WHO ARE THE NEWCOMERS?
Freshmen
This freshman class is the most highly-touted recruiting class of Jay Wright's career. Better than the Fisher, Stokes, Grant class, better than the Reynolds, Redding, Pena, Drummond class and even arguably better than the Foye, Ray, Sumpter, Fraser class. Its no guarantee that they will have better careers than the other guys I mentioned but these guys were the best of the best in high school basketball.
Maalik Wayns - 6'0" McDonald's All-American point guard from Roman Catholic in Philly. He is a Kyle Lowry clone - same quickness, passing ability, ball-hawking defense - plus he is a better shooter than Kyle was. Now the thing that ultimately set Kyle apart was his gritty toughness, hustle and the "I don't care how big you are, I'm taking it to the rim right over you" attitude, which is something that Wayns can hopefully develop under Jay. Regardless, he will push Reynolds and Fisher for minutes and should provide a spark of energy off the bench.
Dominic Cheek - a 6'6" shooting guard from St. Anthony's in NJ and another McDonald's All-American. This kid chose Nova over Kansas, UNC, Memphis and Pitt, which should be all you need to tell you he's got a lot of talent. His build and his game are a lot like that of former Davidson star Stephen Curry. Granted, he is not on Curry's level yet, but he is wiry, very quick and has a great 3-point stroke just like Curry. Plus he's about 3 inches taller than Curry and he defends well which should earn him some playing time off the bench.
Mouphtaou Yarou - 6'10" Center (probably should've been a McDonald's AA). "Mouph" is the best front-court player Jay Wright has signed since Jason Fraser. He is big, strong and should be a force defensively and on the boards right away. He doesn't need to be a go-to scorer on this team, but if he develops into a consistent offensive threat in the paint this team's potential is limitless. Despite all the talented guards and upperclassmen, Mouph will likely be inserted into the starting lineup from day one as his presence in the paint completely changes opponents' game plans.
Isaiah Armwood - 6'8" forward and another Top 50 recruit. Armwood is a Curtis Sumpter clone - very similar size and athleticism. Like Sumpter, who didn't really take off offensively until he developed a 3-point shot in his sophomore year, Armwood will have to develop his perimeter game to be a star but the potential is there. Given the talent around him, he probably won't play a ton this year, but could provide valuable minutes in the frontcourt in the event of foul trouble.
Other
Taylor King - the 6'7" sophomore transfer from Duke had games with 27, 20 and 18 points as a freshman, before falling out of favor with Coach K and deciding to transfer. The kid was a McDonald's All-American in high school, is a decent rebounder and he may be the best shooter on this team. There is a youtube video out there where King and Corey Stokes are going head to head in a game of horse and they nail so many effortless NBA-range 3-pointers that they eventually have to step back near half court before somebody starts missing. So there is no question the kid can provide an offensive spark with his shooting. In fact, he probably would start at small forward for most programs, but on a team that has an abundance of talented perimeter players, he will have to prove that he can play both forward positions to earn his playing time. This will be an adjustment because he has great size and shooting ability for a guard but not the lateral quickness to defend opposing guards...and by the same token, he doesn't really have enough size to be effective in the paint or to defend opposing big men. But given our depth in the backcourt and lack of depth in the frontcourt, the staff is working with him to play bigger. He still has the green light to shoot 3s, but he also needs to be a threat to hit intermediate foul line and base line jumpers to spread the defense. And you should all know by now that Jay will award him playing time in direct correlation with how well he defends and rebounds.
Maurice Sutton - 6'11" redshirt freshman. Sutton came in last year, but was rail thin so he redshirted and focused on adding some bulk while practicing with the team. He is somewhat raw offensively but brings a lot of energy and has a knack for blocking shots and rebounding. He'd be a great big man to bring off the bench in spurts on most teams, but given the competition for playing time he probably won't be in Jay's primary rotation this year, other than battling Armwood for the right to fill in when we are in foul trouble. Eventually, he could develop into a Brooks Sales caliber player down the road.
WHAT IS THE DEAL WITH YAROU'S AGE?
A little background...Mouph is from the west African nation of Benin. He came to the U.S. in late 2007 to play basketball, was quickly discovered by many national programs, shot up the recruiting rankings as it became clear he was one of the best highschool big men in the country and eventually chose to play at Nova. Last week an online article on TheSportingNews.com reported that there is an International Basketball Federation (FIBA) website that lists Mouph as a participant in a tournament in Africa in 2007, with his age listed as 23. That would make him 25 now. The bigger issue is that the NCAA has a rule stating that any participation in "organized basketball activity" after age 21 impacts a players eligibility on a year-for-year basis. So if Mouph was 23 in this 2007 tournament (an organized basketball activity), that would eat up one year of eligibility. His U.S. Highschool season in 2008 would eat up another and his U.S. highschool season in 2009 would eat up a third. If it was found that he had participated in any events in 2006 (at age 22), his eligibility could be completely expired. The Sporting News writer pointed this out and then essentially implied that Mouph, Jay Wright and Villanova were trying to cover this up.
My opinion....This was total bush league unprofessional reporting designed just to get a headline. The Sporting News ran with a story based on information on an international website from 2 years ago and then declined to call anybody at Villanova, the NCAA, Mouph's highschool, or FIBA for comment or to follow-up and make sure this website was accurate. That is their standard reporting procedure, really? You will notice that ESPN, Sports Illustrated, CBS Sports, Fox Sports or any of the other major sports reporting services declined to report this story initially...probably because they were concerned with the credibility of the source. Once it was brought to Villanova's attention, they decided to re-submit Mouph's passport, naturalization documents and birth certificate to the NCAA for approval (which had already been done once per standard procedure for all incoming freshman athletes) and Mouph was once again given approval by the NCAA Eligibility Clearinghouse. At that point, most of the other news services picked up the fact that Mouph's age had been questioned and that he had since been cleared to play. Now don't get me wrong, I'm not saying its impossible that Mouph and his family could have doctored his documents so that he could play college basketball - west Africa probably doesn't have the best reputation for document control mechanisms - but #1) the NCAA takes this stuff very seriously (they spent months investigating the Derrick Rose eligibility issue last year and routinely suspend foreign players when eligibility issues arise), yet despite this report they re-cleared Mouph for eligibility in less than 2 days...so there must have been some compelling evidence that he is really 19 years old as he claims. And #2) do you really think Jay Wright would allow Mouph to play in games if he thought there was any chance that he was ineligible and could cause Nova to retro-actively forfeit every game in which Mouph played? Especially on a team that has Final Four aspirations with or without Mouph? I don't think Jay is that dumb.
WHAT KIND OF TEAM DO WE MATCH UP BEST AGAINST? WORST?
Our strength is certainly in the backcourt. In fact, I'd put our collection of guards up against any other backcourt in the country. There may be other teams with one or two players who are individually better than our best players, but collectively nobody else has the talent, experience and depth of our backcourt. Reynolds and Fisher are all-conference caliber guards, Stokes is a sharp-shooter and Redding is one of the best perimeter defenders in college basketball - and those guys all have Final Four experience. Then you throw in Wayns and Cheek off the bench and there is very little drop-off in the event of injury, fatigue or foul trouble. In fact, Wayns and Cheek would start as freshmen most years (and at most other major programs), but given the talent and experience in front of them they have the luxury of coming off the bench and learning the college game in pressure-free roles. So whenever we play guard-oriented teams, we should have an advantage.
However, that means that the front-court is our weak spot, as usual. Dante Cunningham did an incredible job last year of turning that weakness into an advantage with his ability to be an offensive threat. He will be replaced by committee, as we don't have another Dante waiting in the wings. I am not worried about the scoring because with our explosive backcourt, Pena and Yarou just need to be enough of a threat in the paint to keep teams honest. But Dante's defense, leadership and athleticism were really underrated last year and I fear we will have trouble replacing that. Pena and Yarou both have the size, strength and athleticism to clean up the boards, but each has a bit of that "bull in a china shop" mentality that could lead to foul trouble. And if that happens, King, Sutton and Armwood are a bit undersized to defend true post players. As a result, talented big men like Greg Monroe at Georgetown, Samardo Samuels at Louisville, Patrick Patterson at Kentucky and Cole Aldrich at Kansas may be able to exploit those weaknesses. It will be up to Jay Wright to find a way to keep our big guys out of foul trouble in those games, without giving them so much help from the guards that we leave opponents wide open from beyond the arc.
WHO IS OUR MOST IMPORTANT PLAYER?
For the same reasons I mentioned above, it has to be Pena and Yarou. Pena has the size, talent and athleticism to be a productive big man in the Big East - he finally is the main man in the paint for this team - he just has to stay out of foul trouble and put it all together. Same thing with Yarou - he is supposed to be one of the best freshmen big men in the country - it will just be a matter of how quickly he adapts to the college game. Given our backcourt, we don't need them to be superstars - but we do need them to be consistent so that teams can't just load up their D on the perimeter. If the two of them can consistently combine for 18-20 points and 14-15 rebounds a game, this team has a legit shot to get back to the Final Four. But if we are relying on our guards to carry us in every game, it will catch up with us at some point in March when the perimeter shots stop falling.
WHAT ARE THE EXPECTATIONS FOR THIS YEAR?
Well we have 5 key guys coming back from a Final Four appearance, our freshman make up one of the top recruiting classes on the country and we're ranked #5 in the country to start the season...so in a nutshell, expectations are pretty high. That said, the impact of losing Dante Cunningham, Dwayne Anderson and Shane Clark to graduation cannot be overstated. A lot of people seem to think we'll just plug in Yarou for Cunningham, Cheek for Anderson and King for Clark and we won't miss a beat, but that is not the case. First of all, no one player is going to replace all the things that Dante did for us last year leadership-wise, scoring, setting screens for Scottie, on the boards and quarterbacking the defensive rotations. And while Cheek and King may have more raw talent than Anderson and Clark, experience is very underrated in Jay Wright's system, especially given that Jay is a stickler for his particular brand of disciplined defense. As we have seen in the past, most recently with Fisher, Stokes and Grant, it tends to take freshmen a while to adjust to Jay's defense. It only takes one guy out of position on defense to undermine Jay's team defensive philosophy and leave teams with open shots. And Jay has shown little patience for sticking with young guys that make defensive mistakes, regardless of their offensive talent. Not until those defensive rotations become second nature do the young guys stop thinking about making mistakes and "just play", which is when the team really tends to take off. But historically, when Jay has young guys playing key roles we tend to struggle early in the Big East schedule before pulling it together later in the season (which is why I typically write a "don't panic" post in mid-January)
Accordingly, Jay Wright is trying to temper expectations. After the season-opening FDU win, in which we were only up one at the half, Jay said, "All this hype, all this hype, and I've been waiting for this moment so everyone could see it," Wright said. "When everyone sees how young we are, how inexperienced we are, I think it'll temper expectations a little bit. But I think we can be good. We've got a lot of work to do, but I think we can be a good team by the end of the year." Of course, what he doesn't say there is that he has the luxury of having 5 upperclassmen who played major roles on a Final Four team to help lead those young guys, which should hopefully speed up the learning curve. Bottom line: this team should be very good by February and March - good enough to challenge for the Big East Title and a 2 or 3 seed in the tournament - but they may have some bumps along the way early as they develop new leadership roles and mesh 6 new young guys into the rotation.
WHAT % CHANCE DO WE HAVE OF MAKING THE SWEET 16? FINAL 4?
With all that talent, it would be a major disappointment if this team were not at least a 4 seed in March, so they should be the favorite in any game leading up to the Sweet 16. So I'll say there's about a 60% chance that this team is a Sweet 16 team (leaving a little room to account for the fact that anything can happen in March). The Final Four is tricky though. The best teams don't always get there cause there its a such a fine line between Elite Eight teams and Final Four teams. (Ex. Was last year's team really that much better than the Randy Foye-led Elite Eight team?). That said, if our talent can get us to the Sweet 16, I think our experience gives us as good a shot as anyone to reach the Final Four. And realistically, barring any type of George Mason-like fluke, there are probably about 15 teams talented enough to have a legitimate shot to reach the Final Four. So just doing the math, that gives us about a 25-30% chance to get back there, which is about as high as it gets.
WHEN'S THE FIRST BIG GAME?
We are already 2-0 after beating FDU and Penn by an average of 31 points, but the first real competition for this team begins Thursday afternoon against George Mason in the first round of the Puerto Rico Tip-Off Challenge. And win or lose, Nova will have a matchup on Friday against a ranked team. If we beat George Mason, we'll play the winner of #20 Georgia Tech vs. #22 Dayton. If we lose, we play the loser of that same game. Win Thursday and Friday and we will play in the Championship on Sunday night against either Indiana, Kansas St, Mississippi or Boston University. After the tournament we have #25 Maryland on December 6th.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Scottie Reynolds declares for NBA draft
Scottie Reynolds announced his intention to declare for the NBA draft last night. He will not hire an agent so as to keep open the possibility of returning to Villanova for his senior year. This is not a surprise (I will explain why below) and has been rumored for several weeks.
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/colleges/villanova/20090422_Villanova_s_Reynolds_enters_NBA_draft__for_now.html
How this process works
NBA rules reward players selected in the first round of the draft (30 players) with a guaranteed 3-year contract. The guarantee basically means that the player is guaranteed to be paid for all 3 years of his contract regardless of injuries or performance. Guys selected after the 1st round receive no such guarantee and face much lesser chances of making an NBA roster because teams aren’t invested in them. Therefore, the “first round guarantee” has long been a cutoff for underclassmen considering the draft and then for those that decide to “test the waters” (declaring for the draft without hiring an agent to retain college eligibility). NBA teams hold workouts and then give feedback, which contributes to the players’ final decisions.
NCAA Rules dictate that college players may declare for the draft without an agent ONCE in their college careers without impacting their college athletic eligibility. Essentially they get one “do-over” in the draft process – as long as they don’t hire an agent and they withdraw their name 10 days prior to the draft. So given this one-time opportunity to “test the waters”, it certainly makes sense for someone like Scottie to do it. In fact, I don’t know why all juniors with realistic NBA aspirations don’t test the waters – there is literally nothing to lose. You get to go work out for NBA teams and get critiqued by some of the best experts in the sport – if you can impress a team enough to be a 1st round pick, you just set yourself up financially for the rest of your life (we are talking millions of dollars here). If you get negative feedback, at least you can head back to college knowing what you need to work on and you have that experience to draw from when you come back for next year’s draft workouts.
Scottie's’ situation
In addition to the fact that it makes sense for juniors to test the waters, in Scottie’s case, his stock will never be higher than it is right now. He is coming off tons of exposure from a Final Four run and a game-winning buzzer beater that everyone in the sport saw over and over again. Even if he has every intention of coming back to Villanova next year, it would be dumb not to test the waters now to get additional exposure with NBA teams, get expert advice on his game and get the experience for next year. That is why I am not surprised at this decision. And if he does want to play in the NBA right now and gets that first-round guaranteed contract, you can’t really blame him. That said, right now he is not projected as a first round pick and unless he has some amazing workouts, I expect to see him in a Villanova uniform next year.
Finally, for all of you who are upset by Scottie’s decision, I have 3 comments:
1. Not only does Scottie have Jay Wright’s full support, but the word is that as much as Jay wants Scottie back to lead next year’s team, he actually encouraged him to explore this option. Most people forget that Randy Foye did this too after his junior year and it paid huge dividends both in his senior year performance and in making him a 1st round pick a year later.
2. I find it perplexing that people are angry at Scottie for this. First of all, how many of you would have turned down the opportunity to earn millions of dollars after your junior year of college? Second, Scottie may not be the best player in recent Villanova history but he is probably the most important. Landing him at the last minute in the spring of 2006 was a huge blessing for this program. Without him we were likely looking at 2 straight years of the NIT after the departures of Foye, Ray and Lowry and probably would have had trouble attracting top recruits. Instead, we have a streak of 5 straight NCAA tournaments including 4 Sweet 16s, a Final Four and the top recruiting class in the country as a result. Scottie is directly responsible for a large part of that success, so whatever he decides, we as fans should be grateful for his major contributions to the program.
3. No matter what Scottie ultimately decides, the program is in great shape. With Scottie back, we are a Top 10 team next year with a great senior leader. Without him, we are a young Top 25 team with multiple scoring options led by the Coreys and an extremely talented freshman class.
http://www.philly.com/philly/
How this process works
NBA rules reward players selected in the first round of the draft (30 players) with a guaranteed 3-year contract. The guarantee basically means that the player is guaranteed to be paid for all 3 years of his contract regardless of injuries or performance. Guys selected after the 1st round receive no such guarantee and face much lesser chances of making an NBA roster because teams aren’t invested in them. Therefore, the “first round guarantee” has long been a cutoff for underclassmen considering the draft and then for those that decide to “test the waters” (declaring for the draft without hiring an agent to retain college eligibility). NBA teams hold workouts and then give feedback, which contributes to the players’ final decisions.
NCAA Rules dictate that college players may declare for the draft without an agent ONCE in their college careers without impacting their college athletic eligibility. Essentially they get one “do-over” in the draft process – as long as they don’t hire an agent and they withdraw their name 10 days prior to the draft. So given this one-time opportunity to “test the waters”, it certainly makes sense for someone like Scottie to do it. In fact, I don’t know why all juniors with realistic NBA aspirations don’t test the waters – there is literally nothing to lose. You get to go work out for NBA teams and get critiqued by some of the best experts in the sport – if you can impress a team enough to be a 1st round pick, you just set yourself up financially for the rest of your life (we are talking millions of dollars here). If you get negative feedback, at least you can head back to college knowing what you need to work on and you have that experience to draw from when you come back for next year’s draft workouts.
Scottie's’ situation
In addition to the fact that it makes sense for juniors to test the waters, in Scottie’s case, his stock will never be higher than it is right now. He is coming off tons of exposure from a Final Four run and a game-winning buzzer beater that everyone in the sport saw over and over again. Even if he has every intention of coming back to Villanova next year, it would be dumb not to test the waters now to get additional exposure with NBA teams, get expert advice on his game and get the experience for next year. That is why I am not surprised at this decision. And if he does want to play in the NBA right now and gets that first-round guaranteed contract, you can’t really blame him. That said, right now he is not projected as a first round pick and unless he has some amazing workouts, I expect to see him in a Villanova uniform next year.
Finally, for all of you who are upset by Scottie’s decision, I have 3 comments:
1. Not only does Scottie have Jay Wright’s full support, but the word is that as much as Jay wants Scottie back to lead next year’s team, he actually encouraged him to explore this option. Most people forget that Randy Foye did this too after his junior year and it paid huge dividends both in his senior year performance and in making him a 1st round pick a year later.
2. I find it perplexing that people are angry at Scottie for this. First of all, how many of you would have turned down the opportunity to earn millions of dollars after your junior year of college? Second, Scottie may not be the best player in recent Villanova history but he is probably the most important. Landing him at the last minute in the spring of 2006 was a huge blessing for this program. Without him we were likely looking at 2 straight years of the NIT after the departures of Foye, Ray and Lowry and probably would have had trouble attracting top recruits. Instead, we have a streak of 5 straight NCAA tournaments including 4 Sweet 16s, a Final Four and the top recruiting class in the country as a result. Scottie is directly responsible for a large part of that success, so whatever he decides, we as fans should be grateful for his major contributions to the program.
3. No matter what Scottie ultimately decides, the program is in great shape. With Scottie back, we are a Top 10 team next year with a great senior leader. Without him, we are a young Top 25 team with multiple scoring options led by the Coreys and an extremely talented freshman class.
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Villanova Sweet 16 Preview
BRING ON THE DUKIES!
I didn't mention it last week so as not to jinx us, but one of the reasons I liked our bracket draw so much (in addition to an absence of size) was because I LOVE this matchup against Duke. Given the opponent, the national stage and whats on the line, it would easily be the biggest win of the Jay Wright era if the Cats can pull it off. Don't get me wrong - Duke is an excellent basketball team and with different personnel I wouldn't want to play them, but I happen to think that this Villanova team matches up with them almost perfectly. They are almost mirror images of each other - both teams have excellent perimeter-oriented players complemented by an undersized big guy that can step out and shoot the jumper. Duke probably has more raw talent in that they have 2 guys on the roster that could be NBA lottery picks in June (Gerald Henderson reminds me of Randy Foye and Kyle Singler reminds me of pre-injury Curtis Sumpter) - and those guys will be awfully tough to stop. Reggie Redding, Dwayne Anderson and Shane Clark will have their hands full defensively. The Blue Devils love to get out in transition, shoot threes and turn games into perimeter oriented shootouts, which is where they excel. Coach K basically rose to prominence in the mid-1980s by exploiting the 3-point shot - finding ways to get guys open and hammering teams with 3 after 3. This team is no different - they've easily got half a dozen guys, led by John Scheyer, who can knock down the open 3-point shot at any time - and in transition is when they are most dangerous. And with the exception of perhaps UNC, Duke may be the most difficult team in the country to beat at their own game.
So, you ask, why do I love this matchup so much? One intangible - TOUGHNESS. Coming from the Big East, Nova excels in this area and if our guys can set the tone early that this is gonna be a physical Big East style battle, I think it neutralizes any advantages that Duke has in terms of talent or coaching. That means Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher taking it right at them, driving to the hoop rather than settling for jumpers, Dwayne, Shane and Dante crashing the offensive boards, beating them to every loose ball and giving "clean but hard" fouls anytime one of their guys drives the lane. This "punch them in the mouth and see how they respond" approach worked beautifully against UCLA - they were completely stunned and never recovered. Check out these post-game quotes from the UCLA game:
1. Reggie Redding: "We pride ourselves on coming out and setting the tone and letting them know they're going to be in for a battle."
2. Dante Cunningham: "We learned something from that Kansas game last year. It's something we take pride in, not letting a team just come down the lane and start dunking the ball."
3. UCLA point guard Darren Collison: "I was talking to the officials because I thought they were fouling too hard," Collison said. "They were a physical team."
Now Duke is a far better team than UCLA so they probably won't wilt as easily as the Bruins did, but what most people aren't talking about this week is that the Dukies are a little bit soft. They cover it up with plenty of talent and 3-point shooting, but the truth is that they play a finesse type of game with lots of running and shooting, but very little challenging the rim, battling on the boards or hardnosed D. Sure, they have the sons of former NBA players (Gerald Henderson, Nolan Smith) and offensively prowessed kids who grew up in the suburbs (Scheyer, Singler, Paulus), but if this turns into a scrappy Big East style streetfight where defense, toughness and hustle are paramount, I'd rather have inner city guys like Reggie Redding, Shane Clark and Corey Fisher on my side. All of that said, the toughness factor merely evens the playing field in this game. It won't be enough to overcome turnovers, poor decisions on offense and leaving Duke open for 3. All of that has to be there too in addition to toughness for us to win this thing, but as far as Sweet 16 matchups go I like our chances.
I didn't mention it last week so as not to jinx us, but one of the reasons I liked our bracket draw so much (in addition to an absence of size) was because I LOVE this matchup against Duke. Given the opponent, the national stage and whats on the line, it would easily be the biggest win of the Jay Wright era if the Cats can pull it off. Don't get me wrong - Duke is an excellent basketball team and with different personnel I wouldn't want to play them, but I happen to think that this Villanova team matches up with them almost perfectly. They are almost mirror images of each other - both teams have excellent perimeter-oriented players complemented by an undersized big guy that can step out and shoot the jumper. Duke probably has more raw talent in that they have 2 guys on the roster that could be NBA lottery picks in June (Gerald Henderson reminds me of Randy Foye and Kyle Singler reminds me of pre-injury Curtis Sumpter) - and those guys will be awfully tough to stop. Reggie Redding, Dwayne Anderson and Shane Clark will have their hands full defensively. The Blue Devils love to get out in transition, shoot threes and turn games into perimeter oriented shootouts, which is where they excel. Coach K basically rose to prominence in the mid-1980s by exploiting the 3-point shot - finding ways to get guys open and hammering teams with 3 after 3. This team is no different - they've easily got half a dozen guys, led by John Scheyer, who can knock down the open 3-point shot at any time - and in transition is when they are most dangerous. And with the exception of perhaps UNC, Duke may be the most difficult team in the country to beat at their own game.
So, you ask, why do I love this matchup so much? One intangible - TOUGHNESS. Coming from the Big East, Nova excels in this area and if our guys can set the tone early that this is gonna be a physical Big East style battle, I think it neutralizes any advantages that Duke has in terms of talent or coaching. That means Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher taking it right at them, driving to the hoop rather than settling for jumpers, Dwayne, Shane and Dante crashing the offensive boards, beating them to every loose ball and giving "clean but hard" fouls anytime one of their guys drives the lane. This "punch them in the mouth and see how they respond" approach worked beautifully against UCLA - they were completely stunned and never recovered. Check out these post-game quotes from the UCLA game:
1. Reggie Redding: "We pride ourselves on coming out and setting the tone and letting them know they're going to be in for a battle."
2. Dante Cunningham: "We learned something from that Kansas game last year. It's something we take pride in, not letting a team just come down the lane and start dunking the ball."
3. UCLA point guard Darren Collison: "I was talking to the officials because I thought they were fouling too hard," Collison said. "They were a physical team."
Now Duke is a far better team than UCLA so they probably won't wilt as easily as the Bruins did, but what most people aren't talking about this week is that the Dukies are a little bit soft. They cover it up with plenty of talent and 3-point shooting, but the truth is that they play a finesse type of game with lots of running and shooting, but very little challenging the rim, battling on the boards or hardnosed D. Sure, they have the sons of former NBA players (Gerald Henderson, Nolan Smith) and offensively prowessed kids who grew up in the suburbs (Scheyer, Singler, Paulus), but if this turns into a scrappy Big East style streetfight where defense, toughness and hustle are paramount, I'd rather have inner city guys like Reggie Redding, Shane Clark and Corey Fisher on my side. All of that said, the toughness factor merely evens the playing field in this game. It won't be enough to overcome turnovers, poor decisions on offense and leaving Duke open for 3. All of that has to be there too in addition to toughness for us to win this thing, but as far as Sweet 16 matchups go I like our chances.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Villanova March Madness Preview
Bracket Thoughts
I love the #3 seed (mainly cause it keeps us as far away from the #1's as possible) and the fact that we are playing in Philly, but make no mistake - this will be no cakewalk. Every team in our pod this weekend is a tough, experienced, defensive-minded team that knows how to win close games. On the bright side, we didn't draw anybody with a superior size advantage, which should help keep Cunningham out of foul trouble (the # 1 key to our success).
AMERICAN
American starts 5 seniors, has quality guards and NCAA experience from last year when they were tied with #2 seed Tennessee with five minutes to play. Did I mention they are one of the top 3-point shooting % teams in the tournament and held teams to a mere 58 points per game this season? Pretty much a perfect recipe to be a Cinderella. That said, they don't come close to our talent level and their starting backcourt contains two guys that are about 5'8" and 5'10", so they will have to play near-perfect basketball to beat us. But if you don't think thats possible, then you don't know March Madness. Jay needs to set the defensive tone early and then let our guys do their thing on offense - I think we have too much talent and size for them to keep us from scoring. But if we let them knock down open 3s and hang around, the pressure will build on us.
The Anti-jinx disclaimer:
IF we are lucky enough to get by American, our 2nd round opponent will either be UCLA or VCU.
UCLA
UCLA is an underrated 6-seed. They aren't as good as last year when they were a 1 seed but they still probably should've been a 4 or a 5 seed. They have 3 very good seniors in Collison, Shipp and Aboya who have played in the last 3 Final Fours, so they have more NCAA tournament experience than any team in the entire field. They like to slow it down, play tough D and methodically pick you apart - as a result they lead the nation in field goal percentage. Darren Collison is one of the best perimeter defenders in the country and the thought of him harrassing Scottie Reynolds all game does not sound fun. (If you want to know what excellent perimeter D can do to Scottie, take a look at his 6.5 ppg average in two games against Louisville this year). At the same time they don't have anybody inside who can stay with Cunningham or back him down and get him into foul trouble. They also will struggle to score inside if the deep shots aren't falling. They are flawed for sure, but they have all the experience in the world and Howland is a great coach, so overall this matchup scares me. Thank god for the homecourt advantage, which pretty much makes this one a tossup.
VCU
Remember the name Eric Maynor - he could be this year's Stephen Curry. Yes, he's that good. As a sophomore, he led VCU to a first round upset over Duke. Now he's a senior averaging 22 points per game and is likely an NBA 1st round pick. As a result, VCU seems to be the trendy first round upset pick, with lots of people taking them to knock off UCLA. Without taking anything away from Scottie, if we play VCU, Maynor will be the best guard on the floor. They also have a 6'10" shot blocker and rebounder in Larry Sanders who could potentially give Dante some trouble. So they match up well against our star players. However, they don't have nearly as much quality depth as our team. To win a game like this, it would likely come down to guys like Anderson, Redding, Stokes and Fisher winning their individual matchups against VCU's role players. In that case, I like our chances. But you saw what Stephen Curry single-handedly did to the bracket last year, so anything is possible given Maynor's talent level.
I love the #3 seed (mainly cause it keeps us as far away from the #1's as possible) and the fact that we are playing in Philly, but make no mistake - this will be no cakewalk. Every team in our pod this weekend is a tough, experienced, defensive-minded team that knows how to win close games. On the bright side, we didn't draw anybody with a superior size advantage, which should help keep Cunningham out of foul trouble (the # 1 key to our success).
AMERICAN
American starts 5 seniors, has quality guards and NCAA experience from last year when they were tied with #2 seed Tennessee with five minutes to play. Did I mention they are one of the top 3-point shooting % teams in the tournament and held teams to a mere 58 points per game this season? Pretty much a perfect recipe to be a Cinderella. That said, they don't come close to our talent level and their starting backcourt contains two guys that are about 5'8" and 5'10", so they will have to play near-perfect basketball to beat us. But if you don't think thats possible, then you don't know March Madness. Jay needs to set the defensive tone early and then let our guys do their thing on offense - I think we have too much talent and size for them to keep us from scoring. But if we let them knock down open 3s and hang around, the pressure will build on us.
The Anti-jinx disclaimer:
IF we are lucky enough to get by American, our 2nd round opponent will either be UCLA or VCU.
UCLA
UCLA is an underrated 6-seed. They aren't as good as last year when they were a 1 seed but they still probably should've been a 4 or a 5 seed. They have 3 very good seniors in Collison, Shipp and Aboya who have played in the last 3 Final Fours, so they have more NCAA tournament experience than any team in the entire field. They like to slow it down, play tough D and methodically pick you apart - as a result they lead the nation in field goal percentage. Darren Collison is one of the best perimeter defenders in the country and the thought of him harrassing Scottie Reynolds all game does not sound fun. (If you want to know what excellent perimeter D can do to Scottie, take a look at his 6.5 ppg average in two games against Louisville this year). At the same time they don't have anybody inside who can stay with Cunningham or back him down and get him into foul trouble. They also will struggle to score inside if the deep shots aren't falling. They are flawed for sure, but they have all the experience in the world and Howland is a great coach, so overall this matchup scares me. Thank god for the homecourt advantage, which pretty much makes this one a tossup.
VCU
Remember the name Eric Maynor - he could be this year's Stephen Curry. Yes, he's that good. As a sophomore, he led VCU to a first round upset over Duke. Now he's a senior averaging 22 points per game and is likely an NBA 1st round pick. As a result, VCU seems to be the trendy first round upset pick, with lots of people taking them to knock off UCLA. Without taking anything away from Scottie, if we play VCU, Maynor will be the best guard on the floor. They also have a 6'10" shot blocker and rebounder in Larry Sanders who could potentially give Dante some trouble. So they match up well against our star players. However, they don't have nearly as much quality depth as our team. To win a game like this, it would likely come down to guys like Anderson, Redding, Stokes and Fisher winning their individual matchups against VCU's role players. In that case, I like our chances. But you saw what Stephen Curry single-handedly did to the bracket last year, so anything is possible given Maynor's talent level.
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
The "Don't Panic" Button
This is the annual mid-January Villanova basketball "don't panic" post. Everyone seems to be convinced something is wrong with this team because they are under .500 in the Big East and they don't have that marquee win yet that is so critical for NCAA tournament resumes. Well I'm here to tell you that you can relax...at least a little. It is true that we don't have a win over a ranked team yet and we're definitely gonna need a couple of those at some point, but it is clear to me that this is an NCAA tournament team. All 4 losses have come to Top 10 teams and 3 of them have been on the road. Against the best of those four teams (UCONN and Louisville, who will each be Top 5 by season's end), we have certainly shown at the very least that we can hang with them and probably should've beaten one or both of them. In one of them we lost by one point after uncharacteristically missing 7 of our last 8 free throws and in the other we kept it close despite playing with our best player in foul trouble for 2/3 of the game. All that means is that we are not a Top 10 team...but I think it also shows that we are right there in that next tier. So you can sit there and complain about the missed opportunities or you can look at the schedule and see that we have at least 6 more games against ranked teams (4 of them at home) and if they keep playing at this level, we will win some of them. They haven't gone our way yet, but hang around in enough close games with veteran players like ours and you will win your share.
Another reason to be optimistic is because we've been here before. Check out the Big East records of Jay Wright's teams over the last 4 seasons (NCAA tournament each year). They are broken down by first half of the Big East season and then the second half.
Big East 2005: 4-4, 7-1
Big East 2006: 7-1, 7-1
Big East 2007: 3-5, 6-2
Big East 2008: 3-6, 6-3
Notice a trend there? Jay has a history of getting his team to peak late in the season. I have a hunch that he specifically coaches in a way that is conducive to his team playing their best basketball when it counts most. What do I mean by that? I personally think he does a lot of teaching and experimenting with lineups early in the season, which may cost the team a few wins early but it ultimately makes them better later. Not that he doesn't try to win every game, but I think he sees things in more of a season-long big picture view than most fans, so its ok in his mind if we lose a couple early as long as the team is playing the way he wants, cause he knows that when it all clicks they will be better for it later on. Pure hypothetical, but for example if Jay doesn't bench Malcolm Grant and focus on team defense last year maybe we win a few more regular season games and earn a 9 seed instead of a 12 seed...but I bet you we don't go to the Sweet 16 without that team defense that they struggled to adopt last January.
Its interesting, cause Rick Pitino gets criticized every year for losing a few games early in the season, but his teams magically seem to turn it on in February and March (they seem to have turned it around earlier this year). Check out a couple of these quotes from after the Louisville game:
1. Jay Wright's initial reaction to the Louisville loss:
"Right now this game kills you," Wright said. "We'll wake up tomorrow, watch the tape and we'll feel good about ourselves. If all the games are like this I'll be happy as long as we get our share."
2. Pitino commenting on criticism for 3 early losses to unranked teams:
"We do so many things that we're never very good early," Pitino said. "We have three different presses. I think I try to use every set Hubie Brown ever taught me. There's too much early on, and we're not quite as good. It's really hard. And then we get a little more and a little more and we can stop thinking and start playing."
3. Jay Wright responding to Pitino's comment above:
"That's what makes Rick such a great coach. He's not coaching to win games in November and December. He's making his points, teaching what he needs to teach and taking the losses early so his team can be the best team it can be in March."
Now Jay is praising Pitino here, but if you read between the lines I think he admires Pitino's style because its also his style, he just can't say that without it sounding like an excuse for the loss. But the choice of the phrase "taking the losses early so his team can be the best team it can be in March" speaks volumes to me about Jay Wright's philosophy and mindset. So while I am somewhat concerned about the lack of big wins so far, I can sleep well tonight knowing that this team is in the hands of a guy who knows what he's doing. And he's got 4 years of late-season surges to back it up. Maybe we're not a 4 or 5 seed in March, but I truly believe this team finds a way to get into the tournament and is as dangerous as anyone when it gets there.
Another reason to be optimistic is because we've been here before. Check out the Big East records of Jay Wright's teams over the last 4 seasons (NCAA tournament each year). They are broken down by first half of the Big East season and then the second half.
Big East 2005: 4-4, 7-1
Big East 2006: 7-1, 7-1
Big East 2007: 3-5, 6-2
Big East 2008: 3-6, 6-3
Notice a trend there? Jay has a history of getting his team to peak late in the season. I have a hunch that he specifically coaches in a way that is conducive to his team playing their best basketball when it counts most. What do I mean by that? I personally think he does a lot of teaching and experimenting with lineups early in the season, which may cost the team a few wins early but it ultimately makes them better later. Not that he doesn't try to win every game, but I think he sees things in more of a season-long big picture view than most fans, so its ok in his mind if we lose a couple early as long as the team is playing the way he wants, cause he knows that when it all clicks they will be better for it later on. Pure hypothetical, but for example if Jay doesn't bench Malcolm Grant and focus on team defense last year maybe we win a few more regular season games and earn a 9 seed instead of a 12 seed...but I bet you we don't go to the Sweet 16 without that team defense that they struggled to adopt last January.
Its interesting, cause Rick Pitino gets criticized every year for losing a few games early in the season, but his teams magically seem to turn it on in February and March (they seem to have turned it around earlier this year). Check out a couple of these quotes from after the Louisville game:
1. Jay Wright's initial reaction to the Louisville loss:
"Right now this game kills you," Wright said. "We'll wake up tomorrow, watch the tape and we'll feel good about ourselves. If all the games are like this I'll be happy as long as we get our share."
2. Pitino commenting on criticism for 3 early losses to unranked teams:
"We do so many things that we're never very good early," Pitino said. "We have three different presses. I think I try to use every set Hubie Brown ever taught me. There's too much early on, and we're not quite as good. It's really hard. And then we get a little more and a little more and we can stop thinking and start playing."
3. Jay Wright responding to Pitino's comment above:
"That's what makes Rick such a great coach. He's not coaching to win games in November and December. He's making his points, teaching what he needs to teach and taking the losses early so his team can be the best team it can be in March."
Now Jay is praising Pitino here, but if you read between the lines I think he admires Pitino's style because its also his style, he just can't say that without it sounding like an excuse for the loss. But the choice of the phrase "taking the losses early so his team can be the best team it can be in March" speaks volumes to me about Jay Wright's philosophy and mindset. So while I am somewhat concerned about the lack of big wins so far, I can sleep well tonight knowing that this team is in the hands of a guy who knows what he's doing. And he's got 4 years of late-season surges to back it up. Maybe we're not a 4 or 5 seed in March, but I truly believe this team finds a way to get into the tournament and is as dangerous as anyone when it gets there.
Sunday, December 7, 2008
Early Season Observations
Believe it or not, the regular season is ¼ of the way complete so I thought I’d share some observations. Villanova is 8-0 and ranked #16 in the nation, but it is hard to get a read on what exactly that means cause the team’s strength of schedule to date is ranked 254th out of 343 Division I teams. The game against #8 Texas on Tuesday night at Madison Square Garden will be a huge test for this team and a good barometer for where the Cats stand on the national scale. Accordingly, Jay Wright stated the following last week:
“We want to get tested. If it was our fourth game, I don’t know if we’d be ready (but) we’re going to know where we are. We’re 8-0, and no one knows what that means. We’re (ranked) 17, but there could be 30 teams better than us. Or we could be better than some who are ranked ahead of us.”
In fact, several national writers and voters including Andy Katz and Pat Forde of ESPN do not have Nova ranked in the Top 25 at all. So if Jay’s team can pull off a victory (or at least keep it close) it will legitimize the team’s ranking. In addition, this game is Nova’s lone opportunity this season to get a top notch non-conference victory, which could have a significant impact in March. Despite the subpar competition thus far, here is what I’ve noticed:
The Good
1. Dante Cunningham has been incredible thus far. He is using an array of post moves to power his way to the bucket, he’s finishing well and he’s hitting the mid-range jumper, which is huge. He’s currently leading the team with 17.3 points and 8.0 rebounds per game and will be our best big man since Michael Bradley if he keeps it up. In short, he adds a completely new dimension to this team’s offense. In addition, he is bringing Will Sheridan-like basketball IQ and leadership to anchor the back line of the defense.
2. Largely due to the emergence of Cunningham, Jay Wright has directed more of a concerted effort this year to look inside early in the shot clock. As a result, we are seeing less of the “take-‘em” offense than the last couple years. While Reynolds and Fisher clearly still have the green-light to take defenders off the dribble, the more structured ball movement is creating more open looks than in the past. You can tell these guys have played together for a while and are very comfortable with the spacing on offense and know when and where to look for open teammates.
3. While Cunningham’s newfound scoring touch is getting most of the attention, Scottie Reynolds is quietly playing exceptionally well as more of a pure point guard than ever before. While his scoring is down slightly (14.0 points per game, down from 15.9 last season), he is making a concerted effort to get teammates involved first and looking for his shot second. As a result, he is averaging a career-high 4.8 assists per game and more importantly, his assist-to-turnover ratio is an impressive 2.11. I fully expect him to lead this team in scoring by the end of the season, but the effort he is investing in getting teammates involved now will pay dividends for the team’s offense down the road.
4. Corey Stokes is knocking down 51% of his 3 point attempts this season, which is huge considering he shot a lowly 25% from 3 thru eight games last season. He is much more assertive in looking for his shot this year (averaging 12.9 points per game) and the fact that he is knocking them down at an impressive clip is stretching defenses and opening up opportunities for teammates.
The Bad
1. The lack of frontcourt depth is quite alarming as this team heads towards the nightly battles of Big East play. Cunningham and Pena are solid despite being slightly undersized, but when they get in foul trouble we are now relying on a rail-thin Shane Clark and a 6’6” Dwayne Anderson (assuming he comes back healthy) to hold down the fort on the boards and protect the rim on defense. This is where the Drummond transfer hurts more than anything and I fear that this will once again be the team’s downfall in March. The optimists point to the fact that Drummond wasn’t even playing yet and didn’t play for much of last year, but the fact is that the real potential for this team was in the combination of a fabulous backcourt with a solid frontcourt where we had 3 interchangeable parts (Cunningham, Pena, Drummond) that could all rebound and finish inside. As it stands now, we still have the fabulous backcourt, but our front-court is now average at best compared to Big East and NCAA tourney teams due to its lack of depth. It might be good enough to get to the Sweet 16, but the first NCAA team we run into with a great frontline (such as UNC in 2005, Florida in 2006, Kentucky in 2007, Kansas in 2008) will likely eat us alive inside and on the boards.
2. In Jay’s base man-to-man defense, he likes his players to “switch” on screens if they can’t fight thru them, rather than give up a step to the guy coming off the screen. It is hard to say whether this helps or hurts the overall defense, but the constant switching on D leads to our big men matched up against smaller players and often results in them picking up fouls away from the basket. Given the lack of frontcourt depth mentioned above AND the effect Cunningham’s emergence has had on the offense, we simply can’t afford for our guys to be in foul trouble.
3. While Antonio Pena (9.3 points and 5.6 rebounds per game) is playing a bigger role on this team, he has not quite made the leap to stardom that I had called for in my Keys to the Season. Despite shooting an impressive 60% from the field, he is just not asserting himself enough to be a consistent scoring threat. He is taking a mere 5 shots per game. Part of that is deference to Cunningham and part of it is limited minutes due to being in foul trouble in 4 of the 8 games, but this offense will not reach its full potential until he is a legitimate threat to score every time he touches the ball.
Burning Questions:
1. Will Cunningham continue his stellar production once Big East play starts? He is playing at an incredible level right now, but its hard to say how legit that is given the subpar competition he’s faced. When the big men go from being 6’7” like they are now to 6’10” in the Big East we will find out.
2. Will Stokes continue to shoot well against tougher competition? He is averaging 12.9 points per game and shooting 51% from 3-point range overall, but against our toughest 2 opponents to date (Niagara and URI) he has averaged only 5.5 ppg and 33% from 3.
3. Will Dwayne Anderson come back 100% and be as effective as he was down the stretch last season? He doesn’t necessarily excel in any one area, but he definitely provides a spark of energy and athleticism that is invaluable in Big East games.
4. Will Cunningham and Pena be able to effectively defend Big East big men like Thabeet, Samuels, Monroe, Harangody, Blair and Onuaku without getting into foul trouble?
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Villanova 2008-2009 Season Preview - Part 5
Five Fearless Predictions (11/14)
1. No Big East team will win 15 conference games.
Since the creation of the 16-team mega conference in 2005, the Big East champion has lost no more than 3 conference games. I think that changes this year. If a team can manage to get to 14-4, that should be good enough to win a conference this loaded. So while I predict that no team will win 15 league games, by the same token I think that as many as 10 teams will finish 9-9 or better. So you will have a cluster of teams between 9 and 14 wins, making each conference game that much more critical. As a result of teams beating each other up, I think it will be hard for any of the league's team's to maintain their Top 5 ranking throughout the season, but many of the middle of the pack teams will earn respect. So I think you will have 6 to 8 Big East teams fluctuating between # 8 and # 25 in the polls all season and as a result, the conference will get a record 9 bids to the NCAA tournament in March.
2. One middle of the pack Big East team will suffer a major breakdown this season.
I have to admit, this isn't a very risky pick, because depending on whom you talk to there are anywhere from 6 to 8 teams projected to be "middle of the pack." And lets face it, this league is tougher than ever this season, so its certainly possible that there is a team out there that doesn't step up this year and can't hang with the rest of the contenders. Any sort of injury bug, slow start by incoming freshmen or 5-game slump like the one Nova suffered last season could easily derail the hopes of a team that expects to get back to the NCAA tournament. The most likely candidates for this dubious honor are Marquette (not enough size), Georgetown (counting on young players), West Virginia (have to find a new go-to guy) and yes...Villanova. There, I said it. While I am optimistic about this team's talent, experience and potential, we have to remember that this is the same roster as last season...the same roster that lost to Rutgers by 12 and St. Joe's by 22 and struggled to finish .500 in the Big East. They had a nice run to finish the year, but if guys like Stokes and Pena don't step up, there is always the possibility that this team could revert back to the inconsistent play we saw for much of last season.
3. Corey Stokes will have a breakout year.
Despite my caveat in # 2 above, I really think Corey Stokes is primed to become this program's next big star. He clearly has the size, physique and skills to be an all-conference level player and I think he will begin to assert himself more this season. The struggles he went thru last season learning to play Jay Wright-level defense and do more than just spot-up for long 3's will only serve to make him a more complete all-around player for the rest of his career. This year, I foresee Stokes becoming the 2nd leading scorer and top 3-point shooter on this team, averaging around 15 points per game. His size and shooting range will provide the type of long-range threat this team hasn't had since Allan Ray graduated.
(Note: I realize that Reynolds is a very capable 3-point shooter, but he tends to create his own offense, which makes it very difficult to get uncontested looks. Having a guy like Stokes who can spot up on the wing and come off screens for wide-open looks just like Ray did, will be invaluable.)
4. Villanova will finally have a legitimate post presence.
5. Villanova will finish in the Top 5 of the Big East, earning a 5-seed in the NCAA tournament.
In a normal year, with this roster and this much experience, I'd predict a Top 2 Big East finish, a 25-win regular season and a 3 seed for Villanova in the NCAA tournament. But this year will be more about survival and preparation for March than about gaudy rankings and win totals. I think Villanova will get off to a good start, going something like 12-1 in the non-conference portion of the schedule - they've got enough experience back to avoid early season mental lapses. Then the Big East season will start and Jay Wright will be happy to win 2 out of every 3 games and every win will be a hard-fought battle. Don't expect any long winning streaks in January and February - the schedule is just too tough night in and night out - they just need to survive against teams they should beat, find a way to win the toss-ups and try to steal a game or two against the league's top teams. As a result of this constant up and down, the team will probably be overlooked nationally a bit, but they will certainly be battle-tested. (It will be difficult to continuously move up in the polls when you have another Top 25 opponent every other game...UNLESS you start knocking off the Louisville's and UConn's of the world). I'd say 12-6 is a good goal for this team in conference play, and I'll predict they finish 11-7 (23-8 overall), which should put them in a tie for 5th place. That, combined with a solid Big East tournament showing would be good enough to earn a 5 or 6 seed in the NCAA tournament, where they would be extremely dangerous because they will have played so many tough teams, in what should be close games.
1. No Big East team will win 15 conference games.
Since the creation of the 16-team mega conference in 2005, the Big East champion has lost no more than 3 conference games. I think that changes this year. If a team can manage to get to 14-4, that should be good enough to win a conference this loaded. So while I predict that no team will win 15 league games, by the same token I think that as many as 10 teams will finish 9-9 or better. So you will have a cluster of teams between 9 and 14 wins, making each conference game that much more critical. As a result of teams beating each other up, I think it will be hard for any of the league's team's to maintain their Top 5 ranking throughout the season, but many of the middle of the pack teams will earn respect. So I think you will have 6 to 8 Big East teams fluctuating between # 8 and # 25 in the polls all season and as a result, the conference will get a record 9 bids to the NCAA tournament in March.
2. One middle of the pack Big East team will suffer a major breakdown this season.
I have to admit, this isn't a very risky pick, because depending on whom you talk to there are anywhere from 6 to 8 teams projected to be "middle of the pack." And lets face it, this league is tougher than ever this season, so its certainly possible that there is a team out there that doesn't step up this year and can't hang with the rest of the contenders. Any sort of injury bug, slow start by incoming freshmen or 5-game slump like the one Nova suffered last season could easily derail the hopes of a team that expects to get back to the NCAA tournament. The most likely candidates for this dubious honor are Marquette (not enough size), Georgetown (counting on young players), West Virginia (have to find a new go-to guy) and yes...Villanova. There, I said it. While I am optimistic about this team's talent, experience and potential, we have to remember that this is the same roster as last season...the same roster that lost to Rutgers by 12 and St. Joe's by 22 and struggled to finish .500 in the Big East. They had a nice run to finish the year, but if guys like Stokes and Pena don't step up, there is always the possibility that this team could revert back to the inconsistent play we saw for much of last season.
3. Corey Stokes will have a breakout year.
Despite my caveat in # 2 above, I really think Corey Stokes is primed to become this program's next big star. He clearly has the size, physique and skills to be an all-conference level player and I think he will begin to assert himself more this season. The struggles he went thru last season learning to play Jay Wright-level defense and do more than just spot-up for long 3's will only serve to make him a more complete all-around player for the rest of his career. This year, I foresee Stokes becoming the 2nd leading scorer and top 3-point shooter on this team, averaging around 15 points per game. His size and shooting range will provide the type of long-range threat this team hasn't had since Allan Ray graduated.
(Note: I realize that Reynolds is a very capable 3-point shooter, but he tends to create his own offense, which makes it very difficult to get uncontested looks. Having a guy like Stokes who can spot up on the wing and come off screens for wide-open looks just like Ray did, will be invaluable.)
4. Villanova will finally have a legitimate post presence.
With Dante Cunningham building on a solid junior season (10.4ppg, 6.5 rpg) and Antonio Pena showing glimpses of stardom last year, I think we will see the first productive interior scoring presence of the Jay Wright era. Both guys are somewhat undersized for Big East post players, but both are extremely athletic and have enough post skills to overcome their lack of height. Plus they compliment each other extremely well offensively as both know how to pass, screen, cut and finish. The attention placed on Reynolds and (hopefully) Stokes will give these guys plenty of opportunities to shine and I believe Jay Wright will take advantage of it. You will see less of the "take 'em" offense that we've seen so often the last few seasons (although Reynolds and Fisher will still have the green light) and more deliberate looks into the paint early in the shot-clock to get the big guys involved, creating more of an inside-out offense rather than outside-in. These guys will get every opportunity to become go-to guys when we need a clutch bucket or when our perimeter shooters are having a cold night. If they can improve on their free throw shooting (each guy shot 69% last season), they could both average double figures in scoring. Add a healthy Cassiem Drummond off the bench and this is a post presence like we haven't seen before. (If only the 2006 team had a frontcourt like this to go with all those guards).
5. Villanova will finish in the Top 5 of the Big East, earning a 5-seed in the NCAA tournament.
In a normal year, with this roster and this much experience, I'd predict a Top 2 Big East finish, a 25-win regular season and a 3 seed for Villanova in the NCAA tournament. But this year will be more about survival and preparation for March than about gaudy rankings and win totals. I think Villanova will get off to a good start, going something like 12-1 in the non-conference portion of the schedule - they've got enough experience back to avoid early season mental lapses. Then the Big East season will start and Jay Wright will be happy to win 2 out of every 3 games and every win will be a hard-fought battle. Don't expect any long winning streaks in January and February - the schedule is just too tough night in and night out - they just need to survive against teams they should beat, find a way to win the toss-ups and try to steal a game or two against the league's top teams. As a result of this constant up and down, the team will probably be overlooked nationally a bit, but they will certainly be battle-tested. (It will be difficult to continuously move up in the polls when you have another Top 25 opponent every other game...UNLESS you start knocking off the Louisville's and UConn's of the world). I'd say 12-6 is a good goal for this team in conference play, and I'll predict they finish 11-7 (23-8 overall), which should put them in a tie for 5th place. That, combined with a solid Big East tournament showing would be good enough to earn a 5 or 6 seed in the NCAA tournament, where they would be extremely dangerous because they will have played so many tough teams, in what should be close games.
Villanova 2008-2009 Season Preview - Part 4
Keys to the Season (11/13)
1. In my mind the biggest key to this season is the development of Corey Stokes and Antonio Pena. Along with Corey Fisher, these guys must grow up in a hurry - there is no time for them to be role players anymore. We know what to expect from most of the players on this team - we know that Reynolds will be a great scorer and team leader, that Cunningham will give us 10-12 points and 6-8 boards every night, that Drummond and Clark will provide help on the glass, and that Anderson and Redding will be solid if unspectacular contributors on the wing. And while Fisher should improve this year, he had a solid freshman year and I feel that we know what type of player he will be going forward. What we don't know is what we will get from Stokes and Pena. These are the two most athletic, physically gifted, NBA-ready bodies we have on the roster and their potential is sky-high as a result. Stokes struggled mightily to adjust to Jay Wright's defensive standards last year and shot only 24% from 3 point range thru mid-February before finally cracking the starting lineup, shooting a more respectable 36% from behind the arc and averaging 12.8 points per game down the stretch. While Stokes appeared to go through a gradual progression last year, Antonio Pena mixed flashes of brilliance with stretches of little production. He scored in double figures 11 times last season, but mixed those in with 8 games in which he scored two points or less. Similarly, he grabbed 6 or more rebounds eight times but also had eight games where he failed to grab more than 2 rebounds. They say players make the biggest leap in development from freshman to sophomore year...so the question is...will these guys make the "leap" to become stars or will we see more of the inconsistency we saw last year?
Make no mistake, this development is much bigger than the individual performances of Corey Stokes and Antonio Pena. In fact, I would say that this team goes only as far as these two guys can take them - Reynolds can't do it by all by himself, and quite frankly whether Scottie averages 15 points or 22 points won't change the team's overall performance much. But Stokes and Pena have the ability to change the dynamic of the entire offense. Pena's continued development in the paint will take pressure off of Cunningham and force opposing teams to defend two legitimate scoring threats in the post. Most teams, even at the Big East level, have one exceptional interior defender but not two. If he can give the team what Cunningham provided last year (10 points, 6 rebounds per game), this team will be very tough to stop. Corey Stokes' ability to stretch the defense with the long-range shot (assuming he is knocking them down) will open up room for the big guys to operate in the paint and create opportunities for Reynolds and Fisher to drive to the basket. The space that this will create, combined with what should be improved decision-making from Reynolds and Fisher will lead to greater scoring balance than we've seen the last 2 seasons. As a result we could see as many as 5 guys average double figures in scoring.
Reynolds will still be the leading scorer and best player, but the faster Stokes and Pena close that gap, the better this team will be. I liken this to when Allan Ray, Randy Foye, and Curtis Sumpter started their careers. For the first two years, Ray was clearly the best of the trio, led the team in scoring and was the go-to guy. And then even though Ray never faded, Foye and Sumpter suddenly caught up and eventually passed Ray as the team's best players. If Stokes and Pena start to catch up to Reynolds, and the physical talent is there to do it, then suddenly this team will have three stars instead of one. Then, and ONLY then, will this team be a Final Four contender.
2. The next biggest key to the season is perimeter defense. While this team isn't necessarily built to run all game long, they have plenty of scoring options. Therefore, it will come down to defending well enough to scrap out wins in the Big East. The experienced roster returning helps that cause, but there is a question about whether Jay Wright's preferred "big" lineup (Reynolds, Stokes, Anderson, Pena, Cunningham) is quick enough on the perimeter to defend other Big East backcourts. I believe the interior defense will be solid, especially if Drummond is healthy enough to contribute big minutes but Stokes and Anderson have to be able to defend other Big East wing players one on one. They certainly have the size, but my concern is whether they are quick enough to prevent guys like Sam Young, Jerel McNeal and Jerome Dyson from going around them. Jay could always put Corey Fisher out there for additional quickness but then you are back to the small defensive lineup that Jay seemed to hate last season. Reggie Redding, a good defender, is another option, but Redding doesn't provide as much firepower on the offensive end. Jay will have to pull these strings carefully throughout the season to keep opposing teams off-balance and get what he wants out of his defense. From 2005-2007, Villanova ranked in the Top 15 nationally in defensive efficiency (a term us hoops junkies use to describe points allowed per possession), while last year's team fell to 34th. The team will need to get back up into the Top 20 to go where it wants to go.
3. Finally, and this is a no-brainer but still worth stating: staying healthy will be key. The Big East conference is a physical battle every night and guys get banged up, bruised and battered on a regular basis. Playing hurt is a fact of life. But the team has to find a way to avoid serious injury and keep guys fresh during the long season. Drummond was out for extended periods last season and Shane Clark has already had knee surgery to begin this season. This team has lots of talent and good depth but still can't afford a rash of injuries if it expects to earn victories in this season's Big East.
1. In my mind the biggest key to this season is the development of Corey Stokes and Antonio Pena. Along with Corey Fisher, these guys must grow up in a hurry - there is no time for them to be role players anymore. We know what to expect from most of the players on this team - we know that Reynolds will be a great scorer and team leader, that Cunningham will give us 10-12 points and 6-8 boards every night, that Drummond and Clark will provide help on the glass, and that Anderson and Redding will be solid if unspectacular contributors on the wing. And while Fisher should improve this year, he had a solid freshman year and I feel that we know what type of player he will be going forward. What we don't know is what we will get from Stokes and Pena. These are the two most athletic, physically gifted, NBA-ready bodies we have on the roster and their potential is sky-high as a result. Stokes struggled mightily to adjust to Jay Wright's defensive standards last year and shot only 24% from 3 point range thru mid-February before finally cracking the starting lineup, shooting a more respectable 36% from behind the arc and averaging 12.8 points per game down the stretch. While Stokes appeared to go through a gradual progression last year, Antonio Pena mixed flashes of brilliance with stretches of little production. He scored in double figures 11 times last season, but mixed those in with 8 games in which he scored two points or less. Similarly, he grabbed 6 or more rebounds eight times but also had eight games where he failed to grab more than 2 rebounds. They say players make the biggest leap in development from freshman to sophomore year...so the question is...will these guys make the "leap" to become stars or will we see more of the inconsistency we saw last year?
Make no mistake, this development is much bigger than the individual performances of Corey Stokes and Antonio Pena. In fact, I would say that this team goes only as far as these two guys can take them - Reynolds can't do it by all by himself, and quite frankly whether Scottie averages 15 points or 22 points won't change the team's overall performance much. But Stokes and Pena have the ability to change the dynamic of the entire offense. Pena's continued development in the paint will take pressure off of Cunningham and force opposing teams to defend two legitimate scoring threats in the post. Most teams, even at the Big East level, have one exceptional interior defender but not two. If he can give the team what Cunningham provided last year (10 points, 6 rebounds per game), this team will be very tough to stop. Corey Stokes' ability to stretch the defense with the long-range shot (assuming he is knocking them down) will open up room for the big guys to operate in the paint and create opportunities for Reynolds and Fisher to drive to the basket. The space that this will create, combined with what should be improved decision-making from Reynolds and Fisher will lead to greater scoring balance than we've seen the last 2 seasons. As a result we could see as many as 5 guys average double figures in scoring.
Reynolds will still be the leading scorer and best player, but the faster Stokes and Pena close that gap, the better this team will be. I liken this to when Allan Ray, Randy Foye, and Curtis Sumpter started their careers. For the first two years, Ray was clearly the best of the trio, led the team in scoring and was the go-to guy. And then even though Ray never faded, Foye and Sumpter suddenly caught up and eventually passed Ray as the team's best players. If Stokes and Pena start to catch up to Reynolds, and the physical talent is there to do it, then suddenly this team will have three stars instead of one. Then, and ONLY then, will this team be a Final Four contender.
2. The next biggest key to the season is perimeter defense. While this team isn't necessarily built to run all game long, they have plenty of scoring options. Therefore, it will come down to defending well enough to scrap out wins in the Big East. The experienced roster returning helps that cause, but there is a question about whether Jay Wright's preferred "big" lineup (Reynolds, Stokes, Anderson, Pena, Cunningham) is quick enough on the perimeter to defend other Big East backcourts. I believe the interior defense will be solid, especially if Drummond is healthy enough to contribute big minutes but Stokes and Anderson have to be able to defend other Big East wing players one on one. They certainly have the size, but my concern is whether they are quick enough to prevent guys like Sam Young, Jerel McNeal and Jerome Dyson from going around them. Jay could always put Corey Fisher out there for additional quickness but then you are back to the small defensive lineup that Jay seemed to hate last season. Reggie Redding, a good defender, is another option, but Redding doesn't provide as much firepower on the offensive end. Jay will have to pull these strings carefully throughout the season to keep opposing teams off-balance and get what he wants out of his defense. From 2005-2007, Villanova ranked in the Top 15 nationally in defensive efficiency (a term us hoops junkies use to describe points allowed per possession), while last year's team fell to 34th. The team will need to get back up into the Top 20 to go where it wants to go.
3. Finally, and this is a no-brainer but still worth stating: staying healthy will be key. The Big East conference is a physical battle every night and guys get banged up, bruised and battered on a regular basis. Playing hurt is a fact of life. But the team has to find a way to avoid serious injury and keep guys fresh during the long season. Drummond was out for extended periods last season and Shane Clark has already had knee surgery to begin this season. This team has lots of talent and good depth but still can't afford a rash of injuries if it expects to earn victories in this season's Big East.
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Villanova 2008-2009 Season Preview - Part 3
What to Watch For (11/12)
Jay Wright has a lot of experience coming back, which should eliminate a lot of the lineup shifting that we saw during the first half of last season. Expect to see a starting lineup of Scottie Reynolds, Corey Stokes, Dwayne Anderson, Antonio Pena and Dante Cunningham. Shane Clark may have challenged Anderson or Pena for a starting spot but he just had arthroscopic knee surgery and will likely come off the bench when he returns in 4 to 6 weeks. And while Corey Fisher is probably one of the five most talented players on the roster and will receive "starters minutes", as one of this team's lone two point guards, Fisher will likely come off the bench as the 6th man to backup Reynolds and provide a change of pace. This also allows Jay to go with a bigger defensive lineup on the perimeter, something he clearly preferred last season. Redding, Drummond and (eventually) Clark will provide depth, experience and defense off the bench.
The biggest "news," or lack thereof, for this team is that everybody is back and there are no newcomers to integrate into the rotation (freshman Maurice Sutton will likely redshirt barring a rash of frontcourt injuries). While one of Jay Wright's shortcomings is that it takes young players an inordinant amount of time to adjust to his defensive standards, one of his strengths is that he is very good with an experienced team. I would even go so far as to say that experience is more important than talent for a Jay Wright-coached team. Luckily, this team has both. They are not exactly the 2006 Randy Foye led-team, but they aren't too far behind. They should be more balanced offensively this season with guys like Stokes, Anderson and Pena emerging as real scoring threats to take the pressure off of Reynolds and Cunningham. And the defense has a chance to pick up the intensity right where they left off the last month of last season. They might not be able to run with the likes of Louisville, UConn, Syracuse and Notre Dame, but expect to see a very good defensive team, with sound fundamentals and scoring balance that will scrap out tough wins with toughness and intensity.
Jay Wright has a lot of experience coming back, which should eliminate a lot of the lineup shifting that we saw during the first half of last season. Expect to see a starting lineup of Scottie Reynolds, Corey Stokes, Dwayne Anderson, Antonio Pena and Dante Cunningham. Shane Clark may have challenged Anderson or Pena for a starting spot but he just had arthroscopic knee surgery and will likely come off the bench when he returns in 4 to 6 weeks. And while Corey Fisher is probably one of the five most talented players on the roster and will receive "starters minutes", as one of this team's lone two point guards, Fisher will likely come off the bench as the 6th man to backup Reynolds and provide a change of pace. This also allows Jay to go with a bigger defensive lineup on the perimeter, something he clearly preferred last season. Redding, Drummond and (eventually) Clark will provide depth, experience and defense off the bench.
The biggest "news," or lack thereof, for this team is that everybody is back and there are no newcomers to integrate into the rotation (freshman Maurice Sutton will likely redshirt barring a rash of frontcourt injuries). While one of Jay Wright's shortcomings is that it takes young players an inordinant amount of time to adjust to his defensive standards, one of his strengths is that he is very good with an experienced team. I would even go so far as to say that experience is more important than talent for a Jay Wright-coached team. Luckily, this team has both. They are not exactly the 2006 Randy Foye led-team, but they aren't too far behind. They should be more balanced offensively this season with guys like Stokes, Anderson and Pena emerging as real scoring threats to take the pressure off of Reynolds and Cunningham. And the defense has a chance to pick up the intensity right where they left off the last month of last season. They might not be able to run with the likes of Louisville, UConn, Syracuse and Notre Dame, but expect to see a very good defensive team, with sound fundamentals and scoring balance that will scrap out tough wins with toughness and intensity.
Villanova 2008-2009 Season Preview - Part 2
Beastly Big East! (11/11)
In most other years, this Villanova team with every major contributor coming back from a Sweet 16 run, would be picked to contend for the Big East title. Not this year. Nobody even picked Nova to crack the top 3. The coaches picked them to finish 5th and most of the national media has the Cats 6th or 7th. But this is not a slight against Jay Wright or the Villanova program, it is simply a testament to how strong and deep the Big East is this year. Jim Calhoun and Jim Boeheim, guys who have been coaching in the Big East for 20+ years, called it the best league they've seen in their tenures. Rick Pitino, who has been coaching the college game for 33 years called it "the strongest league in the history of college basketball."
Why so strong? Why this particular year? Well for starters, the Big East sent a record 8 teams to the NCAA tournament last year and if you think that is impressive, wait till this March, cause the league's top 10 teams have nearly EVERYBODY back. An unusually high number of Big East players spurned the NBA draft last spring, so this year's superstars are largely last years superstars...only with another year of experience under their belts. 19 of the league's top 25 scorers, 12 of its top 15 rebounders, and its top 7 in assists, steals and blocks are all back this year. As a result the Big East placed 12 of its players on the pre-season list of 50 candidates for the Wooden Player of the Year Award - the most prestigious individual award in college basketball. Think about that for a second. There are 31 conferences in Division 1 college basketball, yet the national media is saying that 25% of the best players in the country are in 1 conference! And the preseason polls back it up, with the conference getting a record 7 teams in the initial Top 25 and 2 more teams receiving votes.
It starts with Louisville at the top, who lost a couple big men but simply reloaded with the nation's best freshman big man, Samardo Samuels, who should make them even better than last year. UConn is close behind with every major contributor back from a Top 15 team last year, plus McDonald's All-American point guard Kemba Walker. Notre Dame has two first-team All-conference players back in Luke Harangody and Kyle McAlarney and Pitt returns 4 of 5 starters from a team that won 26 games last year. Marquette, despite losing head coach Tom Crean, still has the senior guard trio of Jerel McNeal, Dominic James & Wesley Matthews, who form perhaps the best backcourt in the conference. Georgetown is the only team among last year's tournament teams with major losses (Hibbert, Wallace & Ewing), but they still return 3 starters and added perhaps the nation's 2nd best freshman big man (Greg Monroe) to take Hibbert's place. Similarly, West Virginia lost Joe Alexander but reloaded with McDonald's All-American wing Devin Ebanks to fit in with the rest of last year's supporting cast. Syracuse lost Donte Green to the NBA draft, but returns everyone else from a team that went 9-9 in the Big East last year AND returns Eric Devendorf and Andy Rautins from knee injuries that kept them out last year. Finally, Providence has a new coach to go with a senior laden team with plenty of talent that never quite got over the hump under previous coach Tim Welch. Given all this talent and experience back, every night will be a dogfight and teams will have to scrap for wins but the ones that survive will be battle-tested for the NCAA tournament.
In most other years, this Villanova team with every major contributor coming back from a Sweet 16 run, would be picked to contend for the Big East title. Not this year. Nobody even picked Nova to crack the top 3. The coaches picked them to finish 5th and most of the national media has the Cats 6th or 7th. But this is not a slight against Jay Wright or the Villanova program, it is simply a testament to how strong and deep the Big East is this year. Jim Calhoun and Jim Boeheim, guys who have been coaching in the Big East for 20+ years, called it the best league they've seen in their tenures. Rick Pitino, who has been coaching the college game for 33 years called it "the strongest league in the history of college basketball."
Why so strong? Why this particular year? Well for starters, the Big East sent a record 8 teams to the NCAA tournament last year and if you think that is impressive, wait till this March, cause the league's top 10 teams have nearly EVERYBODY back. An unusually high number of Big East players spurned the NBA draft last spring, so this year's superstars are largely last years superstars...only with another year of experience under their belts. 19 of the league's top 25 scorers, 12 of its top 15 rebounders, and its top 7 in assists, steals and blocks are all back this year. As a result the Big East placed 12 of its players on the pre-season list of 50 candidates for the Wooden Player of the Year Award - the most prestigious individual award in college basketball. Think about that for a second. There are 31 conferences in Division 1 college basketball, yet the national media is saying that 25% of the best players in the country are in 1 conference! And the preseason polls back it up, with the conference getting a record 7 teams in the initial Top 25 and 2 more teams receiving votes.
It starts with Louisville at the top, who lost a couple big men but simply reloaded with the nation's best freshman big man, Samardo Samuels, who should make them even better than last year. UConn is close behind with every major contributor back from a Top 15 team last year, plus McDonald's All-American point guard Kemba Walker. Notre Dame has two first-team All-conference players back in Luke Harangody and Kyle McAlarney and Pitt returns 4 of 5 starters from a team that won 26 games last year. Marquette, despite losing head coach Tom Crean, still has the senior guard trio of Jerel McNeal, Dominic James & Wesley Matthews, who form perhaps the best backcourt in the conference. Georgetown is the only team among last year's tournament teams with major losses (Hibbert, Wallace & Ewing), but they still return 3 starters and added perhaps the nation's 2nd best freshman big man (Greg Monroe) to take Hibbert's place. Similarly, West Virginia lost Joe Alexander but reloaded with McDonald's All-American wing Devin Ebanks to fit in with the rest of last year's supporting cast. Syracuse lost Donte Green to the NBA draft, but returns everyone else from a team that went 9-9 in the Big East last year AND returns Eric Devendorf and Andy Rautins from knee injuries that kept them out last year. Finally, Providence has a new coach to go with a senior laden team with plenty of talent that never quite got over the hump under previous coach Tim Welch. Given all this talent and experience back, every night will be a dogfight and teams will have to scrap for wins but the ones that survive will be battle-tested for the NCAA tournament.
Sunday, November 9, 2008
Villanova 2008-2009 Season Preview - Part 1
The Villanova 2008-2009 Season Preview will be rolled out in 5 parts, one day at a time this week, leading up to the season opener against Albany on Friday.
Rankings Reaction (11/10)
Villanova is ranked # 23 in the AP poll and # 25 in the Coaches Poll. What's interesting about this is the dispersion of the team's ranking among voters. A few voters have Nova as high as # 13, while several others have the Cats un-ranked altogether. What creates this disparity is the fact that some see a Sweet 16 team with everybody coming back, while others remember that this team lost 13 games last year and barely made the tournament. Given the two varying perceptions, you end up somewhere in the middle, which is why the Cats are ranked in the high 20's. So which is the more accurate perception? Call me a homer, but I think the team is slightly underrated. Its not that I think that Nova is a Top 10 team, its just that I don't see two dozen better teams out there. After UNC at # 1, there is not much difference between # 2 and # 25. Do the coaches really expect us to believe that UConn and Pitt are 20 spots better than Nova this year when the Cats beat both of those teams last year AND have everybody back?! I can understand Kansas getting respect given that they just won a National Championship, but that won't last long as they just lost 5 of their top 6 players. But Arizona St, Wake Forest, and Florida? All are young talented teams with everybody back just like Nova. The only difference? Nova is the only one that has tournament experience, as the other 3 teams went to the NIT last season. All of that said, I kinda like the fact that Nova is underrated to begin the season - it gives the team an opportunity to rack up some early wins out of the spotlight before being thrown on the main stage December 9th against # 7 Texas at Madison Square Garden.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/rankings
Rankings Reaction (11/10)
Villanova is ranked # 23 in the AP poll and # 25 in the Coaches Poll. What's interesting about this is the dispersion of the team's ranking among voters. A few voters have Nova as high as # 13, while several others have the Cats un-ranked altogether. What creates this disparity is the fact that some see a Sweet 16 team with everybody coming back, while others remember that this team lost 13 games last year and barely made the tournament. Given the two varying perceptions, you end up somewhere in the middle, which is why the Cats are ranked in the high 20's. So which is the more accurate perception? Call me a homer, but I think the team is slightly underrated. Its not that I think that Nova is a Top 10 team, its just that I don't see two dozen better teams out there. After UNC at # 1, there is not much difference between # 2 and # 25. Do the coaches really expect us to believe that UConn and Pitt are 20 spots better than Nova this year when the Cats beat both of those teams last year AND have everybody back?! I can understand Kansas getting respect given that they just won a National Championship, but that won't last long as they just lost 5 of their top 6 players. But Arizona St, Wake Forest, and Florida? All are young talented teams with everybody back just like Nova. The only difference? Nova is the only one that has tournament experience, as the other 3 teams went to the NIT last season. All of that said, I kinda like the fact that Nova is underrated to begin the season - it gives the team an opportunity to rack up some early wins out of the spotlight before being thrown on the main stage December 9th against # 7 Texas at Madison Square Garden.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/rankings
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Villanova - Kansas preview
The Challenge
Remember the Florida team we lost to two years ago in the Elite 8? Remember the UNC team we lost to in 2005 on that last second traveling call? Both of those teams went on to win the national championship and this Kansas team is just as good. Kansas has 5 or 6 guys that could potentially be in the NBA next year if they choose to leave early, and another 3 that are very good role players. That lineup includes 2 of the best 3-point shooters in the country, in 6'1" point guard Mario Chalmers and 6'6" wing Brandon Rush. And their 6th man is a 5'11" point guard with superior quickness and toughness, in the mold of Kyle Lowry. Oh, and did I mention that the 7th and 8th guys in their rotation are each 6'11"? Thats right, they have two 7-footers coming OFF THE BENCH!
All of that leads to tremendous balance in their offense - 5 guys average in double figures - and while any one of about 6 guys is capable of going off for 30 points in any given game, it is much more likely that they will end up having 3 guys with 15 points instead. They are in the top 10 in the nation in nearly every statistical category that matters - scoring avg, scoring margin, rebounding, fg % defense, turnover margin, steals, blocked shots, etc. Given all of that, it is no wonder that we are 11.5 point underdogs and nobody is giving us a chance. But then again, that is what they said about our Sweet 16 matchup with UNC in 2005 (right after we lost Sumpter) and we gave them all they could handle...
Blue-print for a victory
1. In their 3 losses this season (yes, only 3) Darrell Arthur, their best and most athletic big man, has been saddled with foul trouble. He is not comfortable on defense playing more than 7-8 feet away from the basket. Dante & Pena need to catch the ball in the high post and take it at him aggressively. He is athletic enough to block everything they throw up there but its worth the risk in return for the chance that he picks up a couple quick fouls.
2. More so than Clemson or Siena, these guys like to play up-tempo. If we try to run with them, they will blow us out of the gym. They average over 82 points per game, yet in their 3 losses they have averaged a mere 68. We need to slow it down and keep this game in the 60's.
3. You can't stop everybody, the talent disparity is too great. So Jay has to pick his spots and if I had a vote it would go towards trying to control Mario Chalmers. While Arthur and Rush are probably their best NBA prospects, I happen to think Chalmers is their most valuable player. Chalmers is basically a clone of Scottie Reynolds, and perhaps slightly better. He doesn't score as much as Scottie (mainly due to the team balance), but he's a better shooter (a ridiculous 47% from 3!), a better passer and a much better defender. Like Scottie, he drives hard to the basket off of ball-screens, but moreso than Scottie he looks to dish to slashing cutters and athletic big guys for dunks. Jay will have to come up with a gameplan that includes a committee of defenders and constantly changing schemes (press, traps, hedges, etc) that will hopefully confuse and exhaust Chalmers. The idea is that if you disrupt the point guard, hopefully you can disrupt the entire offense.
4. Play the "Villanova Basketball" that Jay always talks about. In other words, win it with Big East toughness. Beat them to every loose ball, scrap out offensive rebounds, be physical, take charges and never back down. This is one of the few areas where I think we have an edge over Kansas (they rely on talent to win so often that they don't need to play with superior toughness) and we need to take full advantage.
5. This may sound obvious, but the longer we can hang around the better chance we have to take this thing down to the wire. Jay's first order of business has to be withstanding the initial overwhelmingly athletic wave they will throw at us. He has to keep our guys poised and prevent us from getting our doors blown off before the first TV timeout. Once our guys and their guys both realize we can play with them, the psychological effects can be huge. Kansas, and Bill Self in particular, has a history of choking in the tournament and it will be interesting to see how they handle it if their offense stalls a little bit and we are hanging around in the 2nd half. And any of you that watched the Georgetown-Davidson game the other day saw what a little confidence and momentum can do for an underdog playing with nothing to lose.
I didn't really address our offense in this blueprint because its a given that we will need to be clicking on all cylinders, getting to the rim, knocking down 3's, hitting the offensive boards, etc. Likewise, I'm not gonna do the "Category: Edge Team A" because it is all one-sided on paper. Make no mistake, its gonna take our A+ game and Kansas' C- game for us to pull this off. A tall order? Absolutely. Is it impossible? No way, this is March Madness...
Remember the Florida team we lost to two years ago in the Elite 8? Remember the UNC team we lost to in 2005 on that last second traveling call? Both of those teams went on to win the national championship and this Kansas team is just as good. Kansas has 5 or 6 guys that could potentially be in the NBA next year if they choose to leave early, and another 3 that are very good role players. That lineup includes 2 of the best 3-point shooters in the country, in 6'1" point guard Mario Chalmers and 6'6" wing Brandon Rush. And their 6th man is a 5'11" point guard with superior quickness and toughness, in the mold of Kyle Lowry. Oh, and did I mention that the 7th and 8th guys in their rotation are each 6'11"? Thats right, they have two 7-footers coming OFF THE BENCH!
All of that leads to tremendous balance in their offense - 5 guys average in double figures - and while any one of about 6 guys is capable of going off for 30 points in any given game, it is much more likely that they will end up having 3 guys with 15 points instead. They are in the top 10 in the nation in nearly every statistical category that matters - scoring avg, scoring margin, rebounding, fg % defense, turnover margin, steals, blocked shots, etc. Given all of that, it is no wonder that we are 11.5 point underdogs and nobody is giving us a chance. But then again, that is what they said about our Sweet 16 matchup with UNC in 2005 (right after we lost Sumpter) and we gave them all they could handle...
Blue-print for a victory
1. In their 3 losses this season (yes, only 3) Darrell Arthur, their best and most athletic big man, has been saddled with foul trouble. He is not comfortable on defense playing more than 7-8 feet away from the basket. Dante & Pena need to catch the ball in the high post and take it at him aggressively. He is athletic enough to block everything they throw up there but its worth the risk in return for the chance that he picks up a couple quick fouls.
2. More so than Clemson or Siena, these guys like to play up-tempo. If we try to run with them, they will blow us out of the gym. They average over 82 points per game, yet in their 3 losses they have averaged a mere 68. We need to slow it down and keep this game in the 60's.
3. You can't stop everybody, the talent disparity is too great. So Jay has to pick his spots and if I had a vote it would go towards trying to control Mario Chalmers. While Arthur and Rush are probably their best NBA prospects, I happen to think Chalmers is their most valuable player. Chalmers is basically a clone of Scottie Reynolds, and perhaps slightly better. He doesn't score as much as Scottie (mainly due to the team balance), but he's a better shooter (a ridiculous 47% from 3!), a better passer and a much better defender. Like Scottie, he drives hard to the basket off of ball-screens, but moreso than Scottie he looks to dish to slashing cutters and athletic big guys for dunks. Jay will have to come up with a gameplan that includes a committee of defenders and constantly changing schemes (press, traps, hedges, etc) that will hopefully confuse and exhaust Chalmers. The idea is that if you disrupt the point guard, hopefully you can disrupt the entire offense.
4. Play the "Villanova Basketball" that Jay always talks about. In other words, win it with Big East toughness. Beat them to every loose ball, scrap out offensive rebounds, be physical, take charges and never back down. This is one of the few areas where I think we have an edge over Kansas (they rely on talent to win so often that they don't need to play with superior toughness) and we need to take full advantage.
5. This may sound obvious, but the longer we can hang around the better chance we have to take this thing down to the wire. Jay's first order of business has to be withstanding the initial overwhelmingly athletic wave they will throw at us. He has to keep our guys poised and prevent us from getting our doors blown off before the first TV timeout. Once our guys and their guys both realize we can play with them, the psychological effects can be huge. Kansas, and Bill Self in particular, has a history of choking in the tournament and it will be interesting to see how they handle it if their offense stalls a little bit and we are hanging around in the 2nd half. And any of you that watched the Georgetown-Davidson game the other day saw what a little confidence and momentum can do for an underdog playing with nothing to lose.
I didn't really address our offense in this blueprint because its a given that we will need to be clicking on all cylinders, getting to the rim, knocking down 3's, hitting the offensive boards, etc. Likewise, I'm not gonna do the "Category: Edge Team A" because it is all one-sided on paper. Make no mistake, its gonna take our A+ game and Kansas' C- game for us to pull this off. A tall order? Absolutely. Is it impossible? No way, this is March Madness...
Saturday, March 22, 2008
Villanova - Siena Preview
Five things you need to know about the Nova-Siena matchup
1. Walking into the gym, Villanova has an immediate advantage in talent, experience and size. Big East level recruiting is just on a different playing field than the MAAC and Siena doesn't have anybody of the pedigree of Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher or Corey Stokes. That said, Siena plays very good team basketball with great ball movement and streaky shooting. And in the 2nd round of the NCAA tournament you can't take anyone lightly - this is a team that beat 4th seeded Vandy by 20 and is carrying significant momentum and confidence.
2. Siena is a very good 3-point shooting team and that is the thing that worries me most about tomorrow given Nova's defensive struggles at times this season. Perimeter defense will be critical and is the # 1 key to the game in my opinion. Siena's starters shoot well as it is, and then they have a 5'9" 3-point specialist named Tay Fisher that comes off the bench and shoot 45% from behind the arc - our guards will need to keep tabs on him whenever he comes into the game. He was 6 for 6 from behind the arc against Vandy.
3. Siena has a serious lack of size - 6 of their top 8 scorers are guards and their top "big" guys are 6'5" and 6'7". 6'5" sophomore Alex Franklin is athletic enough to compete on the boards, but as a team they are often outrebounded. Nova needs to take advantage on the offensive glass and attack the paint early and often. Scottie & Fisher need to drive the lane and Cunningham and Pena need to get plenty of touches. This is not the game to settle for long jumpers.
4. What Siena lacks in the frontcourt, they make up for in the backcourt. They have lots of good athletic guards and employ a 3 guard offense. 6'3" junior do-it-all guard Kenny Hasbrouck leads the way, while 6'6" sophomore wing Edwin Ubiles is a great shooter and actually leads the team in scoring. Paired with the 3-point specialist Fisher, this trio is very capable of getting hot and lighting it up from outside (just ask Vandy). Point guard Ronald Moore runs the show and is very effective at distributing the ball. The plethora of ball handlers translates to only 11 turnovers per game, 7th best in the country.
5. Similar to Clemson, Siena's guard-oriented attack is best in an up-tempo game. They don't press much, but they will try to run when they get the chance. Nova will need to slow it down somewhat and look to exploit the inherent advantages (talent, size) in the halfcourt set.
Backcourt: Draw (Nova in talent, Siena in depth)
Turnovers: Siena
3-point shooting: Siena
Frontcourt: Nova
Bench: Nova
Rebounding: Nova
Free-throw shooting: Nova 73% (Siena 69%)
Experience: Nova (both teams are young but this is Siena's first NCAA appearance since 2002)
Overall: While no pushover, Siena is not a defensive stalwart so I'm not too concerned about our ability to score. Instead, this game comes down to Nova's ability to defend the perimeter. If we play D like we did against Clemson in the 2nd half, we win. Period. If we allow their guards to penetrate and kick out to open shooters and they get hot, we are in trouble. We don't want to get into a 3-point shootout with these guys cause that negates our advantages. We need to slow it down, play solid D and methodically attack them with penetration and solid ball movement.
Prediction: Siena's 3-point shooting and lack of turnovers keeps them in the game but ultimately their mediocre D can't stop Nova's superior talent down the stretch. Nova wins 72-65!
1. Walking into the gym, Villanova has an immediate advantage in talent, experience and size. Big East level recruiting is just on a different playing field than the MAAC and Siena doesn't have anybody of the pedigree of Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher or Corey Stokes. That said, Siena plays very good team basketball with great ball movement and streaky shooting. And in the 2nd round of the NCAA tournament you can't take anyone lightly - this is a team that beat 4th seeded Vandy by 20 and is carrying significant momentum and confidence.
2. Siena is a very good 3-point shooting team and that is the thing that worries me most about tomorrow given Nova's defensive struggles at times this season. Perimeter defense will be critical and is the # 1 key to the game in my opinion. Siena's starters shoot well as it is, and then they have a 5'9" 3-point specialist named Tay Fisher that comes off the bench and shoot 45% from behind the arc - our guards will need to keep tabs on him whenever he comes into the game. He was 6 for 6 from behind the arc against Vandy.
3. Siena has a serious lack of size - 6 of their top 8 scorers are guards and their top "big" guys are 6'5" and 6'7". 6'5" sophomore Alex Franklin is athletic enough to compete on the boards, but as a team they are often outrebounded. Nova needs to take advantage on the offensive glass and attack the paint early and often. Scottie & Fisher need to drive the lane and Cunningham and Pena need to get plenty of touches. This is not the game to settle for long jumpers.
4. What Siena lacks in the frontcourt, they make up for in the backcourt. They have lots of good athletic guards and employ a 3 guard offense. 6'3" junior do-it-all guard Kenny Hasbrouck leads the way, while 6'6" sophomore wing Edwin Ubiles is a great shooter and actually leads the team in scoring. Paired with the 3-point specialist Fisher, this trio is very capable of getting hot and lighting it up from outside (just ask Vandy). Point guard Ronald Moore runs the show and is very effective at distributing the ball. The plethora of ball handlers translates to only 11 turnovers per game, 7th best in the country.
5. Similar to Clemson, Siena's guard-oriented attack is best in an up-tempo game. They don't press much, but they will try to run when they get the chance. Nova will need to slow it down somewhat and look to exploit the inherent advantages (talent, size) in the halfcourt set.
Backcourt: Draw (Nova in talent, Siena in depth)
Turnovers: Siena
3-point shooting: Siena
Frontcourt: Nova
Bench: Nova
Rebounding: Nova
Free-throw shooting: Nova 73% (Siena 69%)
Experience: Nova (both teams are young but this is Siena's first NCAA appearance since 2002)
Overall: While no pushover, Siena is not a defensive stalwart so I'm not too concerned about our ability to score. Instead, this game comes down to Nova's ability to defend the perimeter. If we play D like we did against Clemson in the 2nd half, we win. Period. If we allow their guards to penetrate and kick out to open shooters and they get hot, we are in trouble. We don't want to get into a 3-point shootout with these guys cause that negates our advantages. We need to slow it down, play solid D and methodically attack them with penetration and solid ball movement.
Prediction: Siena's 3-point shooting and lack of turnovers keeps them in the game but ultimately their mediocre D can't stop Nova's superior talent down the stretch. Nova wins 72-65!
Friday, March 21, 2008
Villanova - Clemson preview
Admittedly, I have not seen many Clemson games this year but my initial reaction to the matchup was positive:
1. ACC = up-tempo but limited defense and a bit soft (compared to the Big East)
2. Clemson may be overseeded due to their ACC tournament run
3. We have just as much talent (if not more) on our roster.
4. They press - but it is very beatable.
I still believe those things, but after doing a little more research I have to give them more credit than I initially thought. They are very good and if we don't come out with our A game, they may very well run us out of the gym. In many ways, they are a slightly lesser version of what I hope our team becomes next year (I think we can do better than a 5 seed). That said, they do have a lot of flaws and the way Nova has been playing the last month or so, I think we will be right in this thing. Essentially they are pretty evenly matched teams - it just comes down to consistency - Clemson plays well almost every night while Nova is still learning how to do that (and sometimes plays flat out terribly) - and that is the difference in the seeding. If both teams play well, we are in for a classic 5-12 barn burner.
Here are my keys to the game:
Handle the pressure
Clemson runs 10 deep, they are very athletic and they have 4 quality guards they can run at you so they tend to press all game long and they create a lot of turnovers. That said, this can also be a weakness if the opposing guards know how to exploit it. North Carolina ran thru and around the press on the way to a win in the ACC tourney final. Our guards are good enough to be able to do this but they will have to be smart and patient. Corey Fisher will be a huge factor giving Scottie some help in the backcourt. Corey appears to have lost some confidence in his shot lately and his minutes have been dwindling, but he is perhaps our best ballhandler. We need him to contribute some quality minutes to take some pressure off of Scottie. If not, Scottie will be doing all the work to bring the ball up against the press, AND will be expected to do the bulk of the scoring - not a good combo. In addition to Fisher, I expect Jay to come up with a gameplan that employs a lot of Stokes, Anderson, Pena, Cunningham & Clark in the backcourt helping to break the press with effective cutting and passing.
Control Tempo
Clemson would love to play this game in the 80's while I'm sure Jay would prefer to keep it in the 60's. ACC teams in general like to run and play up-tempo and Clemson's press helps facilitate that kind of game. They create turnovers and try to fast break and when it doesn't work the opponent breaks the press and goes right to the basket - either way it leads to an up-tempo style of play which suits Clemson well. This is my biggest concern tomorrow, cause we all know how Scottie likes to go hard to the basket whenever he can. In my opinion, doing this immediately after breaking the press is a mistake against this team cause you are essentially trying to beat them at their own game. I'd prefer we break the press and then slow it down into a half-court offensive set and attack the D with our ball-screens and dribble penetration. Half-court Defense is one of Clemson's weaker points and having played against plenty of tough Big East defenses, I think the Cats can exploit this for open looks. Hopefully Stokes, Scottie, Fisher & Anderson are knocking them down tomorrow night so we can avoid the scoring droughts we sometimes encounter.
Foul Trouble
Obviously both teams want to stay out of foul trouble, but I think it is most critical for Reynolds, Cunningham & Anderson. Reynolds mainly because we lack a scoring punch when he's not out there. But I've also noticed that we play a lot better when Cunningham and Anderson are on the floor and that when we get into those early holes down 11 or 12 in the first half it is usually because either Dante or Dwayne is sitting on the bench with 2 first half fouls. And obviously if we can get the Clemson big guys in foul trouble that is always helpful.
Defense
Clemson has 5 guys averaging in double figures and a 6th at 8.6 points per game. 4 of those 6 guys are guards, 3 of which can really shoot it from beyond the 3-point arc (especially Oglesby). Perimeter defense will be critical. Does the Nova team that gave up 17 3's to Georgetown last week show up or the one that held Georgetown (the first time), UConn and West Virginia to a combined 25% from beyond the arc? The next key is stopping the penetration of KC Rivers and Cliff Hammonds - those are the guys that make the Clemson offense go. The Nova backcourt will expend a lot of energy breaking the Clemson press - will they have enough energy to defend effectively on the other end? Jay will have to utilize smart substitution patterns to get the most out of his guys.
Rebounding
Clemson doesnt have anyone that will tower over our guys (like Hibbert or Randolph Morris at Kentucky last year), but they are a good rebounding team because they have some bangers underneath and they get some help from their guards. Trevor Booker is a 6'7" 240lb linebacker-type power forward who is capable of being very effective. He had 6 blocks last week against national player of the year Tyler Hansbrough and UNC. 6'9" James Mays is another guy who does the dirty work down low. Cunningham, Pena and hopefully Drummond will have their hands full and they need to really focus on defensive rebounds - we can't afford to give Clemson 2nd chance opportunities.
Advantages:
Backcourt: Slight edge Nova
Frontcourt: Slight edge Clemson
Bench: Nova
Rebounding: Clemson
Free-throw shooting: Huge edge Nova (Clemson 62%)
Experience: Draw (Clemson is an older team but its their first NCAA appearance since 1998, while Nova is young but has a few guys making their 3rd straight NCAA appearance.
Overall
I like the matchup because I think it puts all the pressure on our backcourt, which I think is the strength of this team. Clemson's press and how we handle it will dictate everything in this game from tempo, to open 3-point looks, to foul trouble to our defense. Our guys are talented enough and tough enough to handle it effectively, but I worry about whether they are mature enough and patient enough to execute consistently under constant duress. Next year I think this Nova squad wins this game relatively easily, but are they too young to pull it off this year? Jay needs to do a good job of in-game x's and o's coaching (not his strength) to put the guys in a good position to execute.
My Prediction
Both teams start out a little sluggish offensively - Nova because they are getting used to the Clemson press and Clemson because they are a little tight having no NCAA experience on the roster. Both teams settle down in the 2nd half but the game remains tight down to the wire. Foul trouble, shot selection and free throws are HUGE down the stretch and...(call me a homer, but)...Nova pulls the upset 71-68!
1. ACC = up-tempo but limited defense and a bit soft (compared to the Big East)
2. Clemson may be overseeded due to their ACC tournament run
3. We have just as much talent (if not more) on our roster.
4. They press - but it is very beatable.
I still believe those things, but after doing a little more research I have to give them more credit than I initially thought. They are very good and if we don't come out with our A game, they may very well run us out of the gym. In many ways, they are a slightly lesser version of what I hope our team becomes next year (I think we can do better than a 5 seed). That said, they do have a lot of flaws and the way Nova has been playing the last month or so, I think we will be right in this thing. Essentially they are pretty evenly matched teams - it just comes down to consistency - Clemson plays well almost every night while Nova is still learning how to do that (and sometimes plays flat out terribly) - and that is the difference in the seeding. If both teams play well, we are in for a classic 5-12 barn burner.
Here are my keys to the game:
Handle the pressure
Clemson runs 10 deep, they are very athletic and they have 4 quality guards they can run at you so they tend to press all game long and they create a lot of turnovers. That said, this can also be a weakness if the opposing guards know how to exploit it. North Carolina ran thru and around the press on the way to a win in the ACC tourney final. Our guards are good enough to be able to do this but they will have to be smart and patient. Corey Fisher will be a huge factor giving Scottie some help in the backcourt. Corey appears to have lost some confidence in his shot lately and his minutes have been dwindling, but he is perhaps our best ballhandler. We need him to contribute some quality minutes to take some pressure off of Scottie. If not, Scottie will be doing all the work to bring the ball up against the press, AND will be expected to do the bulk of the scoring - not a good combo. In addition to Fisher, I expect Jay to come up with a gameplan that employs a lot of Stokes, Anderson, Pena, Cunningham & Clark in the backcourt helping to break the press with effective cutting and passing.
Control Tempo
Clemson would love to play this game in the 80's while I'm sure Jay would prefer to keep it in the 60's. ACC teams in general like to run and play up-tempo and Clemson's press helps facilitate that kind of game. They create turnovers and try to fast break and when it doesn't work the opponent breaks the press and goes right to the basket - either way it leads to an up-tempo style of play which suits Clemson well. This is my biggest concern tomorrow, cause we all know how Scottie likes to go hard to the basket whenever he can. In my opinion, doing this immediately after breaking the press is a mistake against this team cause you are essentially trying to beat them at their own game. I'd prefer we break the press and then slow it down into a half-court offensive set and attack the D with our ball-screens and dribble penetration. Half-court Defense is one of Clemson's weaker points and having played against plenty of tough Big East defenses, I think the Cats can exploit this for open looks. Hopefully Stokes, Scottie, Fisher & Anderson are knocking them down tomorrow night so we can avoid the scoring droughts we sometimes encounter.
Foul Trouble
Obviously both teams want to stay out of foul trouble, but I think it is most critical for Reynolds, Cunningham & Anderson. Reynolds mainly because we lack a scoring punch when he's not out there. But I've also noticed that we play a lot better when Cunningham and Anderson are on the floor and that when we get into those early holes down 11 or 12 in the first half it is usually because either Dante or Dwayne is sitting on the bench with 2 first half fouls. And obviously if we can get the Clemson big guys in foul trouble that is always helpful.
Defense
Clemson has 5 guys averaging in double figures and a 6th at 8.6 points per game. 4 of those 6 guys are guards, 3 of which can really shoot it from beyond the 3-point arc (especially Oglesby). Perimeter defense will be critical. Does the Nova team that gave up 17 3's to Georgetown last week show up or the one that held Georgetown (the first time), UConn and West Virginia to a combined 25% from beyond the arc? The next key is stopping the penetration of KC Rivers and Cliff Hammonds - those are the guys that make the Clemson offense go. The Nova backcourt will expend a lot of energy breaking the Clemson press - will they have enough energy to defend effectively on the other end? Jay will have to utilize smart substitution patterns to get the most out of his guys.
Rebounding
Clemson doesnt have anyone that will tower over our guys (like Hibbert or Randolph Morris at Kentucky last year), but they are a good rebounding team because they have some bangers underneath and they get some help from their guards. Trevor Booker is a 6'7" 240lb linebacker-type power forward who is capable of being very effective. He had 6 blocks last week against national player of the year Tyler Hansbrough and UNC. 6'9" James Mays is another guy who does the dirty work down low. Cunningham, Pena and hopefully Drummond will have their hands full and they need to really focus on defensive rebounds - we can't afford to give Clemson 2nd chance opportunities.
Advantages:
Backcourt: Slight edge Nova
Frontcourt: Slight edge Clemson
Bench: Nova
Rebounding: Clemson
Free-throw shooting: Huge edge Nova (Clemson 62%)
Experience: Draw (Clemson is an older team but its their first NCAA appearance since 1998, while Nova is young but has a few guys making their 3rd straight NCAA appearance.
Overall
I like the matchup because I think it puts all the pressure on our backcourt, which I think is the strength of this team. Clemson's press and how we handle it will dictate everything in this game from tempo, to open 3-point looks, to foul trouble to our defense. Our guys are talented enough and tough enough to handle it effectively, but I worry about whether they are mature enough and patient enough to execute consistently under constant duress. Next year I think this Nova squad wins this game relatively easily, but are they too young to pull it off this year? Jay needs to do a good job of in-game x's and o's coaching (not his strength) to put the guys in a good position to execute.
My Prediction
Both teams start out a little sluggish offensively - Nova because they are getting used to the Clemson press and Clemson because they are a little tight having no NCAA experience on the roster. Both teams settle down in the 2nd half but the game remains tight down to the wire. Foul trouble, shot selection and free throws are HUGE down the stretch and...(call me a homer, but)...Nova pulls the upset 71-68!
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Nova slump analysis
Most Villanova fans probably hit the panic button about a week ago and rightfully so, as this team has lost 5 in a row by double digits and has displayed an alarming lack of heart lately. The team is clearly struggling right now and it seems to be in all facets of the game - offense, defense, rebounding, turnovers, etc. So what is going on? Two weeks ago we were # 18 in the country, has Jay completely forgotten how to coach since then? Highly unlikely. There is something else going on here - there's got to be - there's no other explanation for it. Even the bad Lappas teams didn't lose to St. Joe's by 20. One rumored explanation is team chemistry issues - that guys are unhappy with their playing time and its causing a rift between teammates. Its certainly possible and could be part of it, but Jay has shown a great ability to keep team morale high so I give him the benefit of the doubt there. I have another theory, based not on any inside info or insight, but solely on my own analysis of recent games and Jay's public comments.
Win or Lose, we will do things the Wright way
While I don't think Jay is intentionally losing games, I do think he is more concerned with getting guys to play the way he wants them to play than he is with winning at the moment. Ideally, all of your players would do exactly what you expect of them AND you'd still win, but I think in this case that is not happening and Jay has chosen to emphasize the WAY they play over winning. In other words, I think that Jay's primary goal is to teach these young guys a lesson and develop them into better players down the road, even at the expense of winning games now. Call it mortgaging this season if you will, for the benefit of next season. He'd never say that publicly, but I think that is what is happening. I think coming into the season, his goal was to balance winning and teaching. He is failing at that, so forced to choose one or the other, he is leaning toward teaching.
If he was only concerned with winning, I think he'd primarily play a 7-man rotation of Fisher, Reynolds, Stokes, Dante, and Drum with Grant and Pena getting big minutes off the bench - and the team would be much better than they are right now - maybe even an NCAA team. But those 7 players include 4 freshman and 2 sophomores and I think Jay realizes that they won't reach their potential down the road unless he makes them do things his way and really develops every aspect of their respective games. So instead, guys like Redding and Anderson who are less talented but have bought into the defense/hustle "team" concept get big minutes while Jay sits the younger guys, hopefully driving the point home of what earns playing time.
For Jay the question has become, Do you play the older less talented guy who plays the right way or the young talented stud who does not? The older less talented guys seem to be overmatched by Big East competition and you are losing games as a result. But if you reward the young stud with playing time before he's earned it, you lose all credibility as a coach - the stud might never listen after that and then where are you? Its a tough spot, but it appears that Jay has chosen the former.
For the players, I liken it to going overseas to study abroad and having the option to take your courses in english or in german. Sure, you could take the easy way out, take your courses in english, get by with reasonably good grades, but not really challenge yourself. Or you could enroll in classes that are taught exclusively in german, you'd probably struggle a lot at first, but you'd pick it up gradually and in the end you'd have a more well-rounded skillset. But you have to have the right attitude to be willing to invest in your own personal development and have a desire to improve your skills. I think that is what Jay is trying to do here, especially with the young guys. They all know how to score (english) and they probably think they are complete players, and quite frankly with their talent he could probably let them just go out and play their way and they'd do reasonably well - but they would never reach their full potential. Instead, Jay is trying to teach them the foreign language of his complex defensive rotations and get them to buy into the hustle and effort intagibles that he requires - and its certainly a challenge cause some of these kids have been told since they were 10 years old how great they are. Its a process of breaking down their bad habits and attitudes and then building them back up.
Teaching techniques
If you watch closely, you can see this approach in Jay's substitution patterns, in his interactions with players and if you read between the lines, even in his comments to the media. Earlier in the season, Jay's substitution patterns drove me nuts - there appeared to be no rhyme or reason and guys would sub in the game only to be yanked out 20 seconds later after a defensive lapse. I now realize that he has probably been teaching all along - its just that earlier in the season we were playing competition that we could beat while he taught, so it wasn't as noticeable.
A quick check of the boxscore shows that there were 27 first half substitutions against Syracuse on Saturday. 27 in 20 minutes! Thats a sub every 44 seconds! How are the guys on the court supposed to get in any sort of game flow or develop a rythm playing together or identify who's got the hot hand, if the lineup changes every 44 seconds?! Well, the answer is - they're not, because if my theory is right then Jay is more concerned with teaching than rythm or flow - so he'd rather yank a guy after a defensive lapse or a lack of hustle to take the opportunity to teach him or drive the point home that those qualities are what earn playing time. Similarly, last night against St. Joe's there were 22 first half substitutions, including one point where there were 8 subs in a 2 minute span. Anybody who's primary concern is winning the game, does not coach like that. Its the kind of coaching you see in exhibition games or scrimmages, in other words, teaching environments. In addition, when guys come out of the game, Jay doesn't yell at them nearly as often as he has done with other teams - he instead takes a few seconds to make his point in their ear. But we haven't seen the good ole crazy psycho Jay on the sidelines much lately. Instead he has been very calm, like he expects the mistakes and he knows that this is just the teaching process that this team needs to go through.
Lack of Leadership & Experience
I, for one, completely underestimated the huge factor that inexperience and lack of leadership would play in this team's success. I figured the team would struggle early as Jay instilled his values on the team, but that most of the kinks would be worked out by January. I figured maybe our youth would cost us a game or two down the stretch, but I certainly didn't expect a losing streak like this where they get blown out every game. But its clear that this team just hasn't clicked yet or gotten comfortable in its own proverbial skin. A big part of that is a lack of leadership on the court. This team doesn't have a consummate hustle guy to set an example like Mike Nardi or a "quarterback of the defense" who is always talking and directing people into the right spots like Will Sheridan.
Here is a post-game quote from the Syracuse game on Saturday:
"We talk about it all the time," Jay Wright said. "Energy can't come from making shots. When we made shots, we played hard on defense. When we started missing shots, we lost that toughness defensively."
That points to the youth and lack of leadership factors and the fact that guys aren't playing hard every possesssion.
And one from after the St. Joe's debacle:
"We'll be all right," Wright said. "Right now, when you lose a game like that, everybody's hurting. But a little bit of humility is not bad for anybody right now, me included. We have a lot of work to do, but we'll be fine."
Maybe I am reading into this a little bit, but I hear the "humility is not bad for anybody right now" part as Jay saying that until they start playing his way, they are not going to win games and maybe some guys need to be convinced of that so that they totally buy into what he is preaching.
No excuse for Jay
All of that said, as a die-hard fan I am not willing to give Jay a free pass on this season and allow him to hide behind the youth and inexperience factors. I mean, this team has real talent - two McDonald's All-Americans and several other highly rated players - enough so that a lot of smart college hoops insiders looked at this team in October and decided it was a Top 25 team. Now, granted Jay said back then "we are a year away" and that remains to be seen, but there's got to be a better way of balancing the winning now vs. development for the future equation. Look at Florida for example - they lost 4 NBA players, have no senior leadership either and they start 4 freshmen, yet they are coming on strong at the right time. So it is do-able. But Jay has some major issues to work out before this team turns the corner.
What he needs to fix
The defense has been atrocious all year and that is probably the part of Jay's system that is toughest for young guys to pick up, so that is not totally unexpected. Its not so much the literal defensive rotations that are most difficult, although they are complex, but more so the attitude necessary to be "excited" to give maximum defensive effort on every possession. It is a way of thinking and a sense of team pride - and that is a foreign concept to many of these stud high school players who are now our freshmen. Defensive effort has been the main reason given for why guys like Malcolm Grant and Corey Stokes are not getting more playing time. And I can see rewarding guys like Redding and Anderson who hustle and give maximum defensive effort in order to make a point to the young guys. But at some point you have to give Grant and Stokes some extended playing time and allow them to make mistakes without fear of getting yanked out of the game. Jay has been doing this more and more with Stokes lately, but Grant only played 1 minute last night. I am wondering if there is a serious attitude problem here that Jay is trying to correct or if Malcolm hasn't bought into the defense/hustle portion of the program cause he thinks he's already a stud at this level or if maybe he told Jay to go F himself or something and is being punished accordingly. Not much else makes sense.
The offense is now equally bad. Part of that is the odd substitution patterns I mentioned above. But lately, everybody tends to stand around on the perimeter and watch, especially when Scottie has the ball. There might be a ball-screen, but in general the guards wait for a pass on the wings and the big men call for a pass in the post. There is very little cutting through the lane or along the baseline to make the defense work to stay with their man. Jay's free-wheeling "take him" offense that the teams of the last couple years used clearly isn't working for this young team. Jay needs to draw up some specific screens and cuts to get things moving out there.
The team also seems to have a lack of general toughness, which has been a strength in years past. How many times have you seen our guards drive hard to the basket with a vengeance this season? Guys like Kyle Lowry, Randy Foye and even Scottie Reynolds last year made it a regular habit and it completely set the tone for the rest of the game. Now our guards are generally playing soft - content to settle for outside jumpers instead of challenging the heart of the defense (which makes us pretty easy to defend). Even if we were to get called for a charge, its sets a tone that says "this is gonna be a physical battle and you are gonna have to work to stop us." And that kind of stuff is contagious. On the defensive end, how many basket "AND 1's" have we given up lately? Too many to count if you ask me. There is a direct correlation to toughness there. I mean, if you are gonna foul the guy while he's shooting, you might as well hack his arm off or knock him down so he doesn't make the shot. Good, tough teams give hard fouls. Our guys tend to get called for these ticky tack bumps that barely seem to affect the shooters. This is not something that develops overnight - it takes good leadership both from the coaching staff and the veteran players to instill these qualities in the young guys.
Hope for the future?
All of that said, I'm still confident that our current senior-less roster will produce a good team before anyone graduates. Maybe not the Final Four I predicted for next year, but at some point they will get it and it will translate into a very good team. That could happen as early as next month with a strong NIT run or maybe not until the middle of next season, but at some point everything will start to click - there is just too much raw talent and Jay is too good a coach for it not to. It took Foye, Ray, Sumpter and Fraser two and a half injury-prone seasons going through much of the same stuff. (Foye almost transferred in the middle of his soph year before finally deciding to buy completely into Jay's system). So while the last couple weeks have certainly been frustrating and its disappointing as a fan to have your NCAA hopes pulled out from under you so quickly, hopefully Jay's approach will pay off down the road.
Win or Lose, we will do things the Wright way
While I don't think Jay is intentionally losing games, I do think he is more concerned with getting guys to play the way he wants them to play than he is with winning at the moment. Ideally, all of your players would do exactly what you expect of them AND you'd still win, but I think in this case that is not happening and Jay has chosen to emphasize the WAY they play over winning. In other words, I think that Jay's primary goal is to teach these young guys a lesson and develop them into better players down the road, even at the expense of winning games now. Call it mortgaging this season if you will, for the benefit of next season. He'd never say that publicly, but I think that is what is happening. I think coming into the season, his goal was to balance winning and teaching. He is failing at that, so forced to choose one or the other, he is leaning toward teaching.
If he was only concerned with winning, I think he'd primarily play a 7-man rotation of Fisher, Reynolds, Stokes, Dante, and Drum with Grant and Pena getting big minutes off the bench - and the team would be much better than they are right now - maybe even an NCAA team. But those 7 players include 4 freshman and 2 sophomores and I think Jay realizes that they won't reach their potential down the road unless he makes them do things his way and really develops every aspect of their respective games. So instead, guys like Redding and Anderson who are less talented but have bought into the defense/hustle "team" concept get big minutes while Jay sits the younger guys, hopefully driving the point home of what earns playing time.
For Jay the question has become, Do you play the older less talented guy who plays the right way or the young talented stud who does not? The older less talented guys seem to be overmatched by Big East competition and you are losing games as a result. But if you reward the young stud with playing time before he's earned it, you lose all credibility as a coach - the stud might never listen after that and then where are you? Its a tough spot, but it appears that Jay has chosen the former.
For the players, I liken it to going overseas to study abroad and having the option to take your courses in english or in german. Sure, you could take the easy way out, take your courses in english, get by with reasonably good grades, but not really challenge yourself. Or you could enroll in classes that are taught exclusively in german, you'd probably struggle a lot at first, but you'd pick it up gradually and in the end you'd have a more well-rounded skillset. But you have to have the right attitude to be willing to invest in your own personal development and have a desire to improve your skills. I think that is what Jay is trying to do here, especially with the young guys. They all know how to score (english) and they probably think they are complete players, and quite frankly with their talent he could probably let them just go out and play their way and they'd do reasonably well - but they would never reach their full potential. Instead, Jay is trying to teach them the foreign language of his complex defensive rotations and get them to buy into the hustle and effort intagibles that he requires - and its certainly a challenge cause some of these kids have been told since they were 10 years old how great they are. Its a process of breaking down their bad habits and attitudes and then building them back up.
Teaching techniques
If you watch closely, you can see this approach in Jay's substitution patterns, in his interactions with players and if you read between the lines, even in his comments to the media. Earlier in the season, Jay's substitution patterns drove me nuts - there appeared to be no rhyme or reason and guys would sub in the game only to be yanked out 20 seconds later after a defensive lapse. I now realize that he has probably been teaching all along - its just that earlier in the season we were playing competition that we could beat while he taught, so it wasn't as noticeable.
A quick check of the boxscore shows that there were 27 first half substitutions against Syracuse on Saturday. 27 in 20 minutes! Thats a sub every 44 seconds! How are the guys on the court supposed to get in any sort of game flow or develop a rythm playing together or identify who's got the hot hand, if the lineup changes every 44 seconds?! Well, the answer is - they're not, because if my theory is right then Jay is more concerned with teaching than rythm or flow - so he'd rather yank a guy after a defensive lapse or a lack of hustle to take the opportunity to teach him or drive the point home that those qualities are what earn playing time. Similarly, last night against St. Joe's there were 22 first half substitutions, including one point where there were 8 subs in a 2 minute span. Anybody who's primary concern is winning the game, does not coach like that. Its the kind of coaching you see in exhibition games or scrimmages, in other words, teaching environments. In addition, when guys come out of the game, Jay doesn't yell at them nearly as often as he has done with other teams - he instead takes a few seconds to make his point in their ear. But we haven't seen the good ole crazy psycho Jay on the sidelines much lately. Instead he has been very calm, like he expects the mistakes and he knows that this is just the teaching process that this team needs to go through.
Lack of Leadership & Experience
I, for one, completely underestimated the huge factor that inexperience and lack of leadership would play in this team's success. I figured the team would struggle early as Jay instilled his values on the team, but that most of the kinks would be worked out by January. I figured maybe our youth would cost us a game or two down the stretch, but I certainly didn't expect a losing streak like this where they get blown out every game. But its clear that this team just hasn't clicked yet or gotten comfortable in its own proverbial skin. A big part of that is a lack of leadership on the court. This team doesn't have a consummate hustle guy to set an example like Mike Nardi or a "quarterback of the defense" who is always talking and directing people into the right spots like Will Sheridan.
Here is a post-game quote from the Syracuse game on Saturday:
"We talk about it all the time," Jay Wright said. "Energy can't come from making shots. When we made shots, we played hard on defense. When we started missing shots, we lost that toughness defensively."
That points to the youth and lack of leadership factors and the fact that guys aren't playing hard every possesssion.
And one from after the St. Joe's debacle:
"We'll be all right," Wright said. "Right now, when you lose a game like that, everybody's hurting. But a little bit of humility is not bad for anybody right now, me included. We have a lot of work to do, but we'll be fine."
Maybe I am reading into this a little bit, but I hear the "humility is not bad for anybody right now" part as Jay saying that until they start playing his way, they are not going to win games and maybe some guys need to be convinced of that so that they totally buy into what he is preaching.
No excuse for Jay
All of that said, as a die-hard fan I am not willing to give Jay a free pass on this season and allow him to hide behind the youth and inexperience factors. I mean, this team has real talent - two McDonald's All-Americans and several other highly rated players - enough so that a lot of smart college hoops insiders looked at this team in October and decided it was a Top 25 team. Now, granted Jay said back then "we are a year away" and that remains to be seen, but there's got to be a better way of balancing the winning now vs. development for the future equation. Look at Florida for example - they lost 4 NBA players, have no senior leadership either and they start 4 freshmen, yet they are coming on strong at the right time. So it is do-able. But Jay has some major issues to work out before this team turns the corner.
What he needs to fix
The defense has been atrocious all year and that is probably the part of Jay's system that is toughest for young guys to pick up, so that is not totally unexpected. Its not so much the literal defensive rotations that are most difficult, although they are complex, but more so the attitude necessary to be "excited" to give maximum defensive effort on every possession. It is a way of thinking and a sense of team pride - and that is a foreign concept to many of these stud high school players who are now our freshmen. Defensive effort has been the main reason given for why guys like Malcolm Grant and Corey Stokes are not getting more playing time. And I can see rewarding guys like Redding and Anderson who hustle and give maximum defensive effort in order to make a point to the young guys. But at some point you have to give Grant and Stokes some extended playing time and allow them to make mistakes without fear of getting yanked out of the game. Jay has been doing this more and more with Stokes lately, but Grant only played 1 minute last night. I am wondering if there is a serious attitude problem here that Jay is trying to correct or if Malcolm hasn't bought into the defense/hustle portion of the program cause he thinks he's already a stud at this level or if maybe he told Jay to go F himself or something and is being punished accordingly. Not much else makes sense.
The offense is now equally bad. Part of that is the odd substitution patterns I mentioned above. But lately, everybody tends to stand around on the perimeter and watch, especially when Scottie has the ball. There might be a ball-screen, but in general the guards wait for a pass on the wings and the big men call for a pass in the post. There is very little cutting through the lane or along the baseline to make the defense work to stay with their man. Jay's free-wheeling "take him" offense that the teams of the last couple years used clearly isn't working for this young team. Jay needs to draw up some specific screens and cuts to get things moving out there.
The team also seems to have a lack of general toughness, which has been a strength in years past. How many times have you seen our guards drive hard to the basket with a vengeance this season? Guys like Kyle Lowry, Randy Foye and even Scottie Reynolds last year made it a regular habit and it completely set the tone for the rest of the game. Now our guards are generally playing soft - content to settle for outside jumpers instead of challenging the heart of the defense (which makes us pretty easy to defend). Even if we were to get called for a charge, its sets a tone that says "this is gonna be a physical battle and you are gonna have to work to stop us." And that kind of stuff is contagious. On the defensive end, how many basket "AND 1's" have we given up lately? Too many to count if you ask me. There is a direct correlation to toughness there. I mean, if you are gonna foul the guy while he's shooting, you might as well hack his arm off or knock him down so he doesn't make the shot. Good, tough teams give hard fouls. Our guys tend to get called for these ticky tack bumps that barely seem to affect the shooters. This is not something that develops overnight - it takes good leadership both from the coaching staff and the veteran players to instill these qualities in the young guys.
Hope for the future?
All of that said, I'm still confident that our current senior-less roster will produce a good team before anyone graduates. Maybe not the Final Four I predicted for next year, but at some point they will get it and it will translate into a very good team. That could happen as early as next month with a strong NIT run or maybe not until the middle of next season, but at some point everything will start to click - there is just too much raw talent and Jay is too good a coach for it not to. It took Foye, Ray, Sumpter and Fraser two and a half injury-prone seasons going through much of the same stuff. (Foye almost transferred in the middle of his soph year before finally deciding to buy completely into Jay's system). So while the last couple weeks have certainly been frustrating and its disappointing as a fan to have your NCAA hopes pulled out from under you so quickly, hopefully Jay's approach will pay off down the road.
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