Updated Plus/Minus (thru Lasalle)

Hey folks, updated plus-minus stats are posted below. The first list is the total plus minus stats per minute for the season thus far, thru 11 games (for most players). (Note that Anderson has only played in 6 games and Drummond has been out with a stress fracture in his ankle since the Temple game and will be out another 4-6 weeks, so he has only played in 8 games). The second list only takes into account the last 6 games (games since the Orlando tourney), which kind of gives you a feel for how guys are playing lately. Going forward, I will continue to update this every 6 games and since the Big East schedule now has 18 games, that will work out rather nicely to account for 1/3 of the conference season per update. If you don't understand any of this, scroll down to the "Five Game Team Assessment" post which explains how this works. (Or if you don't feel like reading that, just know the higher the better).

Season
Anderson, 0.85 (6 games)
Grant, 0.40
Fisher, 0.38
Reynolds, 0.34
Clark, 0.33
Cunningham, 0.31
Pena, 0.25
Stokes, 0.24
Redding, 0.21
Drummond, 0.18 (8 games)

Last 6 games
Anderson, 1.11 (3 games)
Pena, 0.53
Fisher, 0.44
Reynolds, 0.43
Stokes, 0.39
Cunningham, 0.38
Grant, 0.38
Clark, 0.29 (5 games)
Redding, 0.19
Drummond, 0.17 (3 games)

It should be noted that Anderson has only played 47 minutes all season - by contrast, Reynolds has played 374...so Anderson's plus/minus numbers are based on a very small sample size and the overall number will likely decrease with more minutes. That said, the kid has made a very positive impact in the limited opportunities that he's had and with Drummond out, expect him to get more opportunities as guys like Clark and Pena slide into the frontcourt opening up minutes for Anderson at the small forward position.

Anyway, aside from Anderson the first set of data shows that we are best when the lineup of Grant, Reynolds, Fisher, Clark and Cunningham are on the floor together. Not surprisingly, this is often the lineup that is on the floor during crunch time, late in games. Expect to see more of that 3-guard trio as Grant and Fisher continue to grasp the defensive intensity that Jay wants, with Redding losing a few minutes as a result. The data is not flawless, but it also shows that despite the apparent impact that Drum is having on the boards, his overall impact isn't as impressive. I was as surprised by this as anyone cause he looks tremendous when you watch him on TV. But, it may be that while he's grabbing 12 boards out there, he's also giving up enough points defensively to nearly cancel out his postive impact. On the contrary, a guy like Cunningham may grab 7 boards, but play better D and have a better overall impact.

While the 2nd set of data should be expected to have higher numbers all around due to the level of competition, it re-inforces that the top guys in the rotation are consistently playing well. But more importantly, it also shows that some of the younger guys who struggled a bit early, are coming into their own of late. Antonio Pena, for example, has gone from an average -0.59 per minute (yes that NEGATIVE is correct) in his first 3 games, to a 0.53 over his last 6 games. In other words, at the very beginning of the year, every 2 minutes that Pena played was costing us 1 point in the game and now every 2 minutes that he plays is gaining us a point in the game. This is good news, considering Pena will be seeing a lot more playing time while Drummond is out. Similarly, our McDonald's All-American Corey Stokes, while still not having found his deadly 3-point stroke (seems to be rushing his shot), is settling in and doing other things well enough lately to have a very positive (0.39) impact when he is on the floor.

Overall, entering much tougher competition in Big East play, these numbers will likely decrease somewhat as the scoring margins will naturally decrease, but as the young guys gain experience and the team gels this should become a very deep team without much dropoff from the starting 5 to the first few guys off the bench.

Big East Preview

So I was all set to do a Big East preview, thinking I would have to rush to get it up before the slew of games started this week, when I read this Andy Glockner ESPN preview which is pretty much the way I would've gone with it. The main themes are 1) there is no real pre-defined conference hierarchy (lots of parity) unlike most years and 2) there have been a lot of injuries....both of which lead to a lot of question marks.

Anyway, instead of re-hashing the ESPN article, I will just make a prediction as to how it will finish up and add a little tidbit for each team. Basically, even though Georgetown has to be the favorite having just come off a Final Four run, there are about a half-dozen teams that I can see winning the conference title. And likewise, there are about a dozen teams that have a chance to earn an NCAA tourney bid. In other words, there is not a whole lot on paper separating a team that will finish 3rd from a team that will finish 10th. It will come down to toughness, good coaching, execution and a few lucky bounces.

The Favorites
1. Georgetown - still learning to play without the heady Jeff Green, but loaded with talent and experience.
2. Marquette - the talented guard trio finally has some size up-front to complement the perimeter game.
3. Louisville - plagued by early season injuries and "Caracter" issues, but Pitino will pull it together by March.

The Contenders
4. Pitt - two devastating injuries knock them down a notch, but Jamie Dixon always gets the most out of his teams.
5. Villanova - loads of young talent that can score at will, but will the D improve in time to make a run?
6. WVU - Bob Huggins has done a nice job of combining Beilein's 3-pt shooters with his tough defensive philosophy.

Bubble Teams
7. Providence - they've had decent talent for a few years, now they have experience - can Welch put it all together?
8. UConn - Essentially the same team as last year that started # 11 but then missed the NIT. Can Calhoun fix them?
9. Syracuse - a preseason contender but the ACL injury to Devendorf makes this a very young, albeit talented, team.
10. Notre Dame - the Irish lost their top two scorers from last year, but return a lot of experienced players.

NCAA Long-shots
11. Seton Hall - A great backcourt that gives them an outside chance to at an at-large bid, but no production from the big guys.
12. USF - Stan Heath gives this improving program some credibility, but they are likely still a couple years away.

Will be lucky to make the Big East Tournament
13. Depaul - Draelon Burns may end up leading the conference in scoring and may win a few games on his own, but the rest of the team is young and raw.
14. Cincy - A young team that plays hard and will give teams fits but is too inconsistent to make any real noise.
15. SJU - Norm Roberts has found recruiting to be suprisingly difficult in NYC and this team lacks talent as a result.
16. Rutgers - Fred Hill can recruit, but he has not yet proven he can coach. This team is as offensively inept as they come.