The Challenge
Remember the Florida team we lost to two years ago in the Elite 8? Remember the UNC team we lost to in 2005 on that last second traveling call? Both of those teams went on to win the national championship and this Kansas team is just as good. Kansas has 5 or 6 guys that could potentially be in the NBA next year if they choose to leave early, and another 3 that are very good role players. That lineup includes 2 of the best 3-point shooters in the country, in 6'1" point guard Mario Chalmers and 6'6" wing Brandon Rush. And their 6th man is a 5'11" point guard with superior quickness and toughness, in the mold of Kyle Lowry. Oh, and did I mention that the 7th and 8th guys in their rotation are each 6'11"? Thats right, they have two 7-footers coming OFF THE BENCH!
All of that leads to tremendous balance in their offense - 5 guys average in double figures - and while any one of about 6 guys is capable of going off for 30 points in any given game, it is much more likely that they will end up having 3 guys with 15 points instead. They are in the top 10 in the nation in nearly every statistical category that matters - scoring avg, scoring margin, rebounding, fg % defense, turnover margin, steals, blocked shots, etc. Given all of that, it is no wonder that we are 11.5 point underdogs and nobody is giving us a chance. But then again, that is what they said about our Sweet 16 matchup with UNC in 2005 (right after we lost Sumpter) and we gave them all they could handle...
Blue-print for a victory
1. In their 3 losses this season (yes, only 3) Darrell Arthur, their best and most athletic big man, has been saddled with foul trouble. He is not comfortable on defense playing more than 7-8 feet away from the basket. Dante & Pena need to catch the ball in the high post and take it at him aggressively. He is athletic enough to block everything they throw up there but its worth the risk in return for the chance that he picks up a couple quick fouls.
2. More so than Clemson or Siena, these guys like to play up-tempo. If we try to run with them, they will blow us out of the gym. They average over 82 points per game, yet in their 3 losses they have averaged a mere 68. We need to slow it down and keep this game in the 60's.
3. You can't stop everybody, the talent disparity is too great. So Jay has to pick his spots and if I had a vote it would go towards trying to control Mario Chalmers. While Arthur and Rush are probably their best NBA prospects, I happen to think Chalmers is their most valuable player. Chalmers is basically a clone of Scottie Reynolds, and perhaps slightly better. He doesn't score as much as Scottie (mainly due to the team balance), but he's a better shooter (a ridiculous 47% from 3!), a better passer and a much better defender. Like Scottie, he drives hard to the basket off of ball-screens, but moreso than Scottie he looks to dish to slashing cutters and athletic big guys for dunks. Jay will have to come up with a gameplan that includes a committee of defenders and constantly changing schemes (press, traps, hedges, etc) that will hopefully confuse and exhaust Chalmers. The idea is that if you disrupt the point guard, hopefully you can disrupt the entire offense.
4. Play the "Villanova Basketball" that Jay always talks about. In other words, win it with Big East toughness. Beat them to every loose ball, scrap out offensive rebounds, be physical, take charges and never back down. This is one of the few areas where I think we have an edge over Kansas (they rely on talent to win so often that they don't need to play with superior toughness) and we need to take full advantage.
5. This may sound obvious, but the longer we can hang around the better chance we have to take this thing down to the wire. Jay's first order of business has to be withstanding the initial overwhelmingly athletic wave they will throw at us. He has to keep our guys poised and prevent us from getting our doors blown off before the first TV timeout. Once our guys and their guys both realize we can play with them, the psychological effects can be huge. Kansas, and Bill Self in particular, has a history of choking in the tournament and it will be interesting to see how they handle it if their offense stalls a little bit and we are hanging around in the 2nd half. And any of you that watched the Georgetown-Davidson game the other day saw what a little confidence and momentum can do for an underdog playing with nothing to lose.
I didn't really address our offense in this blueprint because its a given that we will need to be clicking on all cylinders, getting to the rim, knocking down 3's, hitting the offensive boards, etc. Likewise, I'm not gonna do the "Category: Edge Team A" because it is all one-sided on paper. Make no mistake, its gonna take our A+ game and Kansas' C- game for us to pull this off. A tall order? Absolutely. Is it impossible? No way, this is March Madness...
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Saturday, March 22, 2008
Villanova - Siena Preview
Five things you need to know about the Nova-Siena matchup
1. Walking into the gym, Villanova has an immediate advantage in talent, experience and size. Big East level recruiting is just on a different playing field than the MAAC and Siena doesn't have anybody of the pedigree of Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher or Corey Stokes. That said, Siena plays very good team basketball with great ball movement and streaky shooting. And in the 2nd round of the NCAA tournament you can't take anyone lightly - this is a team that beat 4th seeded Vandy by 20 and is carrying significant momentum and confidence.
2. Siena is a very good 3-point shooting team and that is the thing that worries me most about tomorrow given Nova's defensive struggles at times this season. Perimeter defense will be critical and is the # 1 key to the game in my opinion. Siena's starters shoot well as it is, and then they have a 5'9" 3-point specialist named Tay Fisher that comes off the bench and shoot 45% from behind the arc - our guards will need to keep tabs on him whenever he comes into the game. He was 6 for 6 from behind the arc against Vandy.
3. Siena has a serious lack of size - 6 of their top 8 scorers are guards and their top "big" guys are 6'5" and 6'7". 6'5" sophomore Alex Franklin is athletic enough to compete on the boards, but as a team they are often outrebounded. Nova needs to take advantage on the offensive glass and attack the paint early and often. Scottie & Fisher need to drive the lane and Cunningham and Pena need to get plenty of touches. This is not the game to settle for long jumpers.
4. What Siena lacks in the frontcourt, they make up for in the backcourt. They have lots of good athletic guards and employ a 3 guard offense. 6'3" junior do-it-all guard Kenny Hasbrouck leads the way, while 6'6" sophomore wing Edwin Ubiles is a great shooter and actually leads the team in scoring. Paired with the 3-point specialist Fisher, this trio is very capable of getting hot and lighting it up from outside (just ask Vandy). Point guard Ronald Moore runs the show and is very effective at distributing the ball. The plethora of ball handlers translates to only 11 turnovers per game, 7th best in the country.
5. Similar to Clemson, Siena's guard-oriented attack is best in an up-tempo game. They don't press much, but they will try to run when they get the chance. Nova will need to slow it down somewhat and look to exploit the inherent advantages (talent, size) in the halfcourt set.
Backcourt: Draw (Nova in talent, Siena in depth)
Turnovers: Siena
3-point shooting: Siena
Frontcourt: Nova
Bench: Nova
Rebounding: Nova
Free-throw shooting: Nova 73% (Siena 69%)
Experience: Nova (both teams are young but this is Siena's first NCAA appearance since 2002)
Overall: While no pushover, Siena is not a defensive stalwart so I'm not too concerned about our ability to score. Instead, this game comes down to Nova's ability to defend the perimeter. If we play D like we did against Clemson in the 2nd half, we win. Period. If we allow their guards to penetrate and kick out to open shooters and they get hot, we are in trouble. We don't want to get into a 3-point shootout with these guys cause that negates our advantages. We need to slow it down, play solid D and methodically attack them with penetration and solid ball movement.
Prediction: Siena's 3-point shooting and lack of turnovers keeps them in the game but ultimately their mediocre D can't stop Nova's superior talent down the stretch. Nova wins 72-65!
1. Walking into the gym, Villanova has an immediate advantage in talent, experience and size. Big East level recruiting is just on a different playing field than the MAAC and Siena doesn't have anybody of the pedigree of Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher or Corey Stokes. That said, Siena plays very good team basketball with great ball movement and streaky shooting. And in the 2nd round of the NCAA tournament you can't take anyone lightly - this is a team that beat 4th seeded Vandy by 20 and is carrying significant momentum and confidence.
2. Siena is a very good 3-point shooting team and that is the thing that worries me most about tomorrow given Nova's defensive struggles at times this season. Perimeter defense will be critical and is the # 1 key to the game in my opinion. Siena's starters shoot well as it is, and then they have a 5'9" 3-point specialist named Tay Fisher that comes off the bench and shoot 45% from behind the arc - our guards will need to keep tabs on him whenever he comes into the game. He was 6 for 6 from behind the arc against Vandy.
3. Siena has a serious lack of size - 6 of their top 8 scorers are guards and their top "big" guys are 6'5" and 6'7". 6'5" sophomore Alex Franklin is athletic enough to compete on the boards, but as a team they are often outrebounded. Nova needs to take advantage on the offensive glass and attack the paint early and often. Scottie & Fisher need to drive the lane and Cunningham and Pena need to get plenty of touches. This is not the game to settle for long jumpers.
4. What Siena lacks in the frontcourt, they make up for in the backcourt. They have lots of good athletic guards and employ a 3 guard offense. 6'3" junior do-it-all guard Kenny Hasbrouck leads the way, while 6'6" sophomore wing Edwin Ubiles is a great shooter and actually leads the team in scoring. Paired with the 3-point specialist Fisher, this trio is very capable of getting hot and lighting it up from outside (just ask Vandy). Point guard Ronald Moore runs the show and is very effective at distributing the ball. The plethora of ball handlers translates to only 11 turnovers per game, 7th best in the country.
5. Similar to Clemson, Siena's guard-oriented attack is best in an up-tempo game. They don't press much, but they will try to run when they get the chance. Nova will need to slow it down somewhat and look to exploit the inherent advantages (talent, size) in the halfcourt set.
Backcourt: Draw (Nova in talent, Siena in depth)
Turnovers: Siena
3-point shooting: Siena
Frontcourt: Nova
Bench: Nova
Rebounding: Nova
Free-throw shooting: Nova 73% (Siena 69%)
Experience: Nova (both teams are young but this is Siena's first NCAA appearance since 2002)
Overall: While no pushover, Siena is not a defensive stalwart so I'm not too concerned about our ability to score. Instead, this game comes down to Nova's ability to defend the perimeter. If we play D like we did against Clemson in the 2nd half, we win. Period. If we allow their guards to penetrate and kick out to open shooters and they get hot, we are in trouble. We don't want to get into a 3-point shootout with these guys cause that negates our advantages. We need to slow it down, play solid D and methodically attack them with penetration and solid ball movement.
Prediction: Siena's 3-point shooting and lack of turnovers keeps them in the game but ultimately their mediocre D can't stop Nova's superior talent down the stretch. Nova wins 72-65!
Friday, March 21, 2008
Villanova - Clemson preview
Admittedly, I have not seen many Clemson games this year but my initial reaction to the matchup was positive:
1. ACC = up-tempo but limited defense and a bit soft (compared to the Big East)
2. Clemson may be overseeded due to their ACC tournament run
3. We have just as much talent (if not more) on our roster.
4. They press - but it is very beatable.
I still believe those things, but after doing a little more research I have to give them more credit than I initially thought. They are very good and if we don't come out with our A game, they may very well run us out of the gym. In many ways, they are a slightly lesser version of what I hope our team becomes next year (I think we can do better than a 5 seed). That said, they do have a lot of flaws and the way Nova has been playing the last month or so, I think we will be right in this thing. Essentially they are pretty evenly matched teams - it just comes down to consistency - Clemson plays well almost every night while Nova is still learning how to do that (and sometimes plays flat out terribly) - and that is the difference in the seeding. If both teams play well, we are in for a classic 5-12 barn burner.
Here are my keys to the game:
Handle the pressure
Clemson runs 10 deep, they are very athletic and they have 4 quality guards they can run at you so they tend to press all game long and they create a lot of turnovers. That said, this can also be a weakness if the opposing guards know how to exploit it. North Carolina ran thru and around the press on the way to a win in the ACC tourney final. Our guards are good enough to be able to do this but they will have to be smart and patient. Corey Fisher will be a huge factor giving Scottie some help in the backcourt. Corey appears to have lost some confidence in his shot lately and his minutes have been dwindling, but he is perhaps our best ballhandler. We need him to contribute some quality minutes to take some pressure off of Scottie. If not, Scottie will be doing all the work to bring the ball up against the press, AND will be expected to do the bulk of the scoring - not a good combo. In addition to Fisher, I expect Jay to come up with a gameplan that employs a lot of Stokes, Anderson, Pena, Cunningham & Clark in the backcourt helping to break the press with effective cutting and passing.
Control Tempo
Clemson would love to play this game in the 80's while I'm sure Jay would prefer to keep it in the 60's. ACC teams in general like to run and play up-tempo and Clemson's press helps facilitate that kind of game. They create turnovers and try to fast break and when it doesn't work the opponent breaks the press and goes right to the basket - either way it leads to an up-tempo style of play which suits Clemson well. This is my biggest concern tomorrow, cause we all know how Scottie likes to go hard to the basket whenever he can. In my opinion, doing this immediately after breaking the press is a mistake against this team cause you are essentially trying to beat them at their own game. I'd prefer we break the press and then slow it down into a half-court offensive set and attack the D with our ball-screens and dribble penetration. Half-court Defense is one of Clemson's weaker points and having played against plenty of tough Big East defenses, I think the Cats can exploit this for open looks. Hopefully Stokes, Scottie, Fisher & Anderson are knocking them down tomorrow night so we can avoid the scoring droughts we sometimes encounter.
Foul Trouble
Obviously both teams want to stay out of foul trouble, but I think it is most critical for Reynolds, Cunningham & Anderson. Reynolds mainly because we lack a scoring punch when he's not out there. But I've also noticed that we play a lot better when Cunningham and Anderson are on the floor and that when we get into those early holes down 11 or 12 in the first half it is usually because either Dante or Dwayne is sitting on the bench with 2 first half fouls. And obviously if we can get the Clemson big guys in foul trouble that is always helpful.
Defense
Clemson has 5 guys averaging in double figures and a 6th at 8.6 points per game. 4 of those 6 guys are guards, 3 of which can really shoot it from beyond the 3-point arc (especially Oglesby). Perimeter defense will be critical. Does the Nova team that gave up 17 3's to Georgetown last week show up or the one that held Georgetown (the first time), UConn and West Virginia to a combined 25% from beyond the arc? The next key is stopping the penetration of KC Rivers and Cliff Hammonds - those are the guys that make the Clemson offense go. The Nova backcourt will expend a lot of energy breaking the Clemson press - will they have enough energy to defend effectively on the other end? Jay will have to utilize smart substitution patterns to get the most out of his guys.
Rebounding
Clemson doesnt have anyone that will tower over our guys (like Hibbert or Randolph Morris at Kentucky last year), but they are a good rebounding team because they have some bangers underneath and they get some help from their guards. Trevor Booker is a 6'7" 240lb linebacker-type power forward who is capable of being very effective. He had 6 blocks last week against national player of the year Tyler Hansbrough and UNC. 6'9" James Mays is another guy who does the dirty work down low. Cunningham, Pena and hopefully Drummond will have their hands full and they need to really focus on defensive rebounds - we can't afford to give Clemson 2nd chance opportunities.
Advantages:
Backcourt: Slight edge Nova
Frontcourt: Slight edge Clemson
Bench: Nova
Rebounding: Clemson
Free-throw shooting: Huge edge Nova (Clemson 62%)
Experience: Draw (Clemson is an older team but its their first NCAA appearance since 1998, while Nova is young but has a few guys making their 3rd straight NCAA appearance.
Overall
I like the matchup because I think it puts all the pressure on our backcourt, which I think is the strength of this team. Clemson's press and how we handle it will dictate everything in this game from tempo, to open 3-point looks, to foul trouble to our defense. Our guys are talented enough and tough enough to handle it effectively, but I worry about whether they are mature enough and patient enough to execute consistently under constant duress. Next year I think this Nova squad wins this game relatively easily, but are they too young to pull it off this year? Jay needs to do a good job of in-game x's and o's coaching (not his strength) to put the guys in a good position to execute.
My Prediction
Both teams start out a little sluggish offensively - Nova because they are getting used to the Clemson press and Clemson because they are a little tight having no NCAA experience on the roster. Both teams settle down in the 2nd half but the game remains tight down to the wire. Foul trouble, shot selection and free throws are HUGE down the stretch and...(call me a homer, but)...Nova pulls the upset 71-68!
1. ACC = up-tempo but limited defense and a bit soft (compared to the Big East)
2. Clemson may be overseeded due to their ACC tournament run
3. We have just as much talent (if not more) on our roster.
4. They press - but it is very beatable.
I still believe those things, but after doing a little more research I have to give them more credit than I initially thought. They are very good and if we don't come out with our A game, they may very well run us out of the gym. In many ways, they are a slightly lesser version of what I hope our team becomes next year (I think we can do better than a 5 seed). That said, they do have a lot of flaws and the way Nova has been playing the last month or so, I think we will be right in this thing. Essentially they are pretty evenly matched teams - it just comes down to consistency - Clemson plays well almost every night while Nova is still learning how to do that (and sometimes plays flat out terribly) - and that is the difference in the seeding. If both teams play well, we are in for a classic 5-12 barn burner.
Here are my keys to the game:
Handle the pressure
Clemson runs 10 deep, they are very athletic and they have 4 quality guards they can run at you so they tend to press all game long and they create a lot of turnovers. That said, this can also be a weakness if the opposing guards know how to exploit it. North Carolina ran thru and around the press on the way to a win in the ACC tourney final. Our guards are good enough to be able to do this but they will have to be smart and patient. Corey Fisher will be a huge factor giving Scottie some help in the backcourt. Corey appears to have lost some confidence in his shot lately and his minutes have been dwindling, but he is perhaps our best ballhandler. We need him to contribute some quality minutes to take some pressure off of Scottie. If not, Scottie will be doing all the work to bring the ball up against the press, AND will be expected to do the bulk of the scoring - not a good combo. In addition to Fisher, I expect Jay to come up with a gameplan that employs a lot of Stokes, Anderson, Pena, Cunningham & Clark in the backcourt helping to break the press with effective cutting and passing.
Control Tempo
Clemson would love to play this game in the 80's while I'm sure Jay would prefer to keep it in the 60's. ACC teams in general like to run and play up-tempo and Clemson's press helps facilitate that kind of game. They create turnovers and try to fast break and when it doesn't work the opponent breaks the press and goes right to the basket - either way it leads to an up-tempo style of play which suits Clemson well. This is my biggest concern tomorrow, cause we all know how Scottie likes to go hard to the basket whenever he can. In my opinion, doing this immediately after breaking the press is a mistake against this team cause you are essentially trying to beat them at their own game. I'd prefer we break the press and then slow it down into a half-court offensive set and attack the D with our ball-screens and dribble penetration. Half-court Defense is one of Clemson's weaker points and having played against plenty of tough Big East defenses, I think the Cats can exploit this for open looks. Hopefully Stokes, Scottie, Fisher & Anderson are knocking them down tomorrow night so we can avoid the scoring droughts we sometimes encounter.
Foul Trouble
Obviously both teams want to stay out of foul trouble, but I think it is most critical for Reynolds, Cunningham & Anderson. Reynolds mainly because we lack a scoring punch when he's not out there. But I've also noticed that we play a lot better when Cunningham and Anderson are on the floor and that when we get into those early holes down 11 or 12 in the first half it is usually because either Dante or Dwayne is sitting on the bench with 2 first half fouls. And obviously if we can get the Clemson big guys in foul trouble that is always helpful.
Defense
Clemson has 5 guys averaging in double figures and a 6th at 8.6 points per game. 4 of those 6 guys are guards, 3 of which can really shoot it from beyond the 3-point arc (especially Oglesby). Perimeter defense will be critical. Does the Nova team that gave up 17 3's to Georgetown last week show up or the one that held Georgetown (the first time), UConn and West Virginia to a combined 25% from beyond the arc? The next key is stopping the penetration of KC Rivers and Cliff Hammonds - those are the guys that make the Clemson offense go. The Nova backcourt will expend a lot of energy breaking the Clemson press - will they have enough energy to defend effectively on the other end? Jay will have to utilize smart substitution patterns to get the most out of his guys.
Rebounding
Clemson doesnt have anyone that will tower over our guys (like Hibbert or Randolph Morris at Kentucky last year), but they are a good rebounding team because they have some bangers underneath and they get some help from their guards. Trevor Booker is a 6'7" 240lb linebacker-type power forward who is capable of being very effective. He had 6 blocks last week against national player of the year Tyler Hansbrough and UNC. 6'9" James Mays is another guy who does the dirty work down low. Cunningham, Pena and hopefully Drummond will have their hands full and they need to really focus on defensive rebounds - we can't afford to give Clemson 2nd chance opportunities.
Advantages:
Backcourt: Slight edge Nova
Frontcourt: Slight edge Clemson
Bench: Nova
Rebounding: Clemson
Free-throw shooting: Huge edge Nova (Clemson 62%)
Experience: Draw (Clemson is an older team but its their first NCAA appearance since 1998, while Nova is young but has a few guys making their 3rd straight NCAA appearance.
Overall
I like the matchup because I think it puts all the pressure on our backcourt, which I think is the strength of this team. Clemson's press and how we handle it will dictate everything in this game from tempo, to open 3-point looks, to foul trouble to our defense. Our guys are talented enough and tough enough to handle it effectively, but I worry about whether they are mature enough and patient enough to execute consistently under constant duress. Next year I think this Nova squad wins this game relatively easily, but are they too young to pull it off this year? Jay needs to do a good job of in-game x's and o's coaching (not his strength) to put the guys in a good position to execute.
My Prediction
Both teams start out a little sluggish offensively - Nova because they are getting used to the Clemson press and Clemson because they are a little tight having no NCAA experience on the roster. Both teams settle down in the 2nd half but the game remains tight down to the wire. Foul trouble, shot selection and free throws are HUGE down the stretch and...(call me a homer, but)...Nova pulls the upset 71-68!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
