The "Don't Panic" Button

This is the annual mid-January Villanova basketball "don't panic" post. Everyone seems to be convinced something is wrong with this team because they are under .500 in the Big East and they don't have that marquee win yet that is so critical for NCAA tournament resumes. Well I'm here to tell you that you can relax...at least a little. It is true that we don't have a win over a ranked team yet and we're definitely gonna need a couple of those at some point, but it is clear to me that this is an NCAA tournament team. All 4 losses have come to Top 10 teams and 3 of them have been on the road. Against the best of those four teams (UCONN and Louisville, who will each be Top 5 by season's end), we have certainly shown at the very least that we can hang with them and probably should've beaten one or both of them. In one of them we lost by one point after uncharacteristically missing 7 of our last 8 free throws and in the other we kept it close despite playing with our best player in foul trouble for 2/3 of the game. All that means is that we are not a Top 10 team...but I think it also shows that we are right there in that next tier. So you can sit there and complain about the missed opportunities or you can look at the schedule and see that we have at least 6 more games against ranked teams (4 of them at home) and if they keep playing at this level, we will win some of them. They haven't gone our way yet, but hang around in enough close games with veteran players like ours and you will win your share.

Another reason to be optimistic is because we've been here before. Check out the Big East records of Jay Wright's teams over the last 4 seasons (NCAA tournament each year). They are broken down by first half of the Big East season and then the second half.

Big East 2005: 4-4, 7-1
Big East 2006: 7-1, 7-1
Big East 2007: 3-5, 6-2
Big East 2008: 3-6, 6-3

Notice a trend there? Jay has a history of getting his team to peak late in the season. I have a hunch that he specifically coaches in a way that is conducive to his team playing their best basketball when it counts most. What do I mean by that? I personally think he does a lot of teaching and experimenting with lineups early in the season, which may cost the team a few wins early but it ultimately makes them better later. Not that he doesn't try to win every game, but I think he sees things in more of a season-long big picture view than most fans, so its ok in his mind if we lose a couple early as long as the team is playing the way he wants, cause he knows that when it all clicks they will be better for it later on. Pure hypothetical, but for example if Jay doesn't bench Malcolm Grant and focus on team defense last year maybe we win a few more regular season games and earn a 9 seed instead of a 12 seed...but I bet you we don't go to the Sweet 16 without that team defense that they struggled to adopt last January.

Its interesting, cause Rick Pitino gets criticized every year for losing a few games early in the season, but his teams magically seem to turn it on in February and March (they seem to have turned it around earlier this year). Check out a couple of these quotes from after the Louisville game:

1. Jay Wright's initial reaction to the Louisville loss:
"Right now this game kills you," Wright said. "We'll wake up tomorrow, watch the tape and we'll feel good about ourselves. If all the games are like this I'll be happy as long as we get our share."

2. Pitino commenting on criticism for 3 early losses to unranked teams:
"We do so many things that we're never very good early," Pitino said. "We have three different presses. I think I try to use every set Hubie Brown ever taught me. There's too much early on, and we're not quite as good. It's really hard. And then we get a little more and a little more and we can stop thinking and start playing."

3. Jay Wright responding to Pitino's comment above:
"That's what makes Rick such a great coach. He's not coaching to win games in November and December. He's making his points, teaching what he needs to teach and taking the losses early so his team can be the best team it can be in March."

Now Jay is praising Pitino here, but if you read between the lines I think he admires Pitino's style because its also his style, he just can't say that without it sounding like an excuse for the loss. But the choice of the phrase "taking the losses early so his team can be the best team it can be in March" speaks volumes to me about Jay Wright's philosophy and mindset. So while I am somewhat concerned about the lack of big wins so far, I can sleep well tonight knowing that this team is in the hands of a guy who knows what he's doing. And he's got 4 years of late-season surges to back it up. Maybe we're not a 4 or 5 seed in March, but I truly believe this team finds a way to get into the tournament and is as dangerous as anyone when it gets there.