Villanova 2008-2009 Season Preview - Part 4

Keys to the Season (11/13)

1. In my mind the biggest key to this season is the development of Corey Stokes and Antonio Pena. Along with Corey Fisher, these guys must grow up in a hurry - there is no time for them to be role players anymore. We know what to expect from most of the players on this team - we know that Reynolds will be a great scorer and team leader, that Cunningham will give us 10-12 points and 6-8 boards every night, that Drummond and Clark will provide help on the glass, and that Anderson and Redding will be solid if unspectacular contributors on the wing. And while Fisher should improve this year, he had a solid freshman year and I feel that we know what type of player he will be going forward. What we don't know is what we will get from Stokes and Pena. These are the two most athletic, physically gifted, NBA-ready bodies we have on the roster and their potential is sky-high as a result. Stokes struggled mightily to adjust to Jay Wright's defensive standards last year and shot only 24% from 3 point range thru mid-February before finally cracking the starting lineup, shooting a more respectable 36% from behind the arc and averaging 12.8 points per game down the stretch. While Stokes appeared to go through a gradual progression last year, Antonio Pena mixed flashes of brilliance with stretches of little production. He scored in double figures 11 times last season, but mixed those in with 8 games in which he scored two points or less. Similarly, he grabbed 6 or more rebounds eight times but also had eight games where he failed to grab more than 2 rebounds. They say players make the biggest leap in development from freshman to sophomore year...so the question is...will these guys make the "leap" to become stars or will we see more of the inconsistency we saw last year?

Make no mistake, this development is much bigger than the individual performances of Corey Stokes and Antonio Pena. In fact, I would say that this team goes only as far as these two guys can take them - Reynolds can't do it by all by himself, and quite frankly whether Scottie averages 15 points or 22 points won't change the team's overall performance much. But Stokes and Pena have the ability to change the dynamic of the entire offense. Pena's continued development in the paint will take pressure off of Cunningham and force opposing teams to defend two legitimate scoring threats in the post. Most teams, even at the Big East level, have one exceptional interior defender but not two. If he can give the team what Cunningham provided last year (10 points, 6 rebounds per game), this team will be very tough to stop. Corey Stokes' ability to stretch the defense with the long-range shot (assuming he is knocking them down) will open up room for the big guys to operate in the paint and create opportunities for Reynolds and Fisher to drive to the basket. The space that this will create, combined with what should be improved decision-making from Reynolds and Fisher will lead to greater scoring balance than we've seen the last 2 seasons. As a result we could see as many as 5 guys average double figures in scoring.

Reynolds will still be the leading scorer and best player, but the faster Stokes and Pena close that gap, the better this team will be. I liken this to when Allan Ray, Randy Foye, and Curtis Sumpter started their careers. For the first two years, Ray was clearly the best of the trio, led the team in scoring and was the go-to guy. And then even though Ray never faded, Foye and Sumpter suddenly caught up and eventually passed Ray as the team's best players. If Stokes and Pena start to catch up to Reynolds, and the physical talent is there to do it, then suddenly this team will have three stars instead of one. Then, and ONLY then, will this team be a Final Four contender.

2. The next biggest key to the season is perimeter defense. While this team isn't necessarily built to run all game long, they have plenty of scoring options. Therefore, it will come down to defending well enough to scrap out wins in the Big East. The experienced roster returning helps that cause, but there is a question about whether Jay Wright's preferred "big" lineup (Reynolds, Stokes, Anderson, Pena, Cunningham) is quick enough on the perimeter to defend other Big East backcourts. I believe the interior defense will be solid, especially if Drummond is healthy enough to contribute big minutes but Stokes and Anderson have to be able to defend other Big East wing players one on one. They certainly have the size, but my concern is whether they are quick enough to prevent guys like Sam Young, Jerel McNeal and Jerome Dyson from going around them. Jay could always put Corey Fisher out there for additional quickness but then you are back to the small defensive lineup that Jay seemed to hate last season. Reggie Redding, a good defender, is another option, but Redding doesn't provide as much firepower on the offensive end. Jay will have to pull these strings carefully throughout the season to keep opposing teams off-balance and get what he wants out of his defense. From 2005-2007, Villanova ranked in the Top 15 nationally in defensive efficiency (a term us hoops junkies use to describe points allowed per possession), while last year's team fell to 34th. The team will need to get back up into the Top 20 to go where it wants to go.

3. Finally, and this is a no-brainer but still worth stating: staying healthy will be key. The Big East conference is a physical battle every night and guys get banged up, bruised and battered on a regular basis. Playing hurt is a fact of life. But the team has to find a way to avoid serious injury and keep guys fresh during the long season. Drummond was out for extended periods last season and Shane Clark has already had knee surgery to begin this season. This team has lots of talent and good depth but still can't afford a rash of injuries if it expects to earn victories in this season's Big East.