Villanova - Siena Preview

Five things you need to know about the Nova-Siena matchup
1. Walking into the gym, Villanova has an immediate advantage in talent, experience and size. Big East level recruiting is just on a different playing field than the MAAC and Siena doesn't have anybody of the pedigree of Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher or Corey Stokes. That said, Siena plays very good team basketball with great ball movement and streaky shooting. And in the 2nd round of the NCAA tournament you can't take anyone lightly - this is a team that beat 4th seeded Vandy by 20 and is carrying significant momentum and confidence.

2. Siena is a very good 3-point shooting team and that is the thing that worries me most about tomorrow given Nova's defensive struggles at times this season. Perimeter defense will be critical and is the # 1 key to the game in my opinion. Siena's starters shoot well as it is, and then they have a 5'9" 3-point specialist named Tay Fisher that comes off the bench and shoot 45% from behind the arc - our guards will need to keep tabs on him whenever he comes into the game. He was 6 for 6 from behind the arc against Vandy.

3. Siena has a serious lack of size - 6 of their top 8 scorers are guards and their top "big" guys are 6'5" and 6'7". 6'5" sophomore Alex Franklin is athletic enough to compete on the boards, but as a team they are often outrebounded. Nova needs to take advantage on the offensive glass and attack the paint early and often. Scottie & Fisher need to drive the lane and Cunningham and Pena need to get plenty of touches. This is not the game to settle for long jumpers.

4. What Siena lacks in the frontcourt, they make up for in the backcourt. They have lots of good athletic guards and employ a 3 guard offense. 6'3" junior do-it-all guard Kenny Hasbrouck leads the way, while 6'6" sophomore wing Edwin Ubiles is a great shooter and actually leads the team in scoring. Paired with the 3-point specialist Fisher, this trio is very capable of getting hot and lighting it up from outside (just ask Vandy). Point guard Ronald Moore runs the show and is very effective at distributing the ball. The plethora of ball handlers translates to only 11 turnovers per game, 7th best in the country.

5. Similar to Clemson, Siena's guard-oriented attack is best in an up-tempo game. They don't press much, but they will try to run when they get the chance. Nova will need to slow it down somewhat and look to exploit the inherent advantages (talent, size) in the halfcourt set.

Backcourt: Draw (Nova in talent, Siena in depth)
Turnovers: Siena
3-point shooting: Siena
Frontcourt: Nova
Bench: Nova
Rebounding: Nova
Free-throw shooting: Nova 73% (Siena 69%)
Experience: Nova (both teams are young but this is Siena's first NCAA appearance since 2002)

Overall: While no pushover, Siena is not a defensive stalwart so I'm not too concerned about our ability to score. Instead, this game comes down to Nova's ability to defend the perimeter. If we play D like we did against Clemson in the 2nd half, we win. Period. If we allow their guards to penetrate and kick out to open shooters and they get hot, we are in trouble. We don't want to get into a 3-point shootout with these guys cause that negates our advantages. We need to slow it down, play solid D and methodically attack them with penetration and solid ball movement.

Prediction: Siena's 3-point shooting and lack of turnovers keeps them in the game but ultimately their mediocre D can't stop Nova's superior talent down the stretch. Nova wins 72-65!