Villanova - Clemson preview

Admittedly, I have not seen many Clemson games this year but my initial reaction to the matchup was positive:
1. ACC = up-tempo but limited defense and a bit soft (compared to the Big East)
2. Clemson may be overseeded due to their ACC tournament run
3. We have just as much talent (if not more) on our roster.
4. They press - but it is very beatable.

I still believe those things, but after doing a little more research I have to give them more credit than I initially thought. They are very good and if we don't come out with our A game, they may very well run us out of the gym. In many ways, they are a slightly lesser version of what I hope our team becomes next year (I think we can do better than a 5 seed). That said, they do have a lot of flaws and the way Nova has been playing the last month or so, I think we will be right in this thing. Essentially they are pretty evenly matched teams - it just comes down to consistency - Clemson plays well almost every night while Nova is still learning how to do that (and sometimes plays flat out terribly) - and that is the difference in the seeding. If both teams play well, we are in for a classic 5-12 barn burner.

Here are my keys to the game:

Handle the pressure
Clemson runs 10 deep, they are very athletic and they have 4 quality guards they can run at you so they tend to press all game long and they create a lot of turnovers. That said, this can also be a weakness if the opposing guards know how to exploit it. North Carolina ran thru and around the press on the way to a win in the ACC tourney final. Our guards are good enough to be able to do this but they will have to be smart and patient. Corey Fisher will be a huge factor giving Scottie some help in the backcourt. Corey appears to have lost some confidence in his shot lately and his minutes have been dwindling, but he is perhaps our best ballhandler. We need him to contribute some quality minutes to take some pressure off of Scottie. If not, Scottie will be doing all the work to bring the ball up against the press, AND will be expected to do the bulk of the scoring - not a good combo. In addition to Fisher, I expect Jay to come up with a gameplan that employs a lot of Stokes, Anderson, Pena, Cunningham & Clark in the backcourt helping to break the press with effective cutting and passing.

Control Tempo
Clemson would love to play this game in the 80's while I'm sure Jay would prefer to keep it in the 60's. ACC teams in general like to run and play up-tempo and Clemson's press helps facilitate that kind of game. They create turnovers and try to fast break and when it doesn't work the opponent breaks the press and goes right to the basket - either way it leads to an up-tempo style of play which suits Clemson well. This is my biggest concern tomorrow, cause we all know how Scottie likes to go hard to the basket whenever he can. In my opinion, doing this immediately after breaking the press is a mistake against this team cause you are essentially trying to beat them at their own game. I'd prefer we break the press and then slow it down into a half-court offensive set and attack the D with our ball-screens and dribble penetration. Half-court Defense is one of Clemson's weaker points and having played against plenty of tough Big East defenses, I think the Cats can exploit this for open looks. Hopefully Stokes, Scottie, Fisher & Anderson are knocking them down tomorrow night so we can avoid the scoring droughts we sometimes encounter.


Foul Trouble
Obviously both teams want to stay out of foul trouble, but I think it is most critical for Reynolds, Cunningham & Anderson. Reynolds mainly because we lack a scoring punch when he's not out there. But I've also noticed that we play a lot better when Cunningham and Anderson are on the floor and that when we get into those early holes down 11 or 12 in the first half it is usually because either Dante or Dwayne is sitting on the bench with 2 first half fouls. And obviously if we can get the Clemson big guys in foul trouble that is always helpful.

Defense
Clemson has 5 guys averaging in double figures and a 6th at 8.6 points per game. 4 of those 6 guys are guards, 3 of which can really shoot it from beyond the 3-point arc (especially Oglesby). Perimeter defense will be critical. Does the Nova team that gave up 17 3's to Georgetown last week show up or the one that held Georgetown (the first time), UConn and West Virginia to a combined 25% from beyond the arc? The next key is stopping the penetration of KC Rivers and Cliff Hammonds - those are the guys that make the Clemson offense go. The Nova backcourt will expend a lot of energy breaking the Clemson press - will they have enough energy to defend effectively on the other end? Jay will have to utilize smart substitution patterns to get the most out of his guys.

Rebounding
Clemson doesnt have anyone that will tower over our guys (like Hibbert or Randolph Morris at Kentucky last year), but they are a good rebounding team because they have some bangers underneath and they get some help from their guards. Trevor Booker is a 6'7" 240lb linebacker-type power forward who is capable of being very effective. He had 6 blocks last week against national player of the year Tyler Hansbrough and UNC. 6'9" James Mays is another guy who does the dirty work down low. Cunningham, Pena and hopefully Drummond will have their hands full and they need to really focus on defensive rebounds - we can't afford to give Clemson 2nd chance opportunities.

Advantages:
Backcourt: Slight edge Nova
Frontcourt: Slight edge Clemson
Bench: Nova
Rebounding: Clemson
Free-throw shooting: Huge edge Nova (Clemson 62%)
Experience: Draw (Clemson is an older team but its their first NCAA appearance since 1998, while Nova is young but has a few guys making their 3rd straight NCAA appearance.

Overall
I like the matchup because I think it puts all the pressure on our backcourt, which I think is the strength of this team. Clemson's press and how we handle it will dictate everything in this game from tempo, to open 3-point looks, to foul trouble to our defense. Our guys are talented enough and tough enough to handle it effectively, but I worry about whether they are mature enough and patient enough to execute consistently under constant duress. Next year I think this Nova squad wins this game relatively easily, but are they too young to pull it off this year? Jay needs to do a good job of in-game x's and o's coaching (not his strength) to put the guys in a good position to execute.

My Prediction
Both teams start out a little sluggish offensively - Nova because they are getting used to the Clemson press and Clemson because they are a little tight having no NCAA experience on the roster. Both teams settle down in the 2nd half but the game remains tight down to the wire. Foul trouble, shot selection and free throws are HUGE down the stretch and...(call me a homer, but)...Nova pulls the upset 71-68!