dwayne Anderson, easily". So who knows, maybe he puts it all together this year and finds a spot in the rotation, but I wouldn't bet on him beating out Stokes, Clark and Redding for minutes.
Andrew Ott, RFr. 6'10" and Frank Tchuisi, Jr. 6'10"
Ott and Tchuisi are 6'10" project type players that are still developing and will serve as depth guys this year. Ott is only a redshirt freshman and could be a nice contributor off the bench by the time he graduates. He is a poor man's Michael Bradley in the way he plays - not really a banger despite his size, but is a great passer for a big guy and can knock down the 15 footer - he just needs to develop his footwork and post moves. But I doubt he sees much time this season, barring injuries or Drummond taking a major step backwards.
And Tchuisi is basically here to provide size and depth in practice. It was a calculated strategy to give Tchuisi a scholarship 3 years ago - he was a good HS player though not great, but was a 4.0 student and had a Jay Wright type of "hustler/hard worker" attitude at St. Benedicts in NJ, which is a basketball powerhouse that Jay had been trying to crack in the recruiting game for a few years. We had an extra scholarship at the time and with the old "you can't teach size" thinking, some people thought he might be able to develop into a contributor off the bench (not likely at this point). It definitely paid off as Tchuisi is a great addition to the Villanova community (he's from Cameroon and speaks 6 languages), is a 4.0 student who will likely graduate in 3 years, and it gave us an "in" with St. Benedicts, which in turn helped land us Corey Stokes last fall and hopefully started a pipeline for future recruits.
3 major questions facing this team:
1. Will the frontcourt step up?
Despite being young, the backcourt is just about as talented as any team in the country, with a Big East Player of the year candidate and two HS All Americans leading the way. That leaves the lion's share of the question marks in the frontcourt, because for the 3rd year in a row, we have an undersized frontcourt. The good news is, we have more depth than in years' past. And despite losing Sumpter's 17 points and 7 rebounds per game, I think the froncourt will be improved over last year. There isn't one guy that will step up and replace all of Sumpter's numbers, but the production by committee approach should suffice as we have 4 quality big guys that will rotate up front. Our guys may struggle to score against bigger teams, but with our guards there to pick up the slack, the real concern becomes defending bigger teams. Sheridan did a great job over the last couple years, despite being undersized, but he had the luxury of being able to spend his fouls cause we didn't need him offensively. Cunningham could probably step into Sheridan's role and do a serviceable job, but do you really want your # 1 offensive post option guarding (and likely picking up fouls against) the likes of Hibbert, Padgett, Character, Thabeet, etc? It would be nice if Drummond's development accelerated a bit cause we could use his big body in there defensively, but I'm not counting on it. Interior defense will likely be Jay's biggest coaching challenge and unless he comes up with a successful solution (zone?) we will have a hard time competing with the top 3 or 4 teams in the Big East, cause they all out-size us up front.
2. How long will it take for the freshmen to develop?
This question mark is pretty obvious, given that this team will rely heavily on the young guys to contribute. If the freshmen live up to expectations, we have the chance to be a Top 15 team all season. On the other hand if they really struggle to adjust to the college game, we could be headed for the NIT. (See: Foye/Ray/Sumpter/Fraser freshman year who struggled with turnovers or UConn last year which started 4 freshman who couldn't find their shot). Expect somewhere in between. They will likely struggle a bit early while they adjust. Not everyone seems to remember that Scottie had some growing pains last year and that he was only averaging about 7 points a game before he exploded for 25 against DePaul in January and never looked back. Nobody is expecting these freshman to repeat Scottie's amazing performance from last year, but if they can play tough D, avoid turnovers and knock down enough shots to keep the pressure off Scottie, I think we will be very happy with them and the team overall.
3. Who else is going to score?
Luckily, this year we should have enough offensive weapons that we don't NEED Scottie to score 25 every night, unlike last year where he scored 40 out of necessity and we barely eeked out a win. This year, if he scores 40 in a game and everyone else is doing their job I expect us to win by 20. Other than Scottie, we probably won't have a guy averaging over 13-14 ppg, unlike last year when we had Sumpter and Reynolds both over 17 ppg in conference play. Instead, it will be much more balanced. I expect that any one of Cunningham, Clark, Fisher, Stokes, Redding, Pena and Grant could average between 8 and 12 points per game. I don't expect ALL of them to do it, but it won't surprise me if a few of them do. This is great, because opposing defenses can't shut down just one guy and stop us. At the same time, we need to develop another go-to scorer so that when we are in a must-score situation and everyone in the building knows our preference is Scottie taking the big shot, the defense can't just smother him. I'm hoping Cunningham steps up into that role, which would give us a nice inside-out game.
Obviously the rotation will depend on a lot of factors - injuries, chemistry, who's playing well, opponent, etc. But overall I see an 8.5 man rotation with Drummond being the 0.5, meaning that he will have a significant contribution against bigger teams, but then there will be games against smaller, quicker teams where Jay will want to press and Cas may not even play. Anyway, here is the way I see it shaping up by the end of the season:
STARTERS
PG Corey Fisher 9.3 ppg, 5.3 asts, 2.0 stls (28-32 mins per game)
SG Scottie Reynolds 16.2 ppg, 3.0 asts, 1.5 stls (30-34 mins per game)
G/F Corey Stokes 12.4 ppg, 5.0 rebs, 45% 3PT (25-30 mins per game)
F Shane Clark 9.7 ppg, 6.7 rebs, 1.5 asts (25-30 mins per game)
F Dante Cunningham 11.7 ppg, 7.9 rebs, 56% FG (25-30 mins per game)
BENCH (in order of minutes)
G/F Reggie Redding 6.4 ppg, 4.0 rebs, 2 asts (18-22 mins per game)
PF Antonio Pena 4.6 ppg, 4.8 rebs, 1.5 BLK (15-20 mins per game)
PG Malcolm Grant 4.8 ppg, 2.1 asts, 1.5 stls (15-18 mins per game)
F/C Cassiem Drummond 3.1 ppg, 3.4 rebs, 4 fouls (8-10 mins per game)
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