Villanova 2008-2009 Season Preview - Part 5

Five Fearless Predictions (11/14)

1. No Big East team will win 15 conference games.
Since the creation of the 16-team mega conference in 2005, the Big East champion has lost no more than 3 conference games. I think that changes this year. If a team can manage to get to 14-4, that should be good enough to win a conference this loaded. So while I predict that no team will win 15 league games, by the same token I think that as many as 10 teams will finish 9-9 or better. So you will have a cluster of teams between 9 and 14 wins, making each conference game that much more critical. As a result of teams beating each other up, I think it will be hard for any of the league's team's to maintain their Top 5 ranking throughout the season, but many of the middle of the pack teams will earn respect. So I think you will have 6 to 8 Big East teams fluctuating between # 8 and # 25 in the polls all season and as a result, the conference will get a record 9 bids to the NCAA tournament in March.

2. One middle of the pack Big East team will suffer a major breakdown this season.
I have to admit, this isn't a very risky pick, because depending on whom you talk to there are anywhere from 6 to 8 teams projected to be "middle of the pack." And lets face it, this league is tougher than ever this season, so its certainly possible that there is a team out there that doesn't step up this year and can't hang with the rest of the contenders. Any sort of injury bug, slow start by incoming freshmen or 5-game slump like the one Nova suffered last season could easily derail the hopes of a team that expects to get back to the NCAA tournament. The most likely candidates for this dubious honor are Marquette (not enough size), Georgetown (counting on young players), West Virginia (have to find a new go-to guy) and yes...Villanova. There, I said it. While I am optimistic about this team's talent, experience and potential, we have to remember that this is the same roster as last season...the same roster that lost to Rutgers by 12 and St. Joe's by 22 and struggled to finish .500 in the Big East. They had a nice run to finish the year, but if guys like Stokes and Pena don't step up, there is always the possibility that this team could revert back to the inconsistent play we saw for much of last season.

3. Corey Stokes will have a breakout year.
Despite my caveat in # 2 above, I really think Corey Stokes is primed to become this program's next big star. He clearly has the size, physique and skills to be an all-conference level player and I think he will begin to assert himself more this season. The struggles he went thru last season learning to play Jay Wright-level defense and do more than just spot-up for long 3's will only serve to make him a more complete all-around player for the rest of his career. This year, I foresee Stokes becoming the 2nd leading scorer and top 3-point shooter on this team, averaging around 15 points per game. His size and shooting range will provide the type of long-range threat this team hasn't had since Allan Ray graduated.

(Note: I realize that Reynolds is a very capable 3-point shooter, but he tends to create his own offense, which makes it very difficult to get uncontested looks. Having a guy like Stokes who can spot up on the wing and come off screens for wide-open looks just like Ray did, will be invaluable.)

4. Villanova will finally have a legitimate post presence.

With Dante Cunningham building on a solid junior season (10.4ppg, 6.5 rpg) and Antonio Pena showing glimpses of stardom last year, I think we will see the first productive interior scoring presence of the Jay Wright era. Both guys are somewhat undersized for Big East post players, but both are extremely athletic and have enough post skills to overcome their lack of height. Plus they compliment each other extremely well offensively as both know how to pass, screen, cut and finish. The attention placed on Reynolds and (hopefully) Stokes will give these guys plenty of opportunities to shine and I believe Jay Wright will take advantage of it. You will see less of the "take 'em" offense that we've seen so often the last few seasons (although Reynolds and Fisher will still have the green light) and more deliberate looks into the paint early in the shot-clock to get the big guys involved, creating more of an inside-out offense rather than outside-in. These guys will get every opportunity to become go-to guys when we need a clutch bucket or when our perimeter shooters are having a cold night. If they can improve on their free throw shooting (each guy shot 69% last season), they could both average double figures in scoring. Add a healthy Cassiem Drummond off the bench and this is a post presence like we haven't seen before. (If only the 2006 team had a frontcourt like this to go with all those guards).

5. Villanova will finish in the Top 5 of the Big East, earning a 5-seed in the NCAA tournament.
In a normal year, with this roster and this much experience, I'd predict a Top 2 Big East finish, a 25-win regular season and a 3 seed for Villanova in the NCAA tournament. But this year will be more about survival and preparation for March than about gaudy rankings and win totals. I think Villanova will get off to a good start, going something like 12-1 in the non-conference portion of the schedule - they've got enough experience back to avoid early season mental lapses. Then the Big East season will start and Jay Wright will be happy to win 2 out of every 3 games and every win will be a hard-fought battle. Don't expect any long winning streaks in January and February - the schedule is just too tough night in and night out - they just need to survive against teams they should beat, find a way to win the toss-ups and try to steal a game or two against the league's top teams. As a result of this constant up and down, the team will probably be overlooked nationally a bit, but they will certainly be battle-tested. (It will be difficult to continuously move up in the polls when you have another Top 25 opponent every other game...UNLESS you start knocking off the Louisville's and UConn's of the world). I'd say 12-6 is a good goal for this team in conference play, and I'll predict they finish 11-7 (23-8 overall), which should put them in a tie for 5th place. That, combined with a solid Big East tournament showing would be good enough to earn a 5 or 6 seed in the NCAA tournament, where they would be extremely dangerous because they will have played so many tough teams, in what should be close games.

Villanova 2008-2009 Season Preview - Part 4

Keys to the Season (11/13)

1. In my mind the biggest key to this season is the development of Corey Stokes and Antonio Pena. Along with Corey Fisher, these guys must grow up in a hurry - there is no time for them to be role players anymore. We know what to expect from most of the players on this team - we know that Reynolds will be a great scorer and team leader, that Cunningham will give us 10-12 points and 6-8 boards every night, that Drummond and Clark will provide help on the glass, and that Anderson and Redding will be solid if unspectacular contributors on the wing. And while Fisher should improve this year, he had a solid freshman year and I feel that we know what type of player he will be going forward. What we don't know is what we will get from Stokes and Pena. These are the two most athletic, physically gifted, NBA-ready bodies we have on the roster and their potential is sky-high as a result. Stokes struggled mightily to adjust to Jay Wright's defensive standards last year and shot only 24% from 3 point range thru mid-February before finally cracking the starting lineup, shooting a more respectable 36% from behind the arc and averaging 12.8 points per game down the stretch. While Stokes appeared to go through a gradual progression last year, Antonio Pena mixed flashes of brilliance with stretches of little production. He scored in double figures 11 times last season, but mixed those in with 8 games in which he scored two points or less. Similarly, he grabbed 6 or more rebounds eight times but also had eight games where he failed to grab more than 2 rebounds. They say players make the biggest leap in development from freshman to sophomore year...so the question is...will these guys make the "leap" to become stars or will we see more of the inconsistency we saw last year?

Make no mistake, this development is much bigger than the individual performances of Corey Stokes and Antonio Pena. In fact, I would say that this team goes only as far as these two guys can take them - Reynolds can't do it by all by himself, and quite frankly whether Scottie averages 15 points or 22 points won't change the team's overall performance much. But Stokes and Pena have the ability to change the dynamic of the entire offense. Pena's continued development in the paint will take pressure off of Cunningham and force opposing teams to defend two legitimate scoring threats in the post. Most teams, even at the Big East level, have one exceptional interior defender but not two. If he can give the team what Cunningham provided last year (10 points, 6 rebounds per game), this team will be very tough to stop. Corey Stokes' ability to stretch the defense with the long-range shot (assuming he is knocking them down) will open up room for the big guys to operate in the paint and create opportunities for Reynolds and Fisher to drive to the basket. The space that this will create, combined with what should be improved decision-making from Reynolds and Fisher will lead to greater scoring balance than we've seen the last 2 seasons. As a result we could see as many as 5 guys average double figures in scoring.

Reynolds will still be the leading scorer and best player, but the faster Stokes and Pena close that gap, the better this team will be. I liken this to when Allan Ray, Randy Foye, and Curtis Sumpter started their careers. For the first two years, Ray was clearly the best of the trio, led the team in scoring and was the go-to guy. And then even though Ray never faded, Foye and Sumpter suddenly caught up and eventually passed Ray as the team's best players. If Stokes and Pena start to catch up to Reynolds, and the physical talent is there to do it, then suddenly this team will have three stars instead of one. Then, and ONLY then, will this team be a Final Four contender.

2. The next biggest key to the season is perimeter defense. While this team isn't necessarily built to run all game long, they have plenty of scoring options. Therefore, it will come down to defending well enough to scrap out wins in the Big East. The experienced roster returning helps that cause, but there is a question about whether Jay Wright's preferred "big" lineup (Reynolds, Stokes, Anderson, Pena, Cunningham) is quick enough on the perimeter to defend other Big East backcourts. I believe the interior defense will be solid, especially if Drummond is healthy enough to contribute big minutes but Stokes and Anderson have to be able to defend other Big East wing players one on one. They certainly have the size, but my concern is whether they are quick enough to prevent guys like Sam Young, Jerel McNeal and Jerome Dyson from going around them. Jay could always put Corey Fisher out there for additional quickness but then you are back to the small defensive lineup that Jay seemed to hate last season. Reggie Redding, a good defender, is another option, but Redding doesn't provide as much firepower on the offensive end. Jay will have to pull these strings carefully throughout the season to keep opposing teams off-balance and get what he wants out of his defense. From 2005-2007, Villanova ranked in the Top 15 nationally in defensive efficiency (a term us hoops junkies use to describe points allowed per possession), while last year's team fell to 34th. The team will need to get back up into the Top 20 to go where it wants to go.

3. Finally, and this is a no-brainer but still worth stating: staying healthy will be key. The Big East conference is a physical battle every night and guys get banged up, bruised and battered on a regular basis. Playing hurt is a fact of life. But the team has to find a way to avoid serious injury and keep guys fresh during the long season. Drummond was out for extended periods last season and Shane Clark has already had knee surgery to begin this season. This team has lots of talent and good depth but still can't afford a rash of injuries if it expects to earn victories in this season's Big East.

Villanova 2008-2009 Season Preview - Part 3

What to Watch For (11/12)

Jay Wright has a lot of experience coming back, which should eliminate a lot of the lineup shifting that we saw during the first half of last season. Expect to see a starting lineup of Scottie Reynolds, Corey Stokes, Dwayne Anderson, Antonio Pena and Dante Cunningham. Shane Clark may have challenged Anderson or Pena for a starting spot but he just had arthroscopic knee surgery and will likely come off the bench when he returns in 4 to 6 weeks. And while Corey Fisher is probably one of the five most talented players on the roster and will receive "starters minutes", as one of this team's lone two point guards, Fisher will likely come off the bench as the 6th man to backup Reynolds and provide a change of pace. This also allows Jay to go with a bigger defensive lineup on the perimeter, something he clearly preferred last season. Redding, Drummond and (eventually) Clark will provide depth, experience and defense off the bench.

The biggest "news," or lack thereof, for this team is that everybody is back and there are no newcomers to integrate into the rotation (freshman Maurice Sutton will likely redshirt barring a rash of frontcourt injuries). While one of Jay Wright's shortcomings is that it takes young players an inordinant amount of time to adjust to his defensive standards, one of his strengths is that he is very good with an experienced team. I would even go so far as to say that experience is more important than talent for a Jay Wright-coached team. Luckily, this team has both. They are not exactly the 2006 Randy Foye led-team, but they aren't too far behind. They should be more balanced offensively this season with guys like Stokes, Anderson and Pena emerging as real scoring threats to take the pressure off of Reynolds and Cunningham. And the defense has a chance to pick up the intensity right where they left off the last month of last season. They might not be able to run with the likes of Louisville, UConn, Syracuse and Notre Dame, but expect to see a very good defensive team, with sound fundamentals and scoring balance that will scrap out tough wins with toughness and intensity.

Villanova 2008-2009 Season Preview - Part 2

Beastly Big East! (11/11)

In most other years, this Villanova team with every major contributor coming back from a Sweet 16 run, would be picked to contend for the Big East title. Not this year. Nobody even picked Nova to crack the top 3. The coaches picked them to finish 5th and most of the national media has the Cats 6th or 7th. But this is not a slight against Jay Wright or the Villanova program, it is simply a testament to how strong and deep the Big East is this year. Jim Calhoun and Jim Boeheim, guys who have been coaching in the Big East for 20+ years, called it the best league they've seen in their tenures. Rick Pitino, who has been coaching the college game for 33 years called it "the strongest league in the history of college basketball."

Why so strong? Why this particular year? Well for starters, the Big East sent a record 8 teams to the NCAA tournament last year and if you think that is impressive, wait till this March, cause the league's top 10 teams have nearly EVERYBODY back. An unusually high number of Big East players spurned the NBA draft last spring, so this year's superstars are largely last years superstars...only with another year of experience under their belts. 19 of the league's top 25 scorers, 12 of its top 15 rebounders, and its top 7 in assists, steals and blocks are all back this year. As a result the Big East placed 12 of its players on the pre-season list of 50 candidates for the Wooden Player of the Year Award - the most prestigious individual award in college basketball. Think about that for a second. There are 31 conferences in Division 1 college basketball, yet the national media is saying that 25% of the best players in the country are in 1 conference! And the preseason polls back it up, with the conference getting a record 7 teams in the initial Top 25 and 2 more teams receiving votes.

It starts with Louisville at the top, who lost a couple big men but simply reloaded with the nation's best freshman big man, Samardo Samuels, who should make them even better than last year. UConn is close behind with every major contributor back from a Top 15 team last year, plus McDonald's All-American point guard Kemba Walker. Notre Dame has two first-team All-conference players back in Luke Harangody and Kyle McAlarney and Pitt returns 4 of 5 starters from a team that won 26 games last year. Marquette, despite losing head coach Tom Crean, still has the senior guard trio of Jerel McNeal, Dominic James & Wesley Matthews, who form perhaps the best backcourt in the conference. Georgetown is the only team among last year's tournament teams with major losses (Hibbert, Wallace & Ewing), but they still return 3 starters and added perhaps the nation's 2nd best freshman big man (Greg Monroe) to take Hibbert's place. Similarly, West Virginia lost Joe Alexander but reloaded with McDonald's All-American wing Devin Ebanks to fit in with the rest of last year's supporting cast. Syracuse lost Donte Green to the NBA draft, but returns everyone else from a team that went 9-9 in the Big East last year AND returns Eric Devendorf and Andy Rautins from knee injuries that kept them out last year. Finally, Providence has a new coach to go with a senior laden team with plenty of talent that never quite got over the hump under previous coach Tim Welch. Given all this talent and experience back, every night will be a dogfight and teams will have to scrap for wins but the ones that survive will be battle-tested for the NCAA tournament.

Villanova 2008-2009 Season Preview - Part 1

The Villanova 2008-2009 Season Preview will be rolled out in 5 parts, one day at a time this week, leading up to the season opener against Albany on Friday.

Rankings Reaction (11/10)

Villanova is ranked # 23 in the AP poll and # 25 in the Coaches Poll. What's interesting about this is the dispersion of the team's ranking among voters. A few voters have Nova as high as # 13, while several others have the Cats un-ranked altogether. What creates this disparity is the fact that some see a Sweet 16 team with everybody coming back, while others remember that this team lost 13 games last year and barely made the tournament. Given the two varying perceptions, you end up somewhere in the middle, which is why the Cats are ranked in the high 20's. So which is the more accurate perception? Call me a homer, but I think the team is slightly underrated. Its not that I think that Nova is a Top 10 team, its just that I don't see two dozen better teams out there. After UNC at # 1, there is not much difference between # 2 and # 25. Do the coaches really expect us to believe that UConn and Pitt are 20 spots better than Nova this year when the Cats beat both of those teams last year AND have everybody back?! I can understand Kansas getting respect given that they just won a National Championship, but that won't last long as they just lost 5 of their top 6 players. But Arizona St, Wake Forest, and Florida? All are young talented teams with everybody back just like Nova. The only difference? Nova is the only one that has tournament experience, as the other 3 teams went to the NIT last season. All of that said, I kinda like the fact that Nova is underrated to begin the season - it gives the team an opportunity to rack up some early wins out of the spotlight before being thrown on the main stage December 9th against # 7 Texas at Madison Square Garden.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/rankings