BRING ON THE DUKIES!
I didn't mention it last week so as not to jinx us, but one of the reasons I liked our bracket draw so much (in addition to an absence of size) was because I LOVE this matchup against Duke. Given the opponent, the national stage and whats on the line, it would easily be the biggest win of the Jay Wright era if the Cats can pull it off. Don't get me wrong - Duke is an excellent basketball team and with different personnel I wouldn't want to play them, but I happen to think that this Villanova team matches up with them almost perfectly. They are almost mirror images of each other - both teams have excellent perimeter-oriented players complemented by an undersized big guy that can step out and shoot the jumper. Duke probably has more raw talent in that they have 2 guys on the roster that could be NBA lottery picks in June (Gerald Henderson reminds me of Randy Foye and Kyle Singler reminds me of pre-injury Curtis Sumpter) - and those guys will be awfully tough to stop. Reggie Redding, Dwayne Anderson and Shane Clark will have their hands full defensively. The Blue Devils love to get out in transition, shoot threes and turn games into perimeter oriented shootouts, which is where they excel. Coach K basically rose to prominence in the mid-1980s by exploiting the 3-point shot - finding ways to get guys open and hammering teams with 3 after 3. This team is no different - they've easily got half a dozen guys, led by John Scheyer, who can knock down the open 3-point shot at any time - and in transition is when they are most dangerous. And with the exception of perhaps UNC, Duke may be the most difficult team in the country to beat at their own game.
So, you ask, why do I love this matchup so much? One intangible - TOUGHNESS. Coming from the Big East, Nova excels in this area and if our guys can set the tone early that this is gonna be a physical Big East style battle, I think it neutralizes any advantages that Duke has in terms of talent or coaching. That means Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher taking it right at them, driving to the hoop rather than settling for jumpers, Dwayne, Shane and Dante crashing the offensive boards, beating them to every loose ball and giving "clean but hard" fouls anytime one of their guys drives the lane. This "punch them in the mouth and see how they respond" approach worked beautifully against UCLA - they were completely stunned and never recovered. Check out these post-game quotes from the UCLA game:
1. Reggie Redding: "We pride ourselves on coming out and setting the tone and letting them know they're going to be in for a battle."
2. Dante Cunningham: "We learned something from that Kansas game last year. It's something we take pride in, not letting a team just come down the lane and start dunking the ball."
3. UCLA point guard Darren Collison: "I was talking to the officials because I thought they were fouling too hard," Collison said. "They were a physical team."
Now Duke is a far better team than UCLA so they probably won't wilt as easily as the Bruins did, but what most people aren't talking about this week is that the Dukies are a little bit soft. They cover it up with plenty of talent and 3-point shooting, but the truth is that they play a finesse type of game with lots of running and shooting, but very little challenging the rim, battling on the boards or hardnosed D. Sure, they have the sons of former NBA players (Gerald Henderson, Nolan Smith) and offensively prowessed kids who grew up in the suburbs (Scheyer, Singler, Paulus), but if this turns into a scrappy Big East style streetfight where defense, toughness and hustle are paramount, I'd rather have inner city guys like Reggie Redding, Shane Clark and Corey Fisher on my side. All of that said, the toughness factor merely evens the playing field in this game. It won't be enough to overcome turnovers, poor decisions on offense and leaving Duke open for 3. All of that has to be there too in addition to toughness for us to win this thing, but as far as Sweet 16 matchups go I like our chances.
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Villanova March Madness Preview
Bracket Thoughts
I love the #3 seed (mainly cause it keeps us as far away from the #1's as possible) and the fact that we are playing in Philly, but make no mistake - this will be no cakewalk. Every team in our pod this weekend is a tough, experienced, defensive-minded team that knows how to win close games. On the bright side, we didn't draw anybody with a superior size advantage, which should help keep Cunningham out of foul trouble (the # 1 key to our success).
AMERICAN
American starts 5 seniors, has quality guards and NCAA experience from last year when they were tied with #2 seed Tennessee with five minutes to play. Did I mention they are one of the top 3-point shooting % teams in the tournament and held teams to a mere 58 points per game this season? Pretty much a perfect recipe to be a Cinderella. That said, they don't come close to our talent level and their starting backcourt contains two guys that are about 5'8" and 5'10", so they will have to play near-perfect basketball to beat us. But if you don't think thats possible, then you don't know March Madness. Jay needs to set the defensive tone early and then let our guys do their thing on offense - I think we have too much talent and size for them to keep us from scoring. But if we let them knock down open 3s and hang around, the pressure will build on us.
The Anti-jinx disclaimer:
IF we are lucky enough to get by American, our 2nd round opponent will either be UCLA or VCU.
UCLA
UCLA is an underrated 6-seed. They aren't as good as last year when they were a 1 seed but they still probably should've been a 4 or a 5 seed. They have 3 very good seniors in Collison, Shipp and Aboya who have played in the last 3 Final Fours, so they have more NCAA tournament experience than any team in the entire field. They like to slow it down, play tough D and methodically pick you apart - as a result they lead the nation in field goal percentage. Darren Collison is one of the best perimeter defenders in the country and the thought of him harrassing Scottie Reynolds all game does not sound fun. (If you want to know what excellent perimeter D can do to Scottie, take a look at his 6.5 ppg average in two games against Louisville this year). At the same time they don't have anybody inside who can stay with Cunningham or back him down and get him into foul trouble. They also will struggle to score inside if the deep shots aren't falling. They are flawed for sure, but they have all the experience in the world and Howland is a great coach, so overall this matchup scares me. Thank god for the homecourt advantage, which pretty much makes this one a tossup.
VCU
Remember the name Eric Maynor - he could be this year's Stephen Curry. Yes, he's that good. As a sophomore, he led VCU to a first round upset over Duke. Now he's a senior averaging 22 points per game and is likely an NBA 1st round pick. As a result, VCU seems to be the trendy first round upset pick, with lots of people taking them to knock off UCLA. Without taking anything away from Scottie, if we play VCU, Maynor will be the best guard on the floor. They also have a 6'10" shot blocker and rebounder in Larry Sanders who could potentially give Dante some trouble. So they match up well against our star players. However, they don't have nearly as much quality depth as our team. To win a game like this, it would likely come down to guys like Anderson, Redding, Stokes and Fisher winning their individual matchups against VCU's role players. In that case, I like our chances. But you saw what Stephen Curry single-handedly did to the bracket last year, so anything is possible given Maynor's talent level.
I love the #3 seed (mainly cause it keeps us as far away from the #1's as possible) and the fact that we are playing in Philly, but make no mistake - this will be no cakewalk. Every team in our pod this weekend is a tough, experienced, defensive-minded team that knows how to win close games. On the bright side, we didn't draw anybody with a superior size advantage, which should help keep Cunningham out of foul trouble (the # 1 key to our success).
AMERICAN
American starts 5 seniors, has quality guards and NCAA experience from last year when they were tied with #2 seed Tennessee with five minutes to play. Did I mention they are one of the top 3-point shooting % teams in the tournament and held teams to a mere 58 points per game this season? Pretty much a perfect recipe to be a Cinderella. That said, they don't come close to our talent level and their starting backcourt contains two guys that are about 5'8" and 5'10", so they will have to play near-perfect basketball to beat us. But if you don't think thats possible, then you don't know March Madness. Jay needs to set the defensive tone early and then let our guys do their thing on offense - I think we have too much talent and size for them to keep us from scoring. But if we let them knock down open 3s and hang around, the pressure will build on us.
The Anti-jinx disclaimer:
IF we are lucky enough to get by American, our 2nd round opponent will either be UCLA or VCU.
UCLA
UCLA is an underrated 6-seed. They aren't as good as last year when they were a 1 seed but they still probably should've been a 4 or a 5 seed. They have 3 very good seniors in Collison, Shipp and Aboya who have played in the last 3 Final Fours, so they have more NCAA tournament experience than any team in the entire field. They like to slow it down, play tough D and methodically pick you apart - as a result they lead the nation in field goal percentage. Darren Collison is one of the best perimeter defenders in the country and the thought of him harrassing Scottie Reynolds all game does not sound fun. (If you want to know what excellent perimeter D can do to Scottie, take a look at his 6.5 ppg average in two games against Louisville this year). At the same time they don't have anybody inside who can stay with Cunningham or back him down and get him into foul trouble. They also will struggle to score inside if the deep shots aren't falling. They are flawed for sure, but they have all the experience in the world and Howland is a great coach, so overall this matchup scares me. Thank god for the homecourt advantage, which pretty much makes this one a tossup.
VCU
Remember the name Eric Maynor - he could be this year's Stephen Curry. Yes, he's that good. As a sophomore, he led VCU to a first round upset over Duke. Now he's a senior averaging 22 points per game and is likely an NBA 1st round pick. As a result, VCU seems to be the trendy first round upset pick, with lots of people taking them to knock off UCLA. Without taking anything away from Scottie, if we play VCU, Maynor will be the best guard on the floor. They also have a 6'10" shot blocker and rebounder in Larry Sanders who could potentially give Dante some trouble. So they match up well against our star players. However, they don't have nearly as much quality depth as our team. To win a game like this, it would likely come down to guys like Anderson, Redding, Stokes and Fisher winning their individual matchups against VCU's role players. In that case, I like our chances. But you saw what Stephen Curry single-handedly did to the bracket last year, so anything is possible given Maynor's talent level.
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