Early Season Observations

Believe it or not, the regular season is ¼ of the way complete so I thought I’d share some observations. Villanova is 8-0 and ranked #16 in the nation, but it is hard to get a read on what exactly that means cause the team’s strength of schedule to date is ranked 254^th out of 343 Division I teams. The game against #8 Texas on Tuesday night at Madison Square Garden will be a huge test for this team and a good barometer for where the Cats stand on the national scale. Accordingly, Jay Wright stated the following last week:

“We want to get tested. If it was our fourth game, I don’t know if we’d be ready (but) we’re going to know where we are. We’re 8-0, and no one knows what that means. We’re (ranked) 17, but there could be 30 teams better than us. Or we could be better than some who are ranked ahead of us.”

In fact, several national writers and voters including Andy Katz and Pat Forde of ESPN do not have Nova ranked in the Top 25 at all. So if Jay’s team can pull off a victory (or at least keep it close) it will legitimize the team’s ranking. In addition, this game is Nova’s lone opportunity this season to get a top notch non-conference victory, which could have a significant impact in March. Despite the subpar competition thus far, here is what I’ve noticed:

The Good
1. Dante Cunningham has been incredible thus far. He is using an array of post moves to power his way to the bucket, he’s finishing well and he’s hitting the mid-range jumper, which is huge. He’s currently leading the team with 17.3 points and 8.0 rebounds per game and will be our best big man since Michael Bradley if he keeps it up. In short, he adds a completely new dimension to this team’s offense. In addition, he is bringing Will Sheridan-like basketball IQ and leadership to anchor the back line of the defense.

2. Largely due to the emergence of Cunningham, Jay Wright has directed more of a concerted effort this year to look inside early in the shot clock. As a result, we are seeing less of the “take-‘em” offense than the last couple years. While Reynolds and Fisher clearly still have the green-light to take defenders off the dribble, the more structured ball movement is creating more open looks than in the past. You can tell these guys have played together for a while and are very comfortable with the spacing on offense and know when and where to look for open teammates.

3. While Cunningham’s newfound scoring touch is getting most of the attention, Scottie Reynolds is quietly playing exceptionally well as more of a pure point guard than ever before. While his scoring is down slightly (14.0 points per game, down from 15.9 last season), he is making a concerted effort to get teammates involved first and looking for his shot second. As a result, he is averaging a career-high 4.8 assists per game and more importantly, his assist-to-turnover ratio is an impressive 2.11. I fully expect him to lead this team in scoring by the end of the season, but the effort he is investing in getting teammates involved now will pay dividends for the team’s offense down the road.

4. Corey Stokes is knocking down 51% of his 3 point attempts this season, which is huge considering he shot a lowly 25% from 3 thru eight games last season. He is much more assertive in looking for his shot this year (averaging 12.9 points per game) and the fact that he is knocking them down at an impressive clip is stretching defenses and opening up opportunities for teammates.

The Bad
1. The lack of frontcourt depth is quite alarming as this team heads towards the nightly battles of Big East play. Cunningham and Pena are solid despite being slightly undersized, but when they get in foul trouble we are now relying on a rail-thin Shane Clark and a 6’6” Dwayne Anderson (assuming he comes back healthy) to hold down the fort on the boards and protect the rim on defense. This is where the Drummond transfer hurts more than anything and I fear that this will once again be the team’s downfall in March. The optimists point to the fact that Drummond wasn’t even playing yet and didn’t play for much of last year, but the fact is that the real potential for this team was in the combination of a fabulous backcourt with a solid frontcourt where we had 3 interchangeable parts (Cunningham, Pena, Drummond) that could all rebound and finish inside. As it stands now, we still have the fabulous backcourt, but our front-court is now average at best compared to Big East and NCAA tourney teams due to its lack of depth. It might be good enough to get to the Sweet 16, but the first NCAA team we run into with a great frontline (such as UNC in 2005, Florida in 2006, Kentucky in 2007, Kansas in 2008) will likely eat us alive inside and on the boards.

2. In Jay’s base man-to-man defense, he likes his players to “switch” on screens if they can’t fight thru them, rather than give up a step to the guy coming off the screen. It is hard to say whether this helps or hurts the overall defense, but the constant switching on D leads to our big men matched up against smaller players and often results in them picking up fouls away from the basket. Given the lack of frontcourt depth mentioned above AND the effect Cunningham’s emergence has had on the offense, we simply can’t afford for our guys to be in foul trouble.

3. While Antonio Pena (9.3 points and 5.6 rebounds per game) is playing a bigger role on this team, he has not quite made the leap to stardom that I had called for in my Keys to the Season. Despite shooting an impressive 60% from the field, he is just not asserting himself enough to be a consistent scoring threat. He is taking a mere 5 shots per game. Part of that is deference to Cunningham and part of it is limited minutes due to being in foul trouble in 4 of the 8 games, but this offense will not reach its full potential until he is a legitimate threat to score every time he touches the ball.

Burning Questions:

1. Will Cunningham continue his stellar production once Big East play starts? He is playing at an incredible level right now, but its hard to say how legit that is given the subpar competition he’s faced. When the big men go from being 6’7” like they are now to 6’10” in the Big East we will find out.

2. Will Stokes continue to shoot well against tougher competition? He is averaging 12.9 points per game and shooting 51% from 3-point range overall, but against our toughest 2 opponents to date (Niagara and URI) he has averaged only 5.5 ppg and 33% from 3.

3. Will Dwayne Anderson come back 100% and be as effective as he was down the stretch last season? He doesn’t necessarily excel in any one area, but he definitely provides a spark of energy and athleticism that is invaluable in Big East games.

4. Will Cunningham and Pena be able to effectively defend Big East big men like Thabeet, Samuels, Monroe, Harangody, Blair and Onuaku without getting into foul trouble?

5. Will our guys be able to remain healthy from here on out? We have already had 2 major injuries to guys in our rotation, which hasn’t hurt us yet, but with an 8-man rotation we can’t afford to be missing guys during conference play.