Villanova Sweet 16 Preview

BRING ON THE DUKIES!
I didn't mention it last week so as not to jinx us, but one of the reasons I liked our bracket draw so much (in addition to an absence of size) was because I LOVE this matchup against Duke. Given the opponent, the national stage and whats on the line, it would easily be the biggest win of the Jay Wright era if the Cats can pull it off. Don't get me wrong - Duke is an excellent basketball team and with different personnel I wouldn't want to play them, but I happen to think that this Villanova team matches up with them almost perfectly. They are almost mirror images of each other - both teams have excellent perimeter-oriented players complemented by an undersized big guy that can step out and shoot the jumper. Duke probably has more raw talent in that they have 2 guys on the roster that could be NBA lottery picks in June (Gerald Henderson reminds me of Randy Foye and Kyle Singler reminds me of pre-injury Curtis Sumpter) - and those guys will be awfully tough to stop. Reggie Redding, Dwayne Anderson and Shane Clark will have their hands full defensively. The Blue Devils love to get out in transition, shoot threes and turn games into perimeter oriented shootouts, which is where they excel. Coach K basically rose to prominence in the mid-1980s by exploiting the 3-point shot - finding ways to get guys open and hammering teams with 3 after 3. This team is no different - they've easily got half a dozen guys, led by John Scheyer, who can knock down the open 3-point shot at any time - and in transition is when they are most dangerous. And with the exception of perhaps UNC, Duke may be the most difficult team in the country to beat at their own game.

So, you ask, why do I love this matchup so much? One intangible - TOUGHNESS. Coming from the Big East, Nova excels in this area and if our guys can set the tone early that this is gonna be a physical Big East style battle, I think it neutralizes any advantages that Duke has in terms of talent or coaching. That means Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher taking it right at them, driving to the hoop rather than settling for jumpers, Dwayne, Shane and Dante crashing the offensive boards, beating them to every loose ball and giving "clean but hard" fouls anytime one of their guys drives the lane. This "punch them in the mouth and see how they respond" approach worked beautifully against UCLA - they were completely stunned and never recovered. Check out these post-game quotes from the UCLA game:

1. Reggie Redding: "We pride ourselves on coming out and setting the tone and letting them know they're going to be in for a battle."

2. Dante Cunningham: "We learned something from that Kansas game last year. It's something we take pride in, not letting a team just come down the lane and start dunking the ball."

3. UCLA point guard Darren Collison: "I was talking to the officials because I thought they were fouling too hard," Collison said. "They were a physical team."

Now Duke is a far better team than UCLA so they probably won't wilt as easily as the Bruins did, but what most people aren't talking about this week is that the Dukies are a little bit soft. They cover it up with plenty of talent and 3-point shooting, but the truth is that they play a finesse type of game with lots of running and shooting, but very little challenging the rim, battling on the boards or hardnosed D. Sure, they have the sons of former NBA players (Gerald Henderson, Nolan Smith) and offensively prowessed kids who grew up in the suburbs (Scheyer, Singler, Paulus), but if this turns into a scrappy Big East style streetfight where defense, toughness and hustle are paramount, I'd rather have inner city guys like Reggie Redding, Shane Clark and Corey Fisher on my side. All of that said, the toughness factor merely evens the playing field in this game. It won't be enough to overcome turnovers, poor decisions on offense and leaving Duke open for 3. All of that has to be there too in addition to toughness for us to win this thing, but as far as Sweet 16 matchups go I like our chances.