Villanova - Kansas preview

The Challenge
Remember the Florida team we lost to two years ago in the Elite 8? Remember the UNC team we lost to in 2005 on that last second traveling call? Both of those teams went on to win the national championship and this Kansas team is just as good. Kansas has 5 or 6 guys that could potentially be in the NBA next year if they choose to leave early, and another 3 that are very good role players. That lineup includes 2 of the best 3-point shooters in the country, in 6'1" point guard Mario Chalmers and 6'6" wing Brandon Rush. And their 6th man is a 5'11" point guard with superior quickness and toughness, in the mold of Kyle Lowry. Oh, and did I mention that the 7th and 8th guys in their rotation are each 6'11"? Thats right, they have two 7-footers coming OFF THE BENCH!

All of that leads to tremendous balance in their offense - 5 guys average in double figures - and while any one of about 6 guys is capable of going off for 30 points in any given game, it is much more likely that they will end up having 3 guys with 15 points instead. They are in the top 10 in the nation in nearly every statistical category that matters - scoring avg, scoring margin, rebounding, fg % defense, turnover margin, steals, blocked shots, etc. Given all of that, it is no wonder that we are 11.5 point underdogs and nobody is giving us a chance. But then again, that is what they said about our Sweet 16 matchup with UNC in 2005 (right after we lost Sumpter) and we gave them all they could handle...

Blue-print for a victory
1. In their 3 losses this season (yes, only 3) Darrell Arthur, their best and most athletic big man, has been saddled with foul trouble. He is not comfortable on defense playing more than 7-8 feet away from the basket. Dante & Pena need to catch the ball in the high post and take it at him aggressively. He is athletic enough to block everything they throw up there but its worth the risk in return for the chance that he picks up a couple quick fouls.

2. More so than Clemson or Siena, these guys like to play up-tempo. If we try to run with them, they will blow us out of the gym. They average over 82 points per game, yet in their 3 losses they have averaged a mere 68. We need to slow it down and keep this game in the 60's.

3. You can't stop everybody, the talent disparity is too great. So Jay has to pick his spots and if I had a vote it would go towards trying to control Mario Chalmers. While Arthur and Rush are probably their best NBA prospects, I happen to think Chalmers is their most valuable player. Chalmers is basically a clone of Scottie Reynolds, and perhaps slightly better. He doesn't score as much as Scottie (mainly due to the team balance), but he's a better shooter (a ridiculous 47% from 3!), a better passer and a much better defender. Like Scottie, he drives hard to the basket off of ball-screens, but moreso than Scottie he looks to dish to slashing cutters and athletic big guys for dunks. Jay will have to come up with a gameplan that includes a committee of defenders and constantly changing schemes (press, traps, hedges, etc) that will hopefully confuse and exhaust Chalmers. The idea is that if you disrupt the point guard, hopefully you can disrupt the entire offense.

4. Play the "Villanova Basketball" that Jay always talks about. In other words, win it with Big East toughness. Beat them to every loose ball, scrap out offensive rebounds, be physical, take charges and never back down. This is one of the few areas where I think we have an edge over Kansas (they rely on talent to win so often that they don't need to play with superior toughness) and we need to take full advantage.

5. This may sound obvious, but the longer we can hang around the better chance we have to take this thing down to the wire. Jay's first order of business has to be withstanding the initial overwhelmingly athletic wave they will throw at us. He has to keep our guys poised and prevent us from getting our doors blown off before the first TV timeout. Once our guys and their guys both realize we can play with them, the psychological effects can be huge. Kansas, and Bill Self in particular, has a history of choking in the tournament and it will be interesting to see how they handle it if their offense stalls a little bit and we are hanging around in the 2nd half. And any of you that watched the Georgetown-Davidson game the other day saw what a little confidence and momentum can do for an underdog playing with nothing to lose.

I didn't really address our offense in this blueprint because its a given that we will need to be clicking on all cylinders, getting to the rim, knocking down 3's, hitting the offensive boards, etc. Likewise, I'm not gonna do the "Category: Edge Team A" because it is all one-sided on paper. Make no mistake, its gonna take our A+ game and Kansas' C- game for us to pull this off. A tall order? Absolutely. Is it impossible? No way, this is March Madness...